What ASEAN could gain from a Trump attendance in October summit
With less than a month before Southeast Asian leaders gather in Malaysia, attention has shifted to whether US President Donald Trump will attend the ASEAN Summit, a move that could reshape both the optics and substance of the high-profile event.
Support for Gaza
As in the recently concluded UN General Assembly, the Gaza conflict will likely dominate any encounter with the US president. Trump has positioned himself as a broker pushing Israel toward a ceasefire, but his close ties to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu complicate regional perceptions.
Malaysia’s Communications Minister, Fahmi Fadzil, said the summit provides ASEAN with a rare chance to directly confront Washington on the issue.
"Some have asked why a clearer message (of support for Palestine) wasn't sent by not inviting (Trump),” he said. "Actually, it would be easy for us to 'boycott' (the US), but the Prime Minister's (Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim) approach in many matters is that we need dialogue.”
"This is the most appropriate time to invite the US President. In addition to Malaysia stating its position, it gives other (summit) member countries the space to interact with and express their views to the US President," he continued.
Earlier this month, all ASEAN states backed a UN resolution reaffirming a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict, while Washington was among just 10 countries voting against.
Trade, US tariffs
Malaysia’s decision to extend an invitation to Trump may be rooted in trade realities: the United States is now Malaysia’s largest export market, overtaking China. Bilateral trade has nearly doubled over the past decade, reaching $78.3 billion in 2022.
Across the region, however, China remains ASEAN’s dominant partner, holding that position for 16 consecutive years. In the first seven months of 2025 alone, trade between China and ASEAN climbed to $597 billion, an 8.2% increase from the previous year.
In terms of overall strategic partnership, the US still holds an edge over China. A recent survey found 52.3% of Southeast Asian respondents favouring Washington as a long-term partner, compared with 47.7% for Beijing. These findings, however, came before Trump announced sweeping new tariffs, which have weighed heavily on ASEAN economies:
- Laos - 40%
- Myanmar - 40%
- Brunei - 23%
- Vietnam - 20%
- Malaysia - 19%
- Indonesia - 19%
- Thailand - 19%
- Philippines - 19%
- Cambodia - 19%
- Singapore - 10%
Regional defence
If and when Trump attends the October summit, regional defence will also be one of the main points expected to be raised with him. According to a Lowy Institute study, the US is Southeast Asia’s preferred military partner, specifically for joint exercises.
Trump has already drawn himself directly into ASEAN disputes. In July, when border clashes flared between Cambodia and Thailand, the self-styled anti-war leader stepped in to mediate.
A 26 July phone call from Trump to the leaders of both countries helped break a deadlock in negotiations. Two days later, a ceasefire was signed in Malaysia, ending some of the heaviest fighting between the neighbours in years.
Cambodia has since nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, citing his “historic contributions in advancing world peace.”
But the truce remains fragile. Thailand is still under a transitional government led by Anutin Charnvirakul, after former premier Paetongtarn Shinawatra was ousted on ethics charges linked in part to the border dispute.
Bangkok is now weighing the possibility of a referendum on whether to revoke two long-standing border agreements with Cambodia as a way to defuse tensions.
This story is written and edited by the Global South World team, you can contact us here.
