“When Arevalo won the election , it was seen as a victory that represented a rejection of corruption, democratic backsliding and elite impunity. But this reform momentum has been stalled due to entrenched elites that have captured institutions for a long time,” she said.

'Pacto de Corruptos'

Emilia Arellano pointed to what many Guatemalans refer to as the “pacto de corruptos” or “pact of the corrupt”, which is a loose description of political, judicial, bureaucratic and economic actors protecting their interests.

According to her, the strength of these networks lies in their ability to survive across administrations by adapting to changing political environments while maintaining influence over key institutions.

“They don’t represent a single ideology or political party. They are united by a single goal, which is to maintain impunity and protect their economic interests,” she explained.

“We see how judicial actors, judges and prosecutors, have been captured by this elite and now work in favour of them,” she said.

She warned that Guatemala’s judiciary has increasingly become a tool for political persecution rather than democratic oversight, and anti-corruption figures have been selectively targeted, with some forced into exile because of threats to their safety.

“The judicial system should be an independent actor. However, for a long time now, it has been used as a political instrument... No real reform or democratic change can happen if institutions are unable to provide the minimum freedoms and rights to people trying to reform the country,” she added.

Growing public frustration

Arellano said indigenous communities and civil society groups that mobilised to defend Guatemala’s election results in 2023 are now becoming increasingly frustrated by the slow pace of reform. She warned that continued disappointment could weaken democratic participation and open the door to populist alternatives across the region.

“Their vote was interpreted as a vote in favour of democracy. But this illusion rapidly faded because they have seen how little can be done when institutions are captured... We see democratic erosion, institutional distrust, and elites fighting for power. This becomes fertile ground for anti-establishment populism,” she said.

She described 2026 as a potentially decisive year for Guatemala because several institutions are expected to undergo leadership changes.

“There is still this idea that if there is a change in the heads of institutions, some changes can happen,” she said while cautioning that replacing leaders alone would not be enough if the wider bureaucratic system remains tied to elite interests.

“All the bureaucracy is still involved and taking part in some of these elite networks. These processes are not simple and require continued pressure from civil society and the international community,” she explained.

Lessons for Latin America

Looking beyond Guatemala, Emilia Arellano argued that the country reflects a wider regional pattern in Latin America, where democratic institutions formally exist but are often informally controlled by powerful networks.

She cited growing admiration in parts of the region for authoritarian-style leadership models such as Nayib Bukele in El Salvador.

“What we need to learn from Guatemala is that elections themselves are not enough to make real change. Democracy has to be defended from the structures and institutions themselves, not only through elections,” she said.

Watch the full interview attached to this story.