Thailand Roundup: Positive growth forecasts, strengthened border security, export expansion

Thailand’s economy exceeds expectations in late 2025

Thailand’s gross domestic product surpassed forecasts in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven primarily by strong performance in the industrial and retail sectors. The briefing notes that full-year economic growth reached 2.4%, supported by investment momentum and targeted electric vehicle incentives. Government stimulus measures and rising exports also contributed to the stronger-than-expected performance. The data reflect a broader recovery pattern, with industrial output and domestic consumption playing central roles. Export growth and state-led economic stimulus were key pillars underpinning the expansion.

Investment momentum and EV incentives shape economic recovery

Thailand’s economy ended 2025 stronger than expected, boosting confidence in the new government. Data from the NESDC showed GDP grew 2.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, up from 1.2% in Q3 and above market forecasts. Investment drove the late-year rebound, jumping 8.1% in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace since 2016 and up from 1.4% in Q3. Private investment rose 6.5%, led by spending on industrial machinery and office equipment as business confidence improved. The government’s EV 3.0 incentive scheme also spurred demand, with consumers rushing to buy electric vehicles before subsidies expired, lifting durable goods spending 12.2%. Overall household consumption grew 3.3%, supported by low inflation and loose monetary policy despite high household debt.

Demographic shift towards an ageing society pressures labour and welfare systems

Thailand’s population growth has slowed to 0.42%, the lowest rate since the census began, according to preliminary results from the National Statistical Office’s 2025 population and household census. The 12th population census and sixth household census recorded 70.3 million people and 26.3 million households. While the population is still rising, growth is slowing sharply, with annual births significantly down compared with previous years.

Security operations intensify along the northern and eastern borders

Smuggling syndicates along the Malaysia–Thailand border in Kelantan have shifted tactics, using sea routes and landing along the Kelantan River after tighter security at the Golok River. PGA Southeast Brigade Commander SAC Ahmad Radzi Hussain said syndicates are now bringing illegal immigrants by boat through tributaries to remote villages away from monitoring posts. Between Jan 1 and February 13, the PGA arrested 84 illegal immigrants (75 men, nine women). The largest group were Myanmar nationals (31), followed by Bangladeshis (19), Thais (17), Nepalis (10), Indians (4), Indonesians (2), and one Nigerian.

Government sets 2026 export targets

Thailand’s Commerce Ministry is aiming for Bt142bn in exports in 2026 through about 700 initiatives. Sunanta Kangvalkulkij said the plan could support over 294,500 Thai businesses. Measures include online promotion via thaitrade.com, trade fairs, business matching, overseas outreach, and franchise support. A US trade mission will run from February 24–28, with firms such as Otis McAllister Inc. joining talks on boosting Thai exports. In March, the Thailand’s Best Friend Project will honour around 20 major global importers, while the Special Task Force Project will target new markets including China, India, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, plus Africa and Latin America.