Kast wins Chile's presidency, deepening regional shift to law-and-order politics

By Alexander Villegas and Fabian Cambero

Jose Antonio Kast won Chile's presidential election on Sunday, leveraging voter fears over rising crime and migration to steer the country in its sharpest rightward shift since the end of the military dictatorship in 1990.

Kast secured a commanding 58% of the vote in a runoff with leftist candidate Jeannette Jara, who won 42% and swiftly conceded.

Throughout his decades-long political career, Kast has been a consistent right-wing hardliner. He has proposed building border walls, deploying the military to high-crime areas, and deporting all migrants in the country illegally.

His victory marks the latest win for the resurgent right in Latin America. He joins Ecuador's Daniel Noboa, El Salvador's Nayib Bukele, and Argentina's Javier Milei. In October, the election of centrist Rodrigo Paz ended almost two decades of socialist rule in Bolivia.

The campaign was Kast's third run at the presidency and second runoff, after losing to leftist President Gabriel Boric in 2021. Once seen by many Chileans as too extreme, he has attracted voters increasingly worried about crime and immigration.

His definitive win, even in parts of Chile that traditionally vote for leftist candidates, was also likely driven by voter rejection of Jara, who as a member of the Communist Party was seen by many as too extreme, said Claudia Heiss, a political scientist at the University of Chile.

Kast supporters arrived at the president-elect's campaign headquarters in Santiago on Sunday evening, waving Chile flags. Some wore red caps emblazoned "Make Chile Great Again."

Ignacio Segovia, a 23-year-old engineering student, was among them.

"I grew up in a peaceful Chile where you could go out in the street, you had no worry, you went out and you never had problems or fear," he said. "Now you can't go out peacefully."

KAST MAY FACE OPPOSITION FROM DIVIDED CONGRESS

While Chile remains one of the safest countries in Latin America, violent crime has spiked in recent years as organized crime groups have taken root, capitalizing on the country's porous northern desert borders with coca-producing neighbors Peru and Bolivia, major international marine ports, and surge of migrants susceptible to human and sex trafficking.

The vast majority of migrants in Chile illegally have arrived from Venezuela in recent years, government data shows.

Kast's proposals include creating a police force inspired by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to rapidly detain and expel migrants in the country illegally.

He has also touted massive cuts in public spending.

Chile is the world's largest copper producer and a major producer of lithium, and expectations of less regulation and market-friendly policies have already buoyed the local stock market, peso and equity benchmark.

However, Kast's more radical proposals are likely to face pushback from a divided Congress. While right-wing parties won seats in both legislative houses in a November general election, most of those gains came from more traditional parties. The Senate is evenly split between left and right-wing parties, while the swing vote in the lower legislative body belongs to the populist People's Party.

He will have to satisfy a wide electoral base, said Guillermo Holzmann, a political analyst and professor at the University of Valparaiso.

"It is clear that not everyone who voted for Kast is from his party. That is, much of his vote is borrowed," he said.

That fact may stay Kast's hand on policies like abortion. He has previously been outspoken against abortion and the morning-after pill, but rarely spoke about it during the recent campaign. Changing the country's abortion laws would require the support of more than half of the Congress - and polls suggest most Chileans support existing rights.