Beyond referendum, Taiwan urged to explore advanced nuclear power options

William Hao-Wei Yang, a Northeast Asia analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Taiwan would be better off investing in safer and more sustainable approaches to nuclear power than leaning on defunct facilities. 

“I do believe that the decision of not continuing that decades-old power plant for the safety risk reasons and the sustainability reasons, and also the nuclear waste processing issues are valid,” Yang told Global South World.  

Bringing an ageing facility back online is not a long-term solution, he added. 

“When it comes back to the particular issue of whether restarting a decommissioned nuclear power plant is the solution or not, I hold some doubt against the argument that restarting that should be the primary solution that Taiwan needs to consider.”

Taiwan once operated three nuclear facilities with six total reactors, but the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) pledged to phase out nuclear power after coming to office in 2016.

The Chinshan plant, the country’s first, saw its two reactors closed in December 2018 and July 2019. At the Kuosheng site, the first unit was expected to run until late 2021 but was shut down months earlier because of limited storage space for spent fuel, while the second unit ceased operation in March 2023.

Work on the Lungmen power station, launched in 1999, was repeatedly delayed by political and legal disputes. Unit 1 was placed in long-term storage in 2015, while construction of Unit 2 was halted the year before.

Yang said Saturday’s referendum would be critical both to Taiwan’s future energy resilience and the Democratic Progressive Party’s promise of a nuclear-free homeland.

“The current government's legitimacy and credibility as an advocate for a nuclear-free Taiwan hinges on the outcome of this referendum,” he said. “But of course, I think there are other realistic steps that will be taken before an actual restart of the nuclear power plant.” 

“It's not a very easy process to just say if the referendum's outcome favours restarting the nuclear power plan, then that would then immediately lead to the restart of that power plant,” Yang added. 

Dependence on imports

Another factor shaping the debate is Taiwan’s reliance on imported energy, which accounts for more than 97% of supply. 

Pro-nuclear groups argue this leaves the island vulnerable to global market shifts and geopolitical risks.

“That (importing) would basically force the country to be in a vulnerable position if the supply gets disrupted by commercial reasons or there are disputes between Taiwan and the source of the country that it usually imports those energy sources,” Yang said. 

“If one day China decided to disrupt the shipping of those energy sources into Taiwan, then that would suddenly make Taiwan very vulnerable and exposed,” he added. 

Concerns about a potential Chinese blockade, however, were unlikely to weigh heavily on voters in this referendum, according to Yang. 

“If Taiwan is able to ensure its imported energy supply remains steady, and also ensures that it has the ability to try to deal with potential challenges that could disrupt these energy import schedules, then whether to restart the nuclear power plant or not will have little to do with Taiwan's current status or state of energy supply.”

Saturday’s vote will also be crucial to Taiwan’s flagship semiconductor industry. 

As the world’s biggest manufacturer of advanced chips, the country’s Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) alone accounts for about 8% of total usage, a figure projected to rise to 24% by 2030.

“As Taiwan continues to attract more high-end semiconductor chip manufacturing and tries to increase its pivot toward the AI chip production becoming a hub, the energy supply, both the stability of that and also the sustainability, has come into question,” Yang said. 

Looking beyond the referendum, Yang said Taiwan must prepare for the future rather than the past. 

“In order for Taiwan to become more resilient, it is necessary to consider other, much safer and more advanced and developed new power that might involve some type of safer nuclear source,” he said.