How Iran war could push over 30 million people into poverty, UN warns

What we know

• The United Nations warns that the ongoing conflict involving Iran could push more than 30 million people into poverty.
• Disruptions to fuel and fertiliser supplies, linked to blocked cargo through the Strait of Hormuz, are already affecting agricultural productivity.
• About one-third of global fertiliser supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Reduced fertiliser access is expected to lower crop yields later in the year.
• The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has warned that prolonged disruption could trigger a global food “catastrophe.”
• Countries most at risk include India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Kenya, and Egypt.
• The conflict has also caused energy shortages and declining remittances.
• Global GDP has already declined by between 0.5% and 0.8% due to the conflict.
• Humanitarian operations are under strain, with aid routes disrupted and funding levels declining.
• Delays in aid delivery are expected to worsen conditions in already vulnerable regions.

What they said

UNDP administrator Alexander De Croo said, “Even if the war would stop tomorrow, those effects, you already have them, and they will be pushing back more than 30 million people into poverty.” He warned, “Food insecurity will be at its peak level in a few months – and there is not much that you can do about it,” and added, “Things that take decades to build up, it takes eight weeks of war to destroy them.” On humanitarian impacts, he said, “We will have to say to certain people, really sorry, but we can’t help you… People who would be surviving on help will not have this, and will be pushed into even greater vulnerability.”