Thailand at a crossroads: What the February 8 election means for its politics
Thailand heads to the polls on Sunday, February 8, 2026, amid political uncertainty underscored by the three prime ministers it has had in as many years, and its recent ceasefire with Cambodia following border clashes that killed 149 people.
About 53 million of Thailand’s 71 million citizens are eligible to vote. They will elect 500 members of the House of Representatives.
Unlike previous elections, the appointed Senate will no longer participate in selecting the prime minister. A candidate for premier needs at least 251 votes in the House to assume office.
Voters will also cast a referendum ballot on whether to rewrite the 2017 constitution.
What are the main parties?
Bhumjaithai Party
Caretaker Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul leads Bhumjaithai, which has evolved from a minor kingmaker party into a major conservative force. The party gained prominence with its support for medical marijuana in 2019 and now positions itself as a staunch defender of the monarchy.
People’s Party
The progressive, youth-led People’s Party is the successor to reformist movements previously dissolved by the courts. It campaigns on reducing the political influence of unelected institutions such as the military and judiciary.
Pheu Thai Party
Pheu Thai has dominated Thailand’s political landscape for decades, often through populist policies and strong regional support in the north and northeast. Despite past setbacks — including the imprisonment of founder Thaksin Shinawatra and removal of multiple prime ministers — the party remains competitive, campaigning on Shinawatra nostalgia and economic support measures.
How will the elections be conducted?
While voting occurs on February 8, the prime minister will not be elected immediately.
Results must first be certified by the Election Commission, which has up to 60 days to confirm at least 95% of MPs — 475 of 500 — before Parliament can convene. This step is expected by April 9.
The first parliamentary session will follow, likely after the Songkran Festival, to elect the Speaker and Deputy Speakers. The Speaker plays a key role in controlling proceedings, setting agendas, and formally proposing the prime minister to the King.
The prime minister’s election in early May 2026 will reflect the outcome of coalition negotiations. A party or alliance must secure at least 251 votes in the House. Forming a stable government may be difficult, as no single party is expected to win a majority.
Once the prime minister is elected, the Cabinet will be formed and ministers appointed by royal decree.
The new government must present its policy statement to Parliament within 15 days, after which it can fully exercise authority. If the process proceeds smoothly, Thailand should have a fully functioning government by mid-June 2026.
What are the pressing issues?
Constitutional reform
Voters are also asked whether to replace the 2017 constitution, drafted under military rule. Even a “yes” vote does not guarantee a democratic charter, as amendments require parliamentary action, Senate approval, and further referendums. The final outcome depends on the post-election power balance.
Economic and social policies
Bhumjaithai focuses on economic stimulus, welfare expansion, border security, and maintaining monarchy protections. The People’s Party emphasizes abolishing conscription, supporting small businesses, and reforming bureaucracy. Pheu Thai campaigns on debt relief, income support for low earners, and a “millionaire maker” lottery program.
Border dispute with Cambodia
Last year’s clashes with Cambodia have fueled nationalist sentiment, benefiting Bhumjaithai while casting doubts on Pheu Thai’s candidates due to past controversies involving the Shinawatra family.
What’s next?
Thailand’s election is widely viewed as a test of whether the country can break its cycle of political instability, coups, and judicial interventions. However, even with high voter turnout, analysts have cautioned that forming a stable government will be challenging unless a party achieves a convincing majority.
Thus, February 8 vote marks the start of a complex transition of state power.
Over the next four months, the certification of results, parliamentary convening, prime minister selection, and Cabinet formation will determine whether Thailand can achieve political stability or continue its pattern of turbulence.
This story is written and edited by the Global South World team, you can contact us here.
