Brazil is expected to remain the world’s dominant coffee producer in 2025, widening its lead over global rivals as demand for coffee continues to rise despite climate pressures and supply chain volatility affecting major growing regions.

According to data compiled from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), the International Coffee Organisation (ICO), Colipse Coffee and StatRanker, Brazil is projected to produce around 63 million 60-kg coffee bags in 2025, far ahead of second-place Vietnam at 30.8 million bags.

Brazil is also forecast to export more than 40 million bags, reinforcing its position as the backbone of the global coffee trade. The country accounts for roughly one-third of global coffee production and remains the world’s largest supplier of arabica beans, widely used in premium blends and espresso markets.

Vietnam, the second-largest producer, is expected to export nearly 27.9 million bags, driven largely by robusta coffee production. Robusta beans, which contain higher caffeine levels and are commonly used in instant coffee, have seen growing global demand amid rising Arabica prices.

Colombia ranks third with a projected production of 13.8 million bags, followed by Indonesia and Ethiopia, the birthplace of coffee, with estimated outputs of 12.45 million and 11.56 million bags, respectively.

In Africa, Uganda continues to strengthen its role in global coffee markets, with production expected to reach nearly 6.9 million bags, according to USDA estimates.

One notable trend in the data is that countries such as India, Honduras and Peru are projected to export more coffee than they produce domestically during the year. Analysts say this can occur due to carryover inventories from previous harvests, re-exports and stockpiled reserves entering international markets.

The global coffee industry has faced mounting pressure in recent years from extreme weather events linked to climate change. Brazil experienced severe drought and frost episodes between 2021 and 2023, while Vietnam and Colombia have also dealt with shifting rainfall patterns affecting crop yields.

The International Coffee Organisation has repeatedly warned that climate instability poses a growing long-term threat to coffee-growing regions, particularly for arabica production, which is highly sensitive to temperature changes.

Despite supply concerns, global coffee consumption continues to rise steadily. The USDA projects growing demand across Asia and emerging markets, while established markets in Europe and North America remain among the world’s largest consumers.

Industry analysts say tightening supplies and weather-related disruptions have contributed to elevated global coffee prices over the past two years, affecting everyone from multinational café chains to independent roasters.

What this really highlights is how a handful of producing nations continue to shape one of the world’s most traded agricultural commodities, even as climate risks increasingly threaten the future of global coffee production.

While the euro is used by 20 of the EU’s 27 member countries, Poland, Romania, Denmark, Sweden, Czechia and Hungary have all chosen, or in some cases delayed, joining the eurozone, despite being part of the bloc’s single market.

The euro was officially introduced in 1999 for electronic transactions and entered circulation in 2002, becoming one of the world’s most traded currencies alongside the U.S. dollar. According to the European Central Bank (ECB), more than 340 million people currently use the euro across Europe.

However, adopting the euro requires countries to meet strict economic conditions known as the Maastricht criteria, including limits on inflation, government debt, budget deficits and exchange rate stability.

Among the six holdouts, Denmark remains the only country with a formal opt-out agreement negotiated during the Maastricht Treaty in the 1990s. The Danish krone is closely pegged to the euro through the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, effectively keeping its value stable against the common currency while preserving national monetary control.

Sweden, meanwhile, has repeatedly delayed adopting the euro after voters rejected the currency in a 2003 referendum. Although Sweden is technically obligated to join eventually, successive governments have avoided entering the exchange rate mechanism required for accession.

In Central and Eastern Europe, countries such as Poland, Hungary and Czechia have cited economic flexibility and monetary independence as key reasons for retaining their national currencies.

Poland’s zloty, for example, has often been viewed domestically as an important buffer against external economic shocks. During periods of inflation or slowing growth, governments and central banks can adjust interest rates and currency policy independently, tools that eurozone members surrender to the European Central Bank.

Hungary’s forint and Czechia’s koruna have similarly allowed policymakers greater control over domestic economic conditions, particularly during periods of volatility linked to energy prices, inflation and global market uncertainty.

Romania continues to target eventual euro adoption but has repeatedly postponed timelines due to inflation and fiscal challenges. The European Commission has previously stated that several non-Euro EU members still do not fully meet convergence requirements.

The concert, part of her Las Mujeres Ya No Lloran world tour , attracted a crowd stretching across one of the world’s most famous beaches, according to city officials.

The turnout places Shakira among the top six most-attended free concerts of all time, a list historically dominated by mega-events in Brazil and Europe.

The Rio performance was more than just a concert. It was a large-scale cultural and economic event, designed in part to boost tourism and local spending between major holiday seasons.

City authorities estimate the show could generate around $150 million in economic activity, driven by hotel bookings, restaurants and international visitors.

Fans travelled from across Brazil and beyond, turning Copacabana into a sea of spectators as Shakira performed hits including Hips Don’t Lie and Waka Waka during a nearly three-hour set.

The performance also followed a growing tradition of mega free concerts in Rio, after Madonna’s 2024 show and Lady Gaga’s 2025 appearance drew similarly vast crowds.

While Shakira’s 2 million attendance figure ranks among the largest ever, the record remains with Rod Stewart, whose 1994 New Year’s Eve concert at the same Copacabana Beach drew an estimated 3.5 million people, according to Guinness World Records data.

Electronic music pioneer Jean-Michel Jarre also features prominently in the rankings, with multiple concerts exceeding 2.5 million attendees, including a Moscow performance in 1997.

Among female artists, Lady Gaga currently holds the record for the largest free concert crowd, with approximately 2.1 million attendees at Copacabana in 2025.

Shakira’s latest show, however, marks the largest free concert ever by a Latin artist and the biggest of her career, underscoring her global reach.

The rise of large-scale, city-sponsored concerts reflects a broader shift in the live music industry, where governments increasingly use cultural events to drive tourism and international visibility.

Rio’s “Todo Mundo no Rio” initiative, which hosts these free beach concerts, has rapidly become one of the world’s biggest live music platforms, attracting millions without traditional ticketing barriers.

For artists, these performances offer unmatched exposure. For cities, they serve as economic catalysts.

Unemployment across East Asia and the Pacific remains relatively moderate overall, but sharp disparities between smaller island economies and larger regional players are becoming increasingly visible, according to the latest World Bank data.

A visual ranking of unemployment rates highlights French Polynesia and New Caledonia as the hardest-hit labour markets in the region, with jobless rates of 11.7% and 11.2% respectively. These figures stand in stark contrast to the broader regional average of around 3.8%, underscoring uneven economic recovery and structural challenges.

The World Bank’s World Development Indicators show that most East Asian economies continue to maintain comparatively low unemployment levels by global standards, reflecting strong labour absorption in manufacturing, services, and informal sectors.

Smaller Pacific economies dominate the upper end of the unemployment rankings. Guam (5.6%), Fiji (5.3%), and Vanuatu (5.1%) all report rates well above the regional average, pointing to limited job diversification and heavy reliance on tourism and public sector employment.

“These economies are structurally more vulnerable to shocks,” the World Bank notes in its labour market datasets, particularly due to geographic isolation and narrow economic bases.

Among larger economies, China reported an unemployment rate of 4.6%, while Australia stood at 4.1% and Malaysia at 3.8%, broadly in line with or slightly above the regional average. Indonesia and Myanmar recorded lower rates of 3.2% and 3.0%, respectively.

New Zealand, despite being a high-income economy, posted a relatively elevated rate of 5.1%, reflecting tighter labour market conditions amid economic adjustments.

While overall unemployment appears contained, youth unemployment continues to present a more complex challenge. The World Bank estimates youth joblessness in developing East Asia and the Pacific at just over 13% in 2025, significantly higher than the general population rate.

This gap suggests persistent barriers to entry for young workers, including skills mismatches and limited access to formal employment opportunities.

Youth unemployment across the European Union edged higher in February 2026, with stark disparities between member states highlighting persistent structural divides in the bloc’s labour market, according to data from Eurostat and national analyses.

Across the EU, the youth unemployment rate, measuring those under 25 actively seeking work, rose to 15.3% in February, up slightly from 15.2% in January, with nearly 3 million young people unemployed.

While the overall EU unemployment rate remained comparatively stable at 5.9% , the data underscores a continuing imbalance affecting younger workers, whose jobless rate remains more than double that of the general population.

Romania tops youth unemployment rankings

Romania recorded the highest youth unemployment rate among EU countries, reaching approximately 28.2% , according to Eurostat-aligned datasets for early 2026.

The figure reinforces a longer-term trend identified by Romania Insider , which reported that Romania had already become the EU’s worst performer for youth unemployment, with rates above 26% in 2024, surpassing traditionally high-unemployment countries such as Spain and Greece.

Despite relatively low overall unemployment levels in Romania, way below the EU average, the youth segment continues to lag significantly, pointing to deeper structural issues in education , skills matching, and labour market integration.

Analysts cited by Romania Insider have previously linked the trend to high levels of young people not in employment, education or training (NEET), alongside employer reluctance to hire inexperienced workers and gaps between academic training and market needs.

Southern and Nordic economies remain under pressure

Other countries with elevated youth unemployment include Spain (23.8%), Sweden (23.2%), and Finland (23.1%), reflecting ongoing labour market pressures across both southern and parts of northern Europe.

France, Luxembourg, Belgium and Portugal also reported rates between roughly 18% and 21%, signalling that youth employment challenges extend beyond traditionally weaker economies.

At the other end of the spectrum, Germany recorded one of the lowest youth unemployment rates at 7.4% , followed by the Netherlands (around 9%) and Czechia (10.5%), according to Eurostat data.

Central and eastern European countries such as Poland and Slovenia also maintained relatively lower levels, generally close to or just above 11%.

Economists attribute these stronger outcomes to robust vocational training systems, tighter labour markets, and smoother school-to-work transitions.

The February data highlights a persistent structural divide within the EU, where youth unemployment remains uneven despite broadly stable macroeconomic conditions.

Eurostat estimates show that youth unemployment increased modestly month-on-month in early 2026, even as total unemployment declined slightly year-on-year, suggesting that younger workers are more vulnerable to economic shifts and slower to benefit from recovery cycles.

Effective May 1, 2026, China began implementing its duty-free trade access to several African economies, removing tariffs on a wide range of exports. The policy is designed to strengthen trade relations, boost African exports, and deepen Beijing’s economic influence across the continent. Countries such as South Africa , Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt, Ghana and others are already benefiting from improved market access.

A political, not economic, exclusion

However, Eswatini is not part of this framework. The reason is political rather than economic.

China follows a strict “One China” policy, which requires countries to recognise Beijing as the sole legal government of China. This means nations must cut official diplomatic ties with Taiwan to establish relations with Beijing. Most African countries have aligned with this policy over the years, shifting recognition from Taipei to Beijing.

Eswatini’s diplomatic stance

Eswatini has taken a different path. It is the only African nation that continues to maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. This position has remained consistent despite growing economic ties between China and other African states.

As a result, Eswatini does not benefit from China’s zero-tariff access. Its exports face standard trade conditions when entering the Chinese market, which can make them less competitive compared to goods from other African countries that now enjoy duty-free entry.

Trade policy as foreign policy

The exclusion highlights how diplomatic alignment can influence trade opportunities. China’s tariff policy is not only an economic tool but also part of its broader foreign policy strategy. By linking trade benefits to diplomatic recognition, Beijing reinforces its global stance on Taiwan.

Balancing Taiwan ties and economic interests

For Eswatini, the decision reflects a balance between political ties and economic considerations. Taiwan has maintained strong bilateral relations with the country, providing development support and investment in sectors such as agriculture, health and education.

While other African economies expand their trade with China under the zero-tariff arrangement, Eswatini continues to operate outside this framework due to its diplomatic stance.

Analysts weigh the impact

The exclusion of Eswatini has raised questions, with analysts describing the decision as largely political and carrying limited economic impact.

A Singapore-based expert in China-Africa relations, Amit Jain said the move “may even help Eswatini win even more economic concessions from Taiwan”.

Rising geopolitical tensions

Eswatini remains one of only 12 countries that maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which China regards as a breakaway province that will eventually be “reunited” with the mainland. However, many in Taiwan see the island as an already sovereign state.

Geopolitical tensions came into focus last month when Taiwan’s leader, Lai Ching-te, cancelled a planned visit to Eswatini after Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar denied his aircraft access to their airspace - moves Taipei said were taken under “intense pressure” and economic coercion from China.

China’s broader strategic intent

According to Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University’s Taiwan Centre, China’s decision signals a wider strategic intent.

“China is weaponising its ties with African countries, and showing how relations with China comes up with strings attached,” he said.

“China wants to show the world how it treats its friends, versus Taiwan’s friends.”