Kenya initially imposed restrictions on Ugandan dairy products in 2023 to protect local farmers. Though these measures were later relaxed under regional trade rules, the Kenyan government reintroduced a ban on powdered milk last month. Officials cited unfair competition and the need to protect the domestic supply as justification for the renewed ban.

In response, Uganda has turned to Nigeria to diversify its export markets. The Monitor reports that the shipment to Nigeria, facilitated with the support of former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, positions Nigeria as Uganda’s second-largest dairy export destination after Algeria, which currently imports about 20,000 tonnes annually.

Despite having one of Africa’s largest cattle populations —over 20 million head of cattle, Nigeria produces limited quantities of milk and depends on imports for around 60% of its dairy needs. 

The country is now working to increase local milk output, including importing dairy cattle from Denmark , as part of a strategy to reduce dairy imports that cost the country $1.5 billion annually.

“Our goal is ambitious but achievable; to double Nigeria's milk production from 700,000 tonnes to 1.4 million tonnes annually in the next five years," said Livestock Minister Idi Maiha in June.

Before the imposition of trade barriers, Kenya was Uganda's largest milk buyer. However, a 10% import levy on dairy products reduced the competitiveness of Ugandan goods. Uganda contested the tax under the East African Community (EAC) Common Market Protocol, which supports the free movement of goods within the region.

While Egypt leads Africa’s dairy production with an estimated 5.7 billion kilograms of annual production in 2025, East Africa remains the continent’s dairy hub . In 2023, East Africa contributed 48% of Africa’s total milk production, amounting to 25.4 million tonnes. The region also recorded a 26% growth in production between 2013 and 2023. Key producers include Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan, Tanzania, and South Sudan, with Uganda becoming a notable exporter of milk powder.

Uganda’s dairy industry continues to grow, with an expected annual production of 5.3 billion litres in 2025. The Dairy Development Authority (DDA), established in 1998, plays a central role in regulating and promoting the industry. It has implemented policies to improve milk quality, boost production, and increase market access.

The country now produces an impressive 212 million metric tons (MMT) of milk annually, far surpassing the European Union’s 150 MMT and the United States’ 103 MMT.

The data, visualised by World Visualized, highlights the top global milk producers for 2025. After India, the European Union and the United States maintain their strong positions, followed by China (42 MMT), Russia (34 MMT), Brazil (28 MMT), New Zealand (22 MMT), the United Kingdom (16 MMT), Mexico (14 MMT), and Argentina (11 MMT).

India’s dominance is fuelled by a vast network of small-scale dairy farmers, many of whom rely on milk production as their primary source of income. The country’s decentralised dairy model, coupled with strong domestic demand, continues to drive growth. In contrast, the European Union ’s production is more export-oriented, while the United States relies on industrialised, high-efficiency systems that cater to both local and international markets.

Globally, milk production remains a key indicator of food security and economic stability. But in 2025, the industry faces mounting challenges. Climate change, trade tensions, and rising feed costs are reshaping dairy operations around the world.

Countries such as New Zealand and Brazil have experienced reduced yields due to droughts, while China is investing heavily in local production to reduce its dependency on imports.

In Europe, the “Green Deal” continues to push farmers toward more sustainable livestock practices, including reducing methane emissions. Meanwhile, the U.S. dairy industry is experimenting with innovation-led solutions, from low-emission feed to carbon-neutral farming, to meet growing consumer demand for environmentally responsible food.

Beyond production numbers, milk is deeply tied to global nutrition trends. The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) reports a steady rise in dairy consumption, particularly in Asia and Africa, driven by rapid urbanisation and population growth.

However, shifting trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and climate-driven disruptions are all influencing how and where milk moves across borders. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, for instance, has affected agricultural supply chains in Europe, while changing relations between China and the United States continue to impact dairy trade flows.

Yet amid these challenges, one truth remains unchanged: Lactalis still reigns as the world’s largest dairy company.

With estimated dairy revenues of $32 billion, the French-based Lactalis group leads the global pack, followed by Nestlé at $24 billion, Dairy Farmers of America (DFA) at $23 billion, and Danone with $21 billion.

Rounding out the top ten are Yili, Arla Foods, Fonterra, FrieslandCampina, Saputo, and Mengniu, whose revenues range between $12 billion and $16 billion. The ranking, visualised in the World Visualized chart, highlights the immense scale of these dairy powerhouses, but also reveals an industry facing a new era of strategic and structural change.

Rabobank’s analysts note that in 2024, the combined turnover of the Top 20 dairy firms rose by only 0.3% in U.S. dollar terms , compared with an 8.1% increase the year before. The slowdown stems largely from weaker commodity milk prices and volatile currency movements, especially between the euro and the U.S. dollar, which have eroded European revenue figures. Rabobank’s full analysis predicts only modest growth through 2025, unless a wave of mergers and acquisitions reshapes the competitive field.

That reshuffling may be closer than it appears. Rabobank’s forward outlook suggests “subtle shifts” in 2025, but a potential shake-up in 2026. Consolidation pressures are mounting as companies seek to achieve scale and resilience in the face of rising costs and sustainability obligations.

Lactalis, for instance, recently signed a landmark deal to acquire many of Fonterra’s consumer brands — including Anchor, Mainland, and Fernleaf — along with several processing sites in Oceania, Asia, and the Middle East. The move not only strengthens Lactalis’s southern hemisphere reach but also marks a strategic pivot for Fonterra, which is turning its focus toward B2B ingredients and nutrition.

Meanwhile, Rabobank hints at possible future combinations, such as FrieslandCampina merging with Milcobel, or Arla Foods joining forces with DMK in Germany. Even legacy players like Unilever may exit the ranking altogether, as it considers divesting its ice cream business —a move that could open space for newer dairy-focused entrants, such as Emmi or Magnum.

Beyond corporate manoeuvring, the industry’s fundamentals are being tested by a mix of climate, policy, and consumer trends. The Rabobank Global Dairy Quarterly (Q3 2025) report highlights rising milk production in key export regions, which could push global prices down later this year. Farmgate milk prices have surged, up 27% in New Zealand and 18% in Europe, but supply growth is expected to peak in the second half of 2025 before easing in 2026.

At the same time, sustainability pressures are reshaping corporate behaviour. Nestlé recently made headlines by withdrawing from the Dairy Methane Action Alliance, citing a shift in strategy while reaffirming its long-term net-zero goals. Climate-related disruptions are also taking their toll.

A Guardian investigation revealed that even a single hour of extreme heat above 26 °C can reduce a cow’s milk output by half a percent per day, with compounding effects in prolonged heatwaves, a pattern that could cut global dairy supply by 4% by mid-century.

An astonishing 4% of global cheese production is lost annually to theft, highlighting how dairy, especially cheese, has become a prime target for both petty shoplifting and organised retail crime .

Based on the most recent crime statistics , shoplifting costs retailers more than $13 billion each year, which breaks down to over $35 million lost every single day.

This substantial financial burden not only affects individual businesses but also ripples through the broader economy, driving up retail prices and threatening the sustainability of stores across the country.

Regional theft patterns: What’s being stolen where

A World Visualized graphic reveals that different countries exhibit unique preferences when it comes to grocery theft:

This international pattern is more than random petty theft. Analysts from the Smithsonian Magazine note the increasing involvement of organised retail crime networks. These groups systematically target high-value, resellable, and often untraceable products such as cheese, cosmetics, alcohol, and coffee.