Singapore’s fertility rate hits record low; 30,000 citizens a year needed to close gap

Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong said on February 26 that if current trends continue, Singapore’s citizen population could begin to shrink by the early 2040s without further intervention.

The TFR measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years. At 0.87, the figure is far below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population without immigration.

Gan warned that persistently low birth rates would make it increasingly difficult to reverse the decline, as fewer women would be of childbearing age in the future. He said the government’s top priority remains supporting Singaporeans in marriage and parenthood.

At the same time, he stressed the need for a “carefully managed immigration flow” to supplement the low birth rate. The government expects to grant between 25,000 and 30,000 new citizenships annually over the next five years. About 25,000 people became citizens in 2025, up from an annual average of 21,300 between 2020 and 2024.

The number of new permanent residents is also projected to rise to around 40,000 a year. Authorities said immigration will be paced to ensure public infrastructure, including housing and transport, keeps up with population changes.

Singapore’s total population is expected to remain significantly below 6.9 million by 2030, a figure previously used as a planning parameter. Officials said it would take considerable time to reach that level under current trends.

Gan said low birth rates and an ageing population would have far-reaching effects on economic growth, national security and social cohesion.

“Low birth rates and an ageing population will profoundly reshape our nation, our society and our economy in the years ahead,” he said.

One in five citizens was aged 65 or older in 2025, compared with one in eight a decade ago. Resident births fell to about 27,500 in 2025, an 11 per cent drop from the previous year and the lowest number on record.