Which Asian economies face the biggest risk from the Iran war?

Oil prices have already surged as tensions escalated between Iran and the United States and Israel, raising fears that prolonged disruption to shipments could push crude above $100 a barrel.

This narrow waterway between Iran and Oman carried about 13 million barrels a day of crude in 2025 — roughly 31% of global seaborne crude flows — according to energy consultancy Kpler.

Any impact, however, will be uneven across Asia, with the most exposed economies those that rely heavily on imported energy or Middle Eastern supplies.

Thailand

Thailand stands out as one of the most vulnerable economies in the region.

Nomura said Thailand’s net oil imports amount to about 4.7% of gross domestic product (GDP), the highest share in Asia. The Japanese investment bank estimates that every 10% rise in oil prices could worsen Thailand’s current account balance by around 0.5 percentage points of GDP.

Research from Bank of America Global Research paints a similar picture, describing Thailand as having Asia’s largest negative energy trade balance. Net energy imports were estimated at about 6% of GDP in 2025, leaving the country particularly exposed to swings in global oil and gas prices.

Thailand imports roughly $29 billion worth of oil annually, with more than $17 billion sourced from the Middle East.

South Korea

South Korea is also highly exposed due to its near-total reliance on imported fossil fuels.

About 98% of the country’s oil and gas consumption comes from overseas, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Disruptions to shipping routes or sustained price increases therefore pose significant risks to both its economy and financial markets.

Those concerns were reflected in South Korea’s stock market this week. The benchmark Kospi index plunged more than 12% in early trading on Wednesday amid fears that escalating conflict in the Middle East could disrupt global energy supplies and trade.

Shipping and logistics companies were among the hardest hit as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply.

India

India is also considered vulnerable because of its heavy reliance on imported energy.

Nomura identified India among the Asian economies most exposed to higher oil prices, warning that sustained increases could significantly raise the country’s import bill.

In addition to higher crude costs, India could also face pressure from rising LNG prices as Asia competes with Europe for limited supplies if shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained.

Philippines

The Philippines faces particular exposure through its reliance on Middle Eastern crude.

Bank of America Global Research estimates that about 95% of the country’s oil imports come from the Middle East, making it one of the most dependent economies in the region on Gulf energy supplies.

Any disruption to shipping routes or sustained surge in prices could therefore translate quickly into higher domestic fuel costs and inflation.

Japan

Japan remains highly dependent on energy imports from the Middle East.

According to Bank of America Global Research, about 94% of Japan’s oil imports originate from the region. Analysts warn that supply disruptions or sustained price increases could therefore significantly affect Japan’s energy costs.

Nomura added that Japan typically maintains only two to four weeks of liquefied natural gas (LNG) stockpiles, limiting its ability to absorb prolonged supply disruptions.

Vietnam

Vietnam is also heavily reliant on Middle Eastern energy supplies.

Bank of America Global Research estimates that about 88% of the country’s oil imports come from the region, making it vulnerable to any disruption to shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Who could gain in Asia?

Not all Asian economies would be hit equally.

Malaysia, for example, could see higher government revenues as an oil and gas exporter if prices remain elevated.