US poised to intervene in Iran as soon as next week, Eigenrac intelligence analysis suggests

The United States is most likely to launch military action against Iran during the first week of February, according to a geopolitical security assessment that warns the arrival of an aircraft carrier and mounting political pressure has created conditions for American intervention.

The assessment, dated 29 January, identifies the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and supporting assets as having "removed a key constraint that previously limited Washington's ability to act", making the threat of intervention "materially more credible" than earlier in the month.

Any strikes would likely target military and nuclear facilities rather than attempt to overthrow the Iranian government, with probable targets including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps installations, missile and drone infrastructure, air defence systems, command centres, and potentially nuclear-linked facilities.

The warning comes as Iran faces what the assessment describes as "its most serious internal security crisis in several years", following nationwide protests that erupted on 28 December in response to severe economic deterioration. What began as demonstrations over economic grievances rapidly escalated into direct challenges to government authority.

Ending the blackout

The most violent phase of the crackdown occurred on 8-9 January during a nationwide internet shutdown, when security forces used live ammunition in multiple cities. Whilst exact death tolls remain impossible to verify independently, activist networks, medical sources and diaspora groups commonly cite figures ranging from several thousand to tens of thousands killed, with some estimates exceeding 30,000 deaths nationwide during January.

The assessment notes these figures should be treated cautiously but states there is "broad agreement that casualty levels are significantly higher than in recent protest cycles and that lethal force was used systematically".

A critical factor in the intervention timeline is Iran's partial restoration of internet connectivity, which began on 28 January. Intelligence analysts expect this will result in the rapid release of previously suppressed footage and testimony documenting the killings, particularly from the deadliest period.

"Once this material circulates, it is likely to intensify international outrage and domestic political pressure on the US administration, narrowing the space for continued restraint," the assessment states.

US options narrow

US President Donald Trump issued a public warning on 2 January that the United States would intervene if Iranian authorities killed protesters, introducing explicit external pressure into the crisis. The assessment suggests this has created "a difficult strategic corner" for the president.

"He has publicly framed the crisis as one involving mass repression and has repeatedly signalled that the United States would not stand by if protesters were killed," the document notes. "Earlier arguments for caution, notably limited US assets in the region, no longer apply."

The assessment warns that symbolic measures alone, such as statements, condemnations or incremental sanctions, are "unlikely to be viewed as sufficient", significantly raising the probability that Washington will demonstrate resolve through action.

Iran's deterrence strategy

Iran is expected to emphasise deterrence whilst attempting to avoid moves that would immediately justify a large-scale American strike. This includes heightened rhetoric, internal hardening and proxy signalling designed to widen the perceived cost of intervention.

However, the assessment warns that if Iran is struck first or judges an attack is underway, direct responses including missile or drone strikes on American bases, naval assets or regional partners "become much more likely, not just plausible".

Most likely Iranian retaliation targets include US military bases across the Gulf, particularly Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and facilities in Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain and potentially the UAE and Turkey. Direct retaliation against Israel is also considered a realistic possibility if Tehran perceives Israeli involvement.

Senior Iranian clerics have warned that American-linked investments in the region could become targets, signalling a willingness to expand beyond purely military objectives to economic pressure points.

The Houthis in Yemen remain one of Iran's most effective tools for applying pressure, with their ability to threaten maritime traffic in the Red Sea allowing Tehran to impose economic disruption without direct confrontation. The assessment notes that even the threat of renewed Houthi activity can disrupt shipping routes, raise insurance premiums and affect global supply chains.

Regional implications

The document warns that Iran-aligned militias in Iraq represent "Tehran's most flexible and immediately usable response option", having already issued warnings they would act if Iran is attacked. However, even limited attacks on American facilities could prompt swift retaliation, potentially drawing Iraq into wider confrontation.

Hezbollah in Lebanon has publicly aligned itself with Tehran but appears constrained by Lebanon's economic struggles and the risk of overwhelming Israeli retaliation. The assessment notes that Hezbollah's involvement "would mark a sharp transition from contained escalation to regional conflict".

Gulf Cooperation Council states are expected to seek to avoid involvement or visible enablement of American strikes, though heightened force protection measures, airspace restrictions and operational disruption are likely. The assessment references strikes last year involving both Israel and Iran on Qatari territory as having demonstrated that Gulf states are not insulated from escalation.

Cities Under Siege

Inside Iran, Tehran remains the centre of gravity for both political control and security operations, with checkpoints, patrols and rapid-response units highly visible throughout the capital. Mashhad, Iran's second-largest city and a key religious and transport hub, has emerged as a major pressure point, with protests met with firm enforcement even in this traditionally conservative area.

Western Kurdish-majority regions, including Sanandaj and surrounding areas, remain among the most volatile, with security operations particularly heavy and marked by frequent confrontations and heavier weapons use.

The assessment concludes that the risk of miscalculation is elevated, noting that proxy activity, maritime disruption or incidents involving American forces "could quickly escalate beyond Tehran's intended thresholds, particularly once US assets are forward-positioned and operating at high readiness".