Somaliland: the world's 'newest country' is already the centre of global diplomatic machinations - World Reframed 26

With a population of around six million, an arid and drought-afflicted landscape, and an economy largely based on the export of sheep, goats and camels, Somaliland might not look like a major global player at first glance. Yet the world's newest country (at least for Israelis) sits at the heart of a growing regional power struggle that draws in actors from across the Middle East, Africa and beyond.

This interest came sharply into focus just after Christmas, when a short statement appeared on the Israeli government’s website. In it, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Somaliland for fighting terrorism and advancing regional peace and said he accepted its independent statehood. The announcement marked the latest and most controversial chapter in a long-running geopolitical contest over the Horn of Africa.

Two to one

To understand why so many powers are invested in Somaliland’s future, it is necessary to look back to the early twentieth century. What is now Somalia was once divided between two European colonial powers. The northwestern region, shaped like the head of a horse angled toward North Africa, was British Somaliland. The rest, stretching along the Indian Ocean coastline, was an Italian colony. The two territories were administered very differently. Britain was primarily concerned with supplying its naval base in Aden and took a limited interest in the development of British Somaliland. Italy, by contrast, pursued a more ambitious imperial project, establishing plantations and centralising governance in an effort to generate wealth.

In 1960, both territories gained independence and agreed to unite as the Somali Republic. But the new state faltered. A military coup in 1969 brought Siad Barre to power, ushering in a long dictatorship. When Barre was overthrown in 1991, the Somali state collapsed entirely. Amid the chaos, the former British Somaliland unilaterally declared independence. The move attracted little international attention at the time, as global efforts focused on preventing humanitarian catastrophes elsewhere in Somalia. Over the following decades, multinational interventions failed to stabilise the country, while piracy and militant groups, most notably al-Shabaab, flourished.

Since around 2012, however, conditions have improved somewhat. Somalia has re-emerged as a federal state, with Somaliland largely left to govern itself, and the neighbouring region of Puntland also enjoying significant autonomy from Mogadishu. Supporters of Somaliland argue that it has demonstrated political maturity through peaceful transfers of power and the development of its own legal and governmental institutions.

Israel's interest

Israel’s interest in Somaliland is not new. Contacts between the two date back several decades, perhaps driven by a shared sense of isolation. More significantly, Somaliland occupies a strategic position near the Bab el Mandeb strait, the narrow passage guarding the entrance to the Red Sea. This is one of the world’s most important shipping routes and one that could be disrupted with relative ease.

That geography has taken on heightened importance for Israel due to Iran’s presence across the strait in Yemen, where Tehran backs the Houthi movement. From Israel’s perspective, access to bases or partners in Somaliland would provide an opportunity to pressure the Houthis from the south as well as from Israeli territory itself.

The diplomatic push and pull extends far beyond Israel and Iran. The European Union, the African Union, and 21 Arab and African countries have condemned Israel’s move. Among them is Turkey, which has cultivated close security and commercial ties with the Somali government in Mogadishu and harbours its own regional ambitions. China has also voiced opposition, viewing the Horn of Africa as a critical node in its Belt and Road trade network. Beijing is deeply wary of secessionist movements, in part because of concerns about its own territorial integrity, and is sending its foreign minister to Somalia to signal support for the federal government.

But the United Arab Emirates stands out for its absence from the Arab condemnation. The UAE has recently been embroiled in a bitter split with Saudi Arabia over influence in the Gulf of Aden in Yemen. As it seeks to protect its investments and trade routes, tacit support for Somaliland could offer strategic advantages, particularly if the United States were to follow Israel’s lead in recognising the region. Saudi Arabia, by contrast, did sign the declaration opposing recognition.

The possibility of US involvement cannot be dismissed. Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed hostility toward Somalia, going out of his way to insult the country and its people. In that context, it is not difficult to imagine him backing a breakup of the Somali state.

Ethiopia also has a strong stake in the outcome. It is Africa’s second most populous country, yet it is landlocked. Any arrangement that recognised Somaliland in exchange for access to the coast would be highly attractive to Addis Ababa.

United States of the Horn of Africa

With so many countries involved, the implications of recognising Somaliland reach far beyond the Horn of Africa. Such a move would inevitably raise questions about other unrecognised or partially recognised territories, including Western Sahara, Kosovo, and perhaps most sensitively, Palestine.

Some scholars argue that the crisis could also be an opportunity. Writing for Global South World, Ethiopian academic Seifudein Adem has suggested a compromise in the form of a federation of Horn of Africa states, including Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti. He notes that tribal and clan relationships in the region often matter more than national affiliations, yet do not align neatly with existing borders. Whether the recognition of Somaliland would bring the United States of the Horn of Africa closer or push it further from reality remains an open question.

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World Reframed is produced in London by Global South World, part of the Impactum Group. Its editors are Duncan Hooper and Ismail Akwei.

ISSN 2978-4891