Effective May 1, 2026, China began implementing its duty-free trade access to several African economies, removing tariffs on a wide range of exports. The policy is designed to strengthen trade relations, boost African exports, and deepen Beijing’s economic influence across the continent. Countries such as South Africa , Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt, Ghana and others are already benefiting from improved market access.

A political, not economic, exclusion

However, Eswatini is not part of this framework. The reason is political rather than economic.

China follows a strict “One China” policy, which requires countries to recognise Beijing as the sole legal government of China. This means nations must cut official diplomatic ties with Taiwan to establish relations with Beijing. Most African countries have aligned with this policy over the years, shifting recognition from Taipei to Beijing.

Eswatini’s diplomatic stance

Eswatini has taken a different path. It is the only African nation that continues to maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. This position has remained consistent despite growing economic ties between China and other African states.

As a result, Eswatini does not benefit from China’s zero-tariff access. Its exports face standard trade conditions when entering the Chinese market, which can make them less competitive compared to goods from other African countries that now enjoy duty-free entry.

Trade policy as foreign policy

The exclusion highlights how diplomatic alignment can influence trade opportunities. China’s tariff policy is not only an economic tool but also part of its broader foreign policy strategy. By linking trade benefits to diplomatic recognition, Beijing reinforces its global stance on Taiwan.

Balancing Taiwan ties and economic interests

For Eswatini, the decision reflects a balance between political ties and economic considerations. Taiwan has maintained strong bilateral relations with the country, providing development support and investment in sectors such as agriculture, health and education.

While other African economies expand their trade with China under the zero-tariff arrangement, Eswatini continues to operate outside this framework due to its diplomatic stance.

Analysts weigh the impact

The exclusion of Eswatini has raised questions, with analysts describing the decision as largely political and carrying limited economic impact.

A Singapore-based expert in China-Africa relations, Amit Jain said the move “may even help Eswatini win even more economic concessions from Taiwan”.

Rising geopolitical tensions

Eswatini remains one of only 12 countries that maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which China regards as a breakaway province that will eventually be “reunited” with the mainland. However, many in Taiwan see the island as an already sovereign state.

Geopolitical tensions came into focus last month when Taiwan’s leader, Lai Ching-te, cancelled a planned visit to Eswatini after Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar denied his aircraft access to their airspace - moves Taipei said were taken under “intense pressure” and economic coercion from China.

China’s broader strategic intent

According to Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University’s Taiwan Centre, China’s decision signals a wider strategic intent.

“China is weaponising its ties with African countries, and showing how relations with China comes up with strings attached,” he said.

“China wants to show the world how it treats its friends, versus Taiwan’s friends.”

Harriet Tembie Mamba, spokesperson for the Eswatini National AIDS Program (SNAP), said the rollout could significantly reduce new infections.

“We currently have about 4,000 new infections each year. With Lenacapavir, we hope to reduce that number to 2,500,” she said. “It will also reduce stigma and ease the burden of daily adherence. Clinical trials show it is over 96 percent effective — a real game changer for our country.”

The drug’s convenience is also expected to improve adherence among users. Zakhele Shongwe, who currently uses daily PrEP medication, said the biannual injection will ease the challenges many face.

“It will remain in my system for six months. I won’t have to worry about forgetting doses or keep visiting the clinic frequently, which often discourages people from continuing,” he said.

Eswatini has one of the highest HIV prevalence rates in the world . HIV/AIDS was declared a national disaster by King Mswati III in 2002, when antenatal prevalence surpassed 40 percent and over 12,000 people died annually from AIDS-related illnesses. Today, one in four citizens is living with HIV.

The introduction of Lenacapavir is seen as a critical step as the country seeks to curb the epidemic and reduce infections in the years ahead.

The agreement, made known through media inquiries and documents seen by Human Rights Watch (HRW), allowed Eswatini to accept up to 160 deportees in exchange for support meant to strengthen its “border and migration management capacity.”

So far, Eswatini has taken in 15 deportees, five in July and ten in October.

The deportees originate from countries such as Jamaica, Cuba, Laos, Vietnam, and Yemen.US authorities have labelled some as “depraved monsters,” a characterisation that has raised concerns in the region — especially in neighbouring South Africa , which fears the individuals could cross its porous borders.

Rights groups, lawyers, and civil society organisations in Eswatini have strongly criticised the government for a lack of transparency in striking the agreement, possible violations of domestic and international law and ignoring public safety and human rights implications.

Legal challenges have already been filed in court questioning the legality of the government’s decision to accept the deportees.

Eswatini’s acting government spokesperson Thabile Mdluli insists the state has been transparent, saying the US has been covering the “welfare and repatriation costs” of the deportees, along with other expenses tied to their temporary stay.

The government maintains that it had the authority to enter the agreement and that decisions about accepting further deportees will depend on ongoing discussions with the US and available capacity within Eswatini's institutions.

The $5.1 million was deposited into the account of Eswatini’s National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) — but the agency cannot spend it yet.

This trend shows how intensifying human activity is putting ever greater pressure on Earth’s water and land systems. But what’s driving this growth, and what does it mean for our future?

Several forces are pushing freshwater demand upward. Agriculture continues to be the heaviest water user globally. As food production expands to feed growing populations, more irrigation, fertilisers, and water-intensive crops are deployed.

Industry, too, plays a big role. Manufacturing, energy production, and processing all require water—not just for cooling and rinsing, but as a direct input into many industrial processes.

Urbanisation adds another layer of demand. As cities grow, water is needed not only for households, but for infrastructure , landscaping, public services, and sanitation.

Meanwhile, climate change adds uncertainty. Erratic rainfall, shifting weather patterns, and warming trends affect how much water is available, when, and where.

According to Our World in Data , global freshwater withdrawals have climbed sharply since the mid-20th century, though growth has begun to slow in some regions. Still, pressures remain high, especially in countries with limited renewable water resources.

A recent paper in MDPI highlights that shifts in water use efficiency, technological adoption, and policy interventions will be crucial for balancing demand with sustainability.

The UN World Water Development Report 2024 also emphasises water’s role not just in agriculture and industry, but in peace, stability, and equitable development. It argues that water, when managed fairly, can support social cohesion, but mismanagement can fuel conflicts.

These global dynamics don’t exist in a vacuum. In many parts of the world, water scarcity is already a driver of migration, social stress, and geopolitical tension. In the Horn of Africa, for example, prolonged droughts have contributed to displacement and competition over shared river systems.

Meanwhile, the push for green technology has implications for water use. Solar panel manufacturing, battery production, and data centres all demand water, sometimes in unexpected amounts.

In parts of Africa, researchers have begun estimating water consumption tied to computing infrastructure, underscoring how even digital growth is connected to natural resources.

So far, Rwanda, Ghana, Uganda, and Eswatini have signed separate agreements with Washington. Each country has accepted small groups of people , most of whom have no personal ties to these nations.

In the latest case, ten people were flown to Eswatini, including individuals from Jamaica, Cuba, Laos, Vietnam, and Yemen. Rights groups in Eswatini, however, went to court to stop the transfer, arguing it was illegal and violated international law.

The deportees still arrived a day before the hearing resumed in Mbabane. U.S. officials defended the move, saying the policy is meant to handle “uncooperative” countries.

But human rights advocates, including those at Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, call it unethical.

They say it strips people of due process and leaves them stranded in countries where they have no connections or support systems. Governments that agree to the policy often say they are cooperating for diplomatic reasons or humanitarian grounds.

Critics, however, believe some are doing so to maintain good relations with Washington or gain other forms of support.

As Reuters reports, the Eswatini government is now facing a legal challenge over its agreement with the U.S., while there are similar disputes in Ghana over alleged unlawful detentions of deportees.