China’s population is falling again, but why?

China’s demographic decline has deepened again, raising fresh questions about whether the country can successfully persuade a younger generation to start families amid rising costs and shifting social attitudes. 

New figures show China’s population fell for a fourth consecutive year in 2025, alongside the lowest birth rate recorded since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949.

According to data released by China’s National Bureau, the birth rate dropped to 5.63 births per 1,000 people, while the population decreased by a little over 3 million in 2025. The number of births fell to 7.92 million, while deaths rose to 11.31 million, further widening the gap between new births and ageing-related mortality.

“By the end of 2025, the national population was 1,404.89 million (including the population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities and servicemen, but excluding residents of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and foreigners living in the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities), a decrease of 3.39 million over that at the end of 2024,” parts of the report read.

The falling birth rate continues to shape China’s long-term economic outlook, even as the country reported stronger-than-expected growth. Novinite reported that China still achieved 5% economic expansion in 2025, in line with the government’s target of “around 5%”.

Officials have been experimenting with more aggressive measures to lift fertility. China has moved from decades of strict population control to “new measures to encourage larger families”, including policies ranging from education support to new tax rules.

A report by Euronews states that among the most debated steps is the end of a long-standing tax exemption on contraceptives. From 1 January 2026, condoms and other contraceptives are “no longer exempt from taxation” and will now face a 13% value-added tax. 

At the same time, officials are offering incentives aimed at easing the financial strain of childcare. Euronews says families will receive what the government calls a “fertility bonus” of 3,600 yuan (over €430) per child per year until the age of three.

 For many Chinese couples, however, the decision to have children is shaped less by policy announcements and more by day-to-day realities. It includes housing pressures, job insecurity, and the emotional cost of raising children in an intensely competitive society.

The numbers suggest that for now, Beijing’s birth-rate push remains an uphill battle.