Farmers in Pakistan fear consequences after India suspends life-saving water treaty

This treaty governs water distribution from the Indus River system, which is vital for around 80% of Pakistan’s agricultural needs.

In July 2023, heavy rains and flooding caused further distress when Ali Haider Dogar, a farmer, saw his crops submerged after India released water from the Sutlej River to address its own flood issues. Dogar described the situation as devastating, with losses totalling tens of thousands of pounds for his family alone.

Locals are now facing a dire future as India halted the treaty rights, following a deadly attack on tourists in Kashmir attributed by India to Pakistani involvement. Along with the treaty’s suspension, India has cut trade ties, expelled Pakistani diplomats, and stopped visas for Pakistani nationals. In response, Pakistan too has halted all trade and shut down its airspace to India.

The implications are severe, especially as Khalid Khokhar, president of the Farmers’ Association, highlighted, “Water is our life. We can’t compromise on it.” Farmers like him see water security threatened, fearing a future where India might cause floods or prevent water from flowing to their lands. This fear hinges on the lack of shared data concerning floods or dam projects, which could put their crops at risk.

Authorities in Pakistan are viewing the treaty's halt as an existential threat, invoking language like “an act of war.” It’s significant to note that the Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, has endured three wars between the two nations and is hailed as a successful example of international water-sharing.

At the time of partition in 1947, all the river sources were in India, leading to complex negotiations before the treaty was established. Farmers are increasingly anxious as rainfall is already low and water levels are dwindling.

Both countries’ officials and experts are cautioning that while India cannot immediately halt water flows due to the treaty’s strict regulations on dam construction, potential future disregard for these obligations poses severe risks.

Pakistani water expert Naseer Memon added that ignoring treaty obligations would lead to a humanitarian crisis with millions affected. A senior official in Pakistan, who chose to remain unnamed, claimed that India had long been contemplating a treaty withdrawal, and the recent Kashmir incident was merely a pretext. He urged the international community to intervene in this escalating situation, saying, “We can’t sit and allow India to do it.”