Brazil is expected to remain the world’s dominant coffee producer in 2025, widening its lead over global rivals as demand for coffee continues to rise despite climate pressures and supply chain volatility affecting major growing regions.

According to data compiled from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), the International Coffee Organisation (ICO), Colipse Coffee and StatRanker, Brazil is projected to produce around 63 million 60-kg coffee bags in 2025, far ahead of second-place Vietnam at 30.8 million bags.

Brazil is also forecast to export more than 40 million bags, reinforcing its position as the backbone of the global coffee trade. The country accounts for roughly one-third of global coffee production and remains the world’s largest supplier of arabica beans, widely used in premium blends and espresso markets.

Vietnam, the second-largest producer, is expected to export nearly 27.9 million bags, driven largely by robusta coffee production. Robusta beans, which contain higher caffeine levels and are commonly used in instant coffee, have seen growing global demand amid rising Arabica prices.

Colombia ranks third with a projected production of 13.8 million bags, followed by Indonesia and Ethiopia, the birthplace of coffee, with estimated outputs of 12.45 million and 11.56 million bags, respectively.

In Africa, Uganda continues to strengthen its role in global coffee markets, with production expected to reach nearly 6.9 million bags, according to USDA estimates.

One notable trend in the data is that countries such as India, Honduras and Peru are projected to export more coffee than they produce domestically during the year. Analysts say this can occur due to carryover inventories from previous harvests, re-exports and stockpiled reserves entering international markets.

The global coffee industry has faced mounting pressure in recent years from extreme weather events linked to climate change. Brazil experienced severe drought and frost episodes between 2021 and 2023, while Vietnam and Colombia have also dealt with shifting rainfall patterns affecting crop yields.

The International Coffee Organisation has repeatedly warned that climate instability poses a growing long-term threat to coffee-growing regions, particularly for arabica production, which is highly sensitive to temperature changes.

Despite supply concerns, global coffee consumption continues to rise steadily. The USDA projects growing demand across Asia and emerging markets, while established markets in Europe and North America remain among the world’s largest consumers.

Industry analysts say tightening supplies and weather-related disruptions have contributed to elevated global coffee prices over the past two years, affecting everyone from multinational café chains to independent roasters.

What this really highlights is how a handful of producing nations continue to shape one of the world’s most traded agricultural commodities, even as climate risks increasingly threaten the future of global coffee production.

While the euro is used by 20 of the EU’s 27 member countries, Poland, Romania, Denmark, Sweden, Czechia and Hungary have all chosen, or in some cases delayed, joining the eurozone, despite being part of the bloc’s single market.

The euro was officially introduced in 1999 for electronic transactions and entered circulation in 2002, becoming one of the world’s most traded currencies alongside the U.S. dollar. According to the European Central Bank (ECB), more than 340 million people currently use the euro across Europe.

However, adopting the euro requires countries to meet strict economic conditions known as the Maastricht criteria, including limits on inflation, government debt, budget deficits and exchange rate stability.

Among the six holdouts, Denmark remains the only country with a formal opt-out agreement negotiated during the Maastricht Treaty in the 1990s. The Danish krone is closely pegged to the euro through the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, effectively keeping its value stable against the common currency while preserving national monetary control.

Sweden, meanwhile, has repeatedly delayed adopting the euro after voters rejected the currency in a 2003 referendum. Although Sweden is technically obligated to join eventually, successive governments have avoided entering the exchange rate mechanism required for accession.

In Central and Eastern Europe, countries such as Poland, Hungary and Czechia have cited economic flexibility and monetary independence as key reasons for retaining their national currencies.

Poland’s zloty, for example, has often been viewed domestically as an important buffer against external economic shocks. During periods of inflation or slowing growth, governments and central banks can adjust interest rates and currency policy independently, tools that eurozone members surrender to the European Central Bank.

Hungary’s forint and Czechia’s koruna have similarly allowed policymakers greater control over domestic economic conditions, particularly during periods of volatility linked to energy prices, inflation and global market uncertainty.

Romania continues to target eventual euro adoption but has repeatedly postponed timelines due to inflation and fiscal challenges. The European Commission has previously stated that several non-Euro EU members still do not fully meet convergence requirements.

“What we know typically about hantaviruses, I just want to put this in context, typically the exposure and the infection comes from contact with rodents,” she said.

Hantaviruses are a group of viruses mainly transmitted to humans through contact with infected rodent urine, droppings or saliva. According to global health authorities, infections can lead to serious respiratory or renal conditions , depending on the strain. Cases remain relatively rare but can be severe, with varying fatality rates across regions.

Limited Human-to-Human Spread

While rodent exposure remains the primary source of infection, Vellucci acknowledged that certain strains have shown limited human transmission.

“We have seen with one of the viruses, the Andes virus, that there has been some limited human to human transmission,” she explained.

She noted that such transmission is not widespread and tends to occur only under specific conditions. “Now, I know that means different things to different people, but just to say that is really among very close contacts." 

Health experts confirm that the Andes virus, found mainly in South America, is the only hantavirus known to spread between humans, and even then, transmission is uncommon and typically linked to prolonged close exposure.

Close Contact Risks and Containment Measures 

Vellucci indicated that current assessments suggest transmission may have occurred among individuals in close quarters, such as shared living spaces.

“However, we do believe that there may be some human to human transmission that is happening among the really close contacts, the husband and wife, people who have shared cabins, et cetera,” she said.

She added that precautionary measures are being enforced based on this assumption. “That is why we are operating and working with the ship to make sure that anyone who is symptomatic, anyone caring for patients, is wearing full personal protective equipment.”

Medical teams responding to the situation have reinforced these efforts. “The medical personnel who have boarded the boat have brought additional PPE as well. So that is our working assumption.”

Current Public Health Context

Recent monitoring indicates no widespread global outbreak of hantavirus, but sporadic cases continue to be reported in regions including the Americas , Europe and parts of Asia. Public health agencies stress the importance of rodent control, proper sanitation and avoiding contact with potentially contaminated environments.

Symptoms of hantavirus infection can include fever, fatigue and muscle aches, followed by respiratory distress in severe cases. Early medical attention remains critical for improving outcomes.