Beneath Mali’s coups lies a struggle between fear, faith, and fading democracy

His landslide victory in the elections showed that Malians were eager to reinstate the nation’s democratic status. 

Five years later, Keita was re-elected to continue his mandate in serving the people of Mali. But in the midst of a global coronavirus pandemic, sluggish reforms, a collapsing economy, deteriorating public services and schools, and a widely held belief that his government was corrupt, Keita was overthrown on August 18, 2020—the first of a wave of military coup d'états to hit the Sahel over the next three years.

Assimi Goita, Mali’s army general and president, masterminded the two coup plots that hit the nation in 9 months. In the August 2020 coup, Goita was installed as vice president of a transition government, and civilian Bah Ndaw as president, promising to hold elections in 18 months.

But soon after, a struggle for dominance broke out between the two sides as each sought to increase its influence.

Ndaw removed military leaders who had played a crucial role in the August coup when he reorganised the cabinet on May 24, 2021. He was detained by the military later that day, and a few hours later, Goita extended military rule and proclaimed himself president.

A study, which took place in Mali in July 2021, almost a year after the first military coup and only weeks after the second coup led by then Colonel Goita, found that when asked directly, 74.0% of respondents claimed to support the military regime, and only 24.7% of respondents claimed to trust the foreign armed forces.

However, using the List Experiment (LE), a different technique used to measure true opinions on sensitive topics — things they might not want to admit directly — the survey found that the support for the military regime was only 63.2%, meaning support was over-reported by 10.8 percentage points, and trust in foreign armed forces was 36%, significantly underreported by 11.6 percentage points.

People claimed support, given the politically tense and non-democratic environment of Mali, expressing support for the ruling military regime was the socially desirable and safest response, given the strong anti-foreign sentiment prevalent at the time and the fear of repression associated with criticising the government.

According to the researchers, “The opposite direction of misreporting of these two political attitudes is consistent with the military regime’s strong opposition to the international coalition led by France in Mali at the time of our survey.”

A year after Goita had overthrown Ndaw to proclaim himself leader of the West African nation, the last of the French troops stationed in Mali to fight against Islamic insurgency left the country, completing a withdrawal that ended the nine-year Operation Serval—carried out in response to an attack in the northern part of the country by the ethnic-Tuareg separatist movement that had partnered with an al-Qaeda affiliate.

In a constitutional referendum held in June 2023, 97% of voters favoured changes which granted the president the power to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and cabinet members. Out of 8.4 million registered voters, only 39.4% took part in the referendum. 

Opponents of the new constitution claimed that it would reduce the likelihood of democratic reforms and that the referendum had been tainted.

Goïta disbanded all political parties in May 2025 and indefinitely postponed the 2024 elections. The National Transitional Council granted Goita a five-year term on July 3, 2025, which can be renewed "as many times as necessary" and without an election.