Democracy in Africa is declining — Opinion

For decades, it promised Africans the benefits of democracy as a form of freedom and prosperity for its people; it then offered assistance in the form of grants-in-aid, loans for development and security arrangements to keep them safe. But this “assistance” invariably translated into a slew of “strings attached” -- like economic austerity directives from the IMF, compliance with Western political diktats, and a Western military presence. The new Alliance of Sahel States is the latest and most substantive response to such “Western assistance” (in this case from the French) over many decades.

After years of gradual decline in Africa in general, the same is now occurring in South Africa, specifically -- Western-style democracy seems to be losing its lure. The number of citizens supporting military rule has surpassed those opposing it.

Democracy: losing its allure in South Africa?

South Africans were asked the question: Is democracy the best form of government? Their response was surprising – at least to the West. Less than 50 percent said they preferred democracy to any other form. The results of the survey illustrate a growing dissatisfaction with democracy as the preferred form of government across the African continent.

The proportion of citizens supporting military rule in the country has surpassed those opposing it. For the first time in more than two decades – more support the military (rather than elected civilians) in assuming leadership of the country. 

Most South Africans, the report reveals, are dissatisfied with democracy as a form of political system. “…seven in 10 South Africans are dissatisfied with the way democracy functions in the country.”

The negative responses toward democracy are high among the middle-aged population, but even more so among the unemployed and economically disadvantaged. The common consensus within these groups was their perception that the politicians were ignoring their concerns.

Among the issues noted of concern to the respondents listed unemployment as the most serious – followed by crime, security, water, infrastructure, and corruption. The sense from the findings indicates that these seemingly intractable issues leave the population, generally, in a state of frustration. 

Not surprisingly, the report reflects concerns with the new South African administration. While 40 percent of the population believes the Government of National Unity (GNU) is effective, another 40 percent disagrees, feeling it is less than effective in solving the country’s most pressing problems.

Political analyst Stephen Friedman described the trend as part of a broader global phenomenon. “Around the world, there is a great deal of dissatisfaction with democracy,” he explained. “It’s not that people have stopped believing in democratic values; it’s that the kind of democracy they experience no longer meets their needs.”

Friedman noted that many South Africans feel disconnected from political decision-making, with power concentrated in the hands of a few elites. “The problem with the model of democracy that has been sold to us for the past 30 years is that citizens have very little control over anything,” he said.

The growing openness to military rule -- a system once unthinkable in South Africa’s democratic landscape -- should serve as a wake-up call for leaders, and Western politicians in particular. It reflects not only a loss of confidence in political institutions but also a deep yearning for stability and effective governance.

Friedman added that voter apathy is another sign of alienation. “It’s no surprise that many South Africans are choosing not to vote,” he said. “When citizens feel their voices don’t matter, disengagement becomes inevitable.”

Democracy’s decline in Africa in general

Yet, this is neither a new phenomenon nor one limited to South Africa. According to the latest edition of the Afrobarometer report (2024), titled “African Insights: Democracy at risk – People’s perspective,” more than half of Africans (53% across 39 countries) are willing to accept a military takeover if elected leaders abuse power for their own ends.

“On average across 39 countries, support for democracy remains robust: Two-thirds (66%) of Africans say they prefer democracy to any other system of government, and large majorities reject one-man rule (80%), one-party rule (78%), and military rule (66%),” the report stated.

It noted that, “across 30 countries surveyed consistently over the past decade, support for democracy has declined by 7 percentage points, including by 29 points in South Africa and 23 points in Mali. Opposition to military rule has weakened by 11 points.

Political analyst Siyabonga Ntombela concurred with the 2024 report’s findings. The trend is not unique to South Africa. “This is happening continentally. There are a number of countries that are following Ibrahim Traore of Burkina Faso’s style of leadership. These countries appear to benefit more under the military rule than they have under years of democracy,” he said.

Ntombela explained that local politics also plays a role in this shift. “The majority of ANC faction parties (EFF and MKP) are predicated on military ideals,” he added. “They venerate leaders such as Thomas Sankara, Che Guevara, Fidel Castro and others. The material conditions have remained unchanged for the poor. Therefore, such an alternative rule promises hope for the downtrodden of the country.”

And this trend is also found among Africa’s youth. Younger Africans are more accepting of military rule, according to the Afrobarometer survey. Fifty-six percent accept a military takeover when civilian leaders abuse power. Sixty percent of youth are dissatisfied with the functionality of democracy in their respective countries. And forty percent believe their elected leaders are corrupt.

Ntombela warns that a rise in support for military-style rule could come with grave consequences. “With military rule, violence is inevitable. People like Frantz Fanon claim that violence is a necessary condition to decolonise and usher in true freedom,” he said

Across Africa, democracy is being tested – by rising authoritarianism and military coups as well as a growing disconnect between citizens and the institutions meant to represent them.

The latest flagship assessments noted above deliver a powerful warning. Over 60 percent of Africans are dissatisfied with how democracy works in their countries. Support for democracy, generally, remains not insubstantial, but belief in its effectiveness is fading, especially when citizens feel excluded from meaningful participation in decisions that affect them.

To state it succinctly: the crisis of participation results from people being absent from the room when decisions that affect them are made, and often that room is in London, Paris or Washington D.C.

The opinions and thoughts expressed in this article reflect only the author's views.

Dr. Wolf is director of The Fulcrum Institute, a new organisation of current and former scholars, which engages in research and commentary, focusing on political and cultural issues on both sides of the Atlantic. Our interest is in American foreign policy as it relates to the economic and foreign policies of the NATO countries, the SCO, the BRICS+ nation-states and the Middle East.

After service in the USAF (Lt.Col.-Intel) Dr. Wolf obtained a PhD-philosophy (University of Wales), MA-philosophy (University of S. Africa), MTh-philosophical theology (Texas Christian University-Brite Div.). He taught philosophy, humanities and theology in the US and S. Africa before retiring from university.