According to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook , developing economies in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East are expected to grow faster than advanced economies as the global economy continues its gradual recovery from pandemic shocks and inflationary pressures.

At the top of the growth chart is India, projected to expand by around 6.4% in 2026. This robust growth outlook reflects strong domestic demand, continued investment in infrastructure and technology, favourable demographics, and government reforms aimed at boosting productivity. India’s growth rate significantly outpaces most major economies and reinforces its role as a key engine of global economic momentum.

Following India are the Philippines and Indonesia, with forecasted growth rates of approximately 5.6% and 5.1%, respectively. The IMF notes that Southeast Asian economies are benefiting from increasing regional trade, rising manufacturing output, and expanding services sectors. Indonesia’s entry into the top three fastest-growing economies highlights the region’s resilience and diversification amid shifting global supply chains.

Other economies expected to post solid gains include Egypt, China, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, with projected growth ranging from roughly 4.4% to 4.7%. While China’s growth rate is moderating compared with the rapid expansion seen in previous decades, the IMF forecasts continued stability as its services and consumption sectors strengthen.

In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reforms continue to support non-oil growth, while Nigeria’s expanding labour force and market reforms underpin its growth prospects.

Towards the lower end of the outlook, more advanced economies like the United States and Spain are expected to see more modest expansion, with the U.S. projected at around 2.4% and Spain near 2.3%.

These figures reflect constraints from higher interest rates, slower population growth, and lingering global trade challenges. Nevertheless, even these moderate growth rates suggest resilience relative to past global slowdowns.

Some developing economies benefited from rebounds in energy production, strong remittances and post-crisis recoveries. Others were dragged down by violence, political instability and structural weaknesses. 

Global South World reviewed the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) 2025 projections — a closely watched outlook produced by the Washington-based lender that monitors economic developments worldwide — to identify the year’s strongest and weakest performers.

BIGGEST WINNERS

Republic of South Sudan (24.3%)

South Sudan’s surge reflects a rebound in oil production following earlier pipeline disruptions and conflict-related shutdowns, amplified by a low base. The IMF cautioned that the recovery remains fragile and almost entirely dependent on crude exports, leaving the economy highly exposed to price and security shocks.

Libya (15.6%)

Libya’s growth was driven by higher crude output after repeated blockades eased, boosting exports and government spending. In May, the North African country recorded a 12-year high in oil production, reaching 1.23 million barrels per day, underscoring the economy’s continued reliance on hydrocarbons.

Guyana (10.3%)

Guyana remained one of the world’s fastest-growing economies as new offshore oil projects came online, lifting exports and funding public investment. This followed a 43.4% expansion in 2024, when oil production reached 225 million barrels. Spillovers from the energy sector continued to fuel construction, manufacturing and agriculture, while non-oil GDP rose 13.1%, driven largely by government-led capital spending.

Kyrgyz Republic (8.0%)

Growth continued to be supported by the services sector, which accounts for nearly half of GDP. In 2025, services, goods production and rising tax revenues emerged as the economy’s main bright spots, helping offset external pressures.

Tajikistan (7.5%)

Tajikistan’s expansion was underpinned by growth in services and industry, optimism over energy investments, strong consumer demand and private-sector activity. Real GDP rose 8.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, while inflation remained contained at 2.8% year on year in September.

BIGGEST LOSERS

Haiti (-3.1%)

Haiti’s economy continued to contract as gang violence, political paralysis and collapsing institutions disrupted trade, investment and basic services. It remains one of the poorest countries in the Western Hemisphere, with nearly two-thirds of the population living below the poverty line.

Myanmar (-2.7%)

Myanmar remained in recession amid ongoing civil conflict, sanctions and capital flight following the 2021 military coup. The economy also grappled with the aftermath of a March earthquake that triggered large reconstruction needs. Inflation is expected to stay above 20% in the near term, further straining household budgets.

Equatorial Guinea (-1.6%)

The contraction reflected heightened global uncertainty and declining hydrocarbon production. Despite falling output, poverty is projected to ease modestly — from 57.0% in 2024 to 55.8% by 2027 — supported by expansion in labour-intensive agriculture and services.

Yemen (-1.5%)

Yemen’s economy remained under pressure from protracted conflict and disrupted oil exports. In areas controlled by the internationally recognised government, inflation continued to erode purchasing power. In Houthi-controlled regions, airstrikes on key ports and persistent liquidity shortages further constrained imports and access to essential goods.

Botswana (-0.9%)

Botswana slipped into contraction as weaker global diamond demand weighed on exports and fiscal revenues, compounded by drought pressures. Rising debt risks prompted the government to introduce austerity measures, tightening conditions further.

According to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, Africa’s total GDP in 2024 stands at just under $3 trillion, with these five economies accounting for close to 50% of that figure. Nigeria remains Africa’s largest economy, driven by population size, services and energy exports, while South Africa continues to dominate in financial services, manufacturing and capital markets.

Egypt has strengthened its position through infrastructure spending, energy production and strategic control of the Suez Canal, a key artery for global trade that has taken on renewed importance amid ongoing Red Sea shipping disruptions linked to Middle East tensions.

Algeria’s economy is anchored in hydrocarbons, with natural gas exports becoming increasingly significant for Europe as countries seek alternatives to Russian energy supplies following the war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Ethiopia stands out as a non-oil-dependent giant, with growth fueled by agriculture, manufacturing and public investment, despite recent political and security challenges that continue to affect investor confidence.

While Africa is home to more than 1.4 billion people and some of the world’s fastest-growing populations, many countries remain heavily reliant on commodities , vulnerable to climate shocks, debt pressures and limited industrial capacity.

This imbalance is particularly relevant in 2025 as African leaders push for greater intra-African trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

These nations include China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil, Bangladesh, Russia, Mexico, Ethiopia, Japan, the Philippines, and Egypt, an eclectic mix of economic powerhouses, emerging markets, and developing nations that collectively influence global decisions on trade, climate, security, and migration.

India and China alone account for over one-third of all humans, but their demographic paths are diverging rapidly. India has officially surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation, a milestone confirmed in the UN’s 2023 World Population Prospects.

India’s median age is just 28, compared to China’s 39, giving it a much larger working-age population and potentially shifting economic influence in Asia.

Economists, including analysts at the International Monetary Fund, note that this workforce advantage could help India accelerate industrial growth if job creation and education keep pace.

Africa’s largest populations, Nigeria and Ethiopia, are expected to grow dramatically over the next three decades. Nigeria alone could surpass 375 million people by 2050 to become the world’s third most populous nation . The World Bank warns that rapid growth without matching investment in infrastructure, food systems, and education could strain resources, but it also points to Africa’s youth as an engine for innovation and entrepreneurship in a world facing labour shortages elsewhere.

On the other side of the spectrum are countries like Japan and Russia, where populations are shrinking. Japan’s fertility rate remains one of the lowest in the world, and its population is ageing faster than any other major economy .

Russia faces a similar demographic decline, further impacted by migration and the consequences of the war in Ukraine. Both countries illustrate the serious economic and social challenges tied to shrinking labour forces, from reduced productivity to increasing pressure on healthcare and pension systems.

These demographic realities are shaping today’s global news. At recent G20, UN, and COP28 meetings, leaders acknowledged that population trends directly affect climate negotiations, energy planning, and economic cooperation.

The regions highlighted, including parts of the United States, Western Europe, Japan, China’s major coastal hubs, and South Korea, represent the world’s most concentrated engines of productivity.

While this imbalance has existed for decades, new global pressures are reshaping the conversation about what economic dominance means in an era of shifting alliances, technological disruption, and geopolitical uncertainty.

The World Bank has consistently shown that global output remains highly concentrated in a few advanced and rapidly industrialising economies. In its latest data, the United States, China, Japan, Germany, and India make up nearly 55% of global GDP combined, despite representing only a fraction of the world’s landmass.

This concentration is often tied to urbanisation. According to the United Nations, more than 80% of global GDP is generated in cities, which explains why regions with dense urban and industrial hubs dominate the global economy.

What the map captures is the spatial reality of that imbalance: prosperity clusters tightly around places with deep capital markets, highly developed infrastructure , strong institutions, and large consumer bases. From Silicon Valley to Shanghai, and from Tokyo to Frankfurt, economic power is not spread evenly; it is concentrated, strategic, and deeply interconnected.

Recent IMF commentary notes that while global GDP growth is stabilising, the world economy remains vulnerable to regional shocks, especially those occurring in the markets that dominate global output.

As a result, events in these concentrated regions carry outsized influence. A slowdown in China’s property sector, a shift in U.S. monetary policy, or disruptions in Europe’s energy landscape can ripple across continents, affecting countries that play only a small part in generating global income.

The human side of economic concentration

For billions of people living outside these high-GDP zones, the unequal distribution of wealth shapes everyday opportunities. Countries in Africa, South Asia, and parts of Latin America often hold vast land areas but produce smaller shares of global income due to limited industrial development, infrastructure constraints, and lagging investment.

Meanwhile, the areas that dominate global GDP also face growing internal challenges — from ageing populations in Japan and parts of Europe to housing affordability crises in major U.S. and Asian cities. This shows that economic power does not automatically translate into shared prosperity.

According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), India is expected to grow at 6.7% in the fiscal year ending March 2026, driven by robust domestic demand, rising rural incomes and a vibrant services sector.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts India’s real GDP growth at about 6.5% for 2025 and 2026, positioning it ahead of most large economies globally.

In nominal GDP terms, some global databases list India’s output at roughly US$3.9 trillion, making it the world’s fifth-largest economy behind the U.S., China, Germany and Japan.

There are multiple factors behind India’s leap. First, domestic consumption remains strong: in the April-to-June quarter of fiscal 2025to 2026, India’s GDP reportedly grew by 7.8% year-on-year, fuelled by a 7% rise in private consumption and a 13.9% surge in fast-moving consumer goods volumes.

Secondly, favourable demographics and a large rural economy are pushing upward momentum. This, ADB cites, is driven by growing rural incomes and the services sector.

Third, global re-shoring trends and India’s strategic push on reforms and infrastructure are helping. The country is increasingly viewed as an alternative manufacturing and services hub for international firms.

This is supported by S&P Global's 2025 study titled India Forward: Transformative Perspectives.

"Manufacturing value added accounts for a modest 17.2% of India’s real GDP (latest government estimate for fiscal 2024-25), against the government target of 25%. India’s share in global manufacturing exports has remained largely flat over the past decade, reaching only 1.8% in 2024," part of the report read.

For international businesses, this is a signal to take India seriously, not just as a growth market but as a global hub.

Jorine Najjemba, a 20-year-old senior six graduate from Nkowe, has formally entered Uganda’s 2026 presidential race. On August 11, she picked nomination forms, declaring herself a fresh alternative to the current leadership under the slogan Open Door, New Uganda for Everyone . Najjemba said she developed her political ambition in 2016 while in primary six and expressed confidence in her ability to bring change despite her age and gender.

Government targets $500bn GDP by 2040 through agriculture

Uganda aims to grow its GDP from $50 billion to $500 billion by 2040, with agricultural financing at the core of its strategy. Bank of Uganda Governor Michael Atingi-Ego told the Propagate Summit in Munyonyo that private sector credit, currently at UGX 26 trillion, must rise to UGX 260 trillion to meet the goal. He emphasised the importance of digital tools like financial passports to unlock funding and transform farmers’ livelihoods.

UK export agency backs quarry and asphalt project

UK Export Finance has guaranteed a £5.29 million loan to Ugandan firm IBBI from the London Forfaiting Company, enabling the purchase of UK-made machinery for a granite quarry and asphalt plant. The project, supported by Rainbo and Neba Freight Ltd, is expected to boost infrastructure development and build on IBBI’s engineering work across East and Central Africa.

Museveni discusses Nile link with Egypt

Speaking in Cairo on August 12, President Yoweri Museveni said meeting the electricity, irrigation, and water needs of all Nile Basin countries is key to regional prosperity. He revealed discussions with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi on linking Uganda to the Mediterranean via the River Nile, potentially connecting Kampala to Alexandria.

MTN Uganda posts strong revenue growth despite profit dip

MTN Uganda reported a 13.1% rise in total revenue to UGX 1.722 trillion ($483.68mn) for the first half of 2025, driven by growth in data and fintech services. Data revenue rose 31.3% to UGX 490.2bn, while fintech revenue climbed 18.6% to UGX 524.6bn. Profit after tax fell 9.7% to UGX 267bn due to a one-off tax settlement, but underlying profit increased 27.8%. Subscriber numbers grew 10.2% to 22.8 million, with significant gains in data usage.

US President Donald Trump has announced plans to raise tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, citing India’s continued import of Russian oil. A 25% tariff will take effect immediately, with an additional 25% to follow in 21 days. Trump accused India of helping fund Russia’s war in Ukraine by reselling Russian oil for profit. The escalation comes amid growing trade between the two countries and rising tensions over geopolitical alignments.

India's GDP projected to take hit from raised US tariffs

India’s economic growth outlook has been slightly lowered by Goldman Sachs due to rising trade tensions with the US, following President Donald Trump’s imposition of a 25% tariff on Indian goods. The investment bank cut its real GDP growth forecast to 6.5% for 2025 and 6.4% for 2026, citing uncertainty in trade relations as a key risk. While some tariffs may be reduced through negotiation, the report highlights that investor confidence and business planning are already being affected. 

Philippines’ Marcos slams China during India visit

During his official visit to India, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. condemned China’s “illegal and unlawful” actions in the South China Sea and called for stronger cooperation with India to uphold international law. Marcos emphasised the importance of securing trade routes and protecting maritime freedoms, referencing the 2016 arbitral ruling that favoured the Philippines. Without naming China directly, he criticised efforts to undermine international legal rulings. His remarks came as Indian and Philippine navies completed their first joint patrol near Scarborough Shoal, a disputed area in the West Philippine Sea. 

Flood rescue efforts continue amid landslides, obstructed roads

Rescue operations are ongoing in Uttarakhand’s Uttarkashi district after flash floods and landslides killed at least four people and left dozens missing, including eight soldiers. Roads remain blocked by debris, while damaged telephone lines have limited communication with the area. More than 190 people have been rescued so far, with about 50 still unaccounted for. Large parts of the village are buried under mud, with some areas reportedly covered up to 15 metres deep.

INDIA bloc protests voter roll revision in Bihar

Opposition parliament members from the INDIA bloc staged a protest in the Parliament House complex on August 6 against the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in the eastern Indian state of Bihar. The opposition claims the voter list revision lacks transparency and alleges collusion between the Election Commission and the government. Despite repeated demands, no parliamentary discussion on the matter has been held so far.

The Philippine economy is expected to withstand a potential 19% US tariff with minimal disruption, says DEPDev Secretary Arsenio Balisacan. He credits the nation’s diversified exports and focus on productivity and infrastructure. Balisacan noted that broad export markets cushion GDP from tariff shocks, while import changes may have a larger effect. He assured that GDP targets remain intact due to strong fundamentals. To sustain growth, Balisacan emphasised the need to diversify exports, boost productivity, and remove barriers for businesses and startups.

Philippines, Israel eye closer economic ties

The growing economic partnership between the Philippines and Israel was highlighted at a July 29 gala attended by Israeli Economy Minister Nir Barkat and DTI Secretary Cristina Roque. Both officials expressed optimism about a potential free trade agreement and deeper cooperation in trade, tourism, and innovation. Barkat proposed reducing tariffs to zero, calling the countries’ economies “complementary.” He also noted untapped tourism potential, citing low Israeli tourist arrivals in the Philippines compared to Thailand, and stressed the need for direct flights to boost travel and people-to-people exchanges. He invited Filipinos, especially Catholic pilgrims, to visit the Holy Land and shared plans to restore biblical sites like the Pool of Siloam in Jerusalem.

IMF raises 2026 growth forecast for the Philippines

The IMF has upgraded its 2026 growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.9% from 5.8%, citing strong economic fundamentals and ongoing reforms. The revised outlook reflects continued confidence in the country’s resilience despite global challenges. For 2025, the IMF maintained its 5.5% growth forecast, aligning with the government’s target range of 5.5% to 6.5%.

Philippines' clean energy transition sees coal decline

Coal-fired power in the Philippines is set to decline by 5.2% in early 2025, the first drop since 2008, signalling a shift toward cleaner energy, according to IEEFA. Despite claims linking the decline to LNG, no new gas-fired capacity was added from 2017 to 2024. In contrast, over 1 GW of solar was installed in 2024, boosted by government-led renewable auctions. The country’s competitive power market also mandates least-cost energy sourcing, further supporting clean energy growth.

Philippines considers raising online gambling tax to over 30%

The Philippine government is reviewing its online gambling framework, with talks underway to tighten regulations, according to Finance Secretary Ralph Recto. While seen as a key revenue source, officials are weighing the risks of higher taxes. Currently, operators contribute 25% of gross gaming revenue to PAGCOR. Proposed reforms may raise this to 30% or more. However, Recto warned that excessive taxation could drive more operators underground, especially with 60% of the sector already unregulated.