Does the world really care about democracy in Africa? Eigenrac election analysis

TLDR: Nearly 30 million Africans will vote in September 2025 across Malawi, Guinea, Seychelles, and Gabon. The spotlight is on Guinea and Gabon, where post-coup regimes are staging pivotal votes that claim to restore civilian rule but appear designed to entrench military dominance. For international partners, the dilemma is stark: support stability packaged as democracy, or confront the risk of authoritarian consolidation in states undergoing fragile transitions.

What’s at stake?

The election schedule for September is exceptionally important. The focus is on Gabon's legislative and municipal elections on September 27 and October 11, as well as Guinea's constitutional referendum on September 21, while Malawi and Seychelles get ready for regular elections.  Both are milestones in transitions launched by coups - Guinea in 2021, Gabon in 2023 - testing whether military rulers can deliver credible civilian pathways or simply rebrand authoritarian rule.

If approved, these procedures could normalize coup-born regimes that use controlled elections to manage transitions. If they fail, they run the risk of instability, unrest, and further undermining of faith in democracy.

The background

Under General Mamady Doumbouya, Guinea has pledged a "return to constitutional order," but repression has already tainted the country's referendum.  The proposed charter establishes a Senate with elections scheduled for December 2025 and a presidential term that is renewable every seven years.  However, the junta suspended ousted leader Alpha Condé's party and several other major opposition parties in late August.  Since 2022, protests have been prohibited, dozens of parties are still suspended, and media regulators have cautioned media outlets against covering opposition activities, all of which may damage credibility and increase the likelihood of future violence.  Conakry has seen a noticeable increase in security in advance of the referendum on September 21.  Especially in opposition strongholds, police patrol roads, intersections, and marketplaces with the support of assault rifle units and armoured vehicles equipped with water cannons. The regime has deployed forces to “prevent” planned demonstrations, firing warning shots and reportedly abducting several pro-democracy activists in a chilling prelude to vote day, signalling a determination to contain dissent.

Although Gabon is further along, it is equally dominated by the military. After the Bongo dynasty was overthrown in 2023, General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema won almost 95% of the vote to become president in April 2025.  His administration eliminated the prime minister's position, extended presidential terms, and amended the constitution to permit military candidates.  Election supervision was transferred to the Interior Ministry, and more than 200 parties were eliminated.  The first elections since the coup will take place in September and October, but expectations of competition are minimal, and discontent stirs among the dozens of candidates who have faced seemingly arbitrary rejection. 

Comment: freedom through suppression?

Guinea and Gabon show a recurring pattern: juntas turning to ballots to claim legitimacy without ceding real power. Their transitions are hailed as milestones under regional and international pressure, yet in practice rely on opposition suppression and institutional dominance. 

Guinea’s transition illustrates how elections are being leveraged less as pathways to democracy and more as instruments of regime consolidation. The junta is not only repressing domestic opposition but also aligning itself with external actors in ways that unsettle Western partners. Geographically, Conakry has become an ideal entry point into the Sahel: Russian vessels dock with minimal scrutiny, unlike in other coastal states such as Côte d’Ivoire or Cameroon, allowing sanctioned arms shipments to move into Mali and beyond. 

For Europe and the United States, these dynamics sharpen the dilemma. Supporting Guinea’s referendum risks legitimizing a transition that facilitates both authoritarian consolidation and Russian influence. Yet disengagement carries its own costs, potentially ceding more ground to Moscow in a strategically sensitive corridor.

The preservation of stability in Gabon has come at the expense of pluralism.  Hundreds of parties have been marginalized, meaningful competition has been excluded, and power has been concentrated in the military and the presidency as a result of the tightly managed transition.  Although this strategy has prevented immediate turmoil, it runs the risk of solidifying a precarious balance that might break down if the promised economic benefits and reforms don't come to pass.

The elections exacerbate a well-known conundrum for regional and global players like the African Union, ECOWAS, the EU, and the US: accept stability dressed as democracy, or demand reform and risk alienating regimes that control the levers of security.

Assessment: predictable near-term outcomes

Outcomes are predictable in the short term. Guinea's referendum will most likely pass, opening the door for elections in December, but without opposition involvement, the results will lack credibility and may incite unrest. Through loyalist assemblies, Gabon's elections will further Oligui's dominance. Votes in Malawi and Seychelles should go smoothly with minimal regional repercussions.

In the medium term, Guinea faces a realistic possibility of instability. Its history of violent contestation, combined with restricted civic space, could trigger backlash once results are imposed. Gabon is almost certain to remain outwardly stable, but if reforms stall, the exclusion of opposition and weakened checks could exacerbate unrest.

For Europe and other partners, both cases present challenges. Guinea’s volatility could affect migration and security in West Africa’s Sahel-to-coast corridor. Gabon, an oil producer with strong commercial ties to France and other European partners, raises the question of how far Europe will accommodate an entrenched military elite so long as order and resource flows are maintained.

Conclusion: a barometer for democracy

Africa's democratic struggle is brought to light by the elections in September 2025.  Guinea and Gabon are holding historic elections that should signal a shift toward civilian governance but run the risk of solidifying military rule instead.  For Africans, democratic renewal is still uncertain.  The dilemma facing Europe is whether to embrace authoritarian stability masquerading as democracy or to pursue true civilian transition, with all of the risks entailed. 

• This report is compiled by Eigenrac exclusively for Global South World. Eigenrac is a Dubai-based boutique consultancy specialising in security risk management services, with a global presence and deep understanding of complex business risk environments.