Brazil is expected to remain the world’s dominant coffee producer in 2025, widening its lead over global rivals as demand for coffee continues to rise despite climate pressures and supply chain volatility affecting major growing regions.

According to data compiled from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), the International Coffee Organisation (ICO), Colipse Coffee and StatRanker, Brazil is projected to produce around 63 million 60-kg coffee bags in 2025, far ahead of second-place Vietnam at 30.8 million bags.

Brazil is also forecast to export more than 40 million bags, reinforcing its position as the backbone of the global coffee trade. The country accounts for roughly one-third of global coffee production and remains the world’s largest supplier of arabica beans, widely used in premium blends and espresso markets.

Vietnam, the second-largest producer, is expected to export nearly 27.9 million bags, driven largely by robusta coffee production. Robusta beans, which contain higher caffeine levels and are commonly used in instant coffee, have seen growing global demand amid rising Arabica prices.

Colombia ranks third with a projected production of 13.8 million bags, followed by Indonesia and Ethiopia, the birthplace of coffee, with estimated outputs of 12.45 million and 11.56 million bags, respectively.

In Africa, Uganda continues to strengthen its role in global coffee markets, with production expected to reach nearly 6.9 million bags, according to USDA estimates.

One notable trend in the data is that countries such as India, Honduras and Peru are projected to export more coffee than they produce domestically during the year. Analysts say this can occur due to carryover inventories from previous harvests, re-exports and stockpiled reserves entering international markets.

The global coffee industry has faced mounting pressure in recent years from extreme weather events linked to climate change. Brazil experienced severe drought and frost episodes between 2021 and 2023, while Vietnam and Colombia have also dealt with shifting rainfall patterns affecting crop yields.

The International Coffee Organisation has repeatedly warned that climate instability poses a growing long-term threat to coffee-growing regions, particularly for arabica production, which is highly sensitive to temperature changes.

Despite supply concerns, global coffee consumption continues to rise steadily. The USDA projects growing demand across Asia and emerging markets, while established markets in Europe and North America remain among the world’s largest consumers.

Industry analysts say tightening supplies and weather-related disruptions have contributed to elevated global coffee prices over the past two years, affecting everyone from multinational café chains to independent roasters.

What this really highlights is how a handful of producing nations continue to shape one of the world’s most traded agricultural commodities, even as climate risks increasingly threaten the future of global coffee production.

“We are inviting workers from many countries because we have a very serious shortage in labour force. Japan has traditionally been seen as very strict on immigration. That remains partially true in terms of the non-skilled labour force, but for skilled labour, we are very open and welcoming, he told Ismail Akwei at The Sedona Forum, organised by the McCain Institute in Arizona.

He also expressed Japan’s position in the ongoing U.S. and Israeli operations in Iran , calling for a quick resolution for ships and trade to operate freely and openly. 

“We are concerned about what's happening in the Hormuz right now, and would like to see that the situation is resolved as soon as possible. Japan relies 95% of their oil from the Hormuz. So, you know, we have a lot of stockpile, but we would be concerned if this continues much longer,” he said.

“Japan plays a very key role in the Indo-Pacific, where the late Prime Minister Abe advocated for a free and open Indo-Pacific area. So we want to ensure that ships and trade happen freely and openly in that region, which is a centre of business for not only Asia, but for Africa and other parts of the world,” he added.

Akihisa Shiozaki is the lead author of the LDP’s AI White Paper, which was recently relaunched after the 2023 landmark version, which laid the foundation for Japan’s AI Promotion Act 2025. He told Ismail Akwei that the AI White Paper is a strategy for Japan to adapt to Agentic AI, which uses large language models to achieve complex goals, rather than just generating text. 

“So Agentic AI, we believe, is a totally new form of human-machine collaboration, and the policy must adapt to those kinds of challenges. For example, what if an AI agent does a commercial transaction? Is that valid? If one AI claims that they've been deceived, how do you treat that under civil law? So these are all questions, legal questions and regulatory questions that countries need to start redesigning and shifting from an era where humans were the only players in society,” he explained.

Akihisa Shiozaki was a participant and one of the panellists at the McCain Institute’s signature annual event, the Sedona Forum , which provides a unique opportunity for United States and world leaders to have informal, face-to-face discussions about real solutions to the problems facing the world today. It is held each spring in the red rock country of Sedona, Arizona, to bring about positive change in national and world affairs.

Watch the full interview attached to this story.

While the euro is used by 20 of the EU’s 27 member countries, Poland, Romania, Denmark, Sweden, Czechia and Hungary have all chosen, or in some cases delayed, joining the eurozone, despite being part of the bloc’s single market.

The euro was officially introduced in 1999 for electronic transactions and entered circulation in 2002, becoming one of the world’s most traded currencies alongside the U.S. dollar. According to the European Central Bank (ECB), more than 340 million people currently use the euro across Europe.

However, adopting the euro requires countries to meet strict economic conditions known as the Maastricht criteria, including limits on inflation, government debt, budget deficits and exchange rate stability.

Among the six holdouts, Denmark remains the only country with a formal opt-out agreement negotiated during the Maastricht Treaty in the 1990s. The Danish krone is closely pegged to the euro through the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, effectively keeping its value stable against the common currency while preserving national monetary control.

Sweden, meanwhile, has repeatedly delayed adopting the euro after voters rejected the currency in a 2003 referendum. Although Sweden is technically obligated to join eventually, successive governments have avoided entering the exchange rate mechanism required for accession.

In Central and Eastern Europe, countries such as Poland, Hungary and Czechia have cited economic flexibility and monetary independence as key reasons for retaining their national currencies.

Poland’s zloty, for example, has often been viewed domestically as an important buffer against external economic shocks. During periods of inflation or slowing growth, governments and central banks can adjust interest rates and currency policy independently, tools that eurozone members surrender to the European Central Bank.

Hungary’s forint and Czechia’s koruna have similarly allowed policymakers greater control over domestic economic conditions, particularly during periods of volatility linked to energy prices, inflation and global market uncertainty.

Romania continues to target eventual euro adoption but has repeatedly postponed timelines due to inflation and fiscal challenges. The European Commission has previously stated that several non-Euro EU members still do not fully meet convergence requirements.