Speaking on Global South Conversations with Ismail Akwei, Research Fellow at the GIGA Institute for Latin American Studies, Emilia Arellano described the “Pacto de Corruptos” as a loose alliance of political, economic and judicial actors who operate across governments to protect elite interests and maintain impunity.

'Pacto de Corruptos' a Household Name

The phrase has become widely used in Guatemala over the last decade, particularly after anti-corruption investigations exposed links between political leaders, business elites and state institutions. Public anger intensified in 2015 when then-President Otto Pérez Molina resigned and was later arrested over a customs fraud scandal uncovered by Guatemala’s Public Prosecutor’s Office and the UN-backed International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG).

Although anti-corruption efforts initially gained momentum, tensions between political elites and investigators later escalated. In 2019, the Guatemalan government ended CICIG’s mandate after years of investigations involving high-level officials and business figures. Critics argued the decision weakened accountability mechanisms and allowed powerful actors to regain influence within institutions.

Arellano said the “Pacto de Corruptos” does not represent one political ideology or party but instead functions through networks spread across different sectors of the state.

“They include political, economic, judicial, bureaucratic actors who have a single goal and they have been united by this goal, which is to have impunity and to protect their economic interests,” she said.

Judicial Institutions Under Scrutiny

Concerns over judicial independence have remained central to Guatemala’s political debate in recent years. Judges, prosecutors and journalists linked to anti-corruption investigations have reported intimidation, prosecution or exile.

Among the most prominent cases was that of former anti-corruption prosecutor Juan Francisco Sandoval, who fled Guatemala in 2021 after being dismissed from his role leading the Special Prosecutor’s Office Against Impunity. Several former judges and prosecutors connected to corruption investigations have also left the country citing security concerns.

Arellano said elite influence within the judiciary has weakened institutional oversight and reform efforts.

“We see how the judicial actors coming from the judges, the prosecutors have been captured by this elite and they now work in favour of them,” she said.

She added that the problem has extended across multiple administrations rather than being tied to one government.

“This is something that has been seen not only in the current government but also from previous governments,” she noted.

Reform Challenges Under Arévalo

The election of President Bernardo Arévalo in 2023 was widely interpreted as a rejection of corruption and democratic backsliding. His anti-corruption message attracted support from indigenous groups, young voters and civil society organisations frustrated with the political establishment.

However, attempts to implement reforms have faced institutional resistance. Before Arévalo took office, prosecutors sought to suspend his Semilla Movement party and questioned election results in moves that drew criticism from international observers and regional governments.

According to Arellano, the resistance reflects how deeply embedded elite networks remain inside state institutions.

“Elections themselves are not enough to provoke or to make a real change when the institutions have been captured and have been weakened for several years,” she said.

She argued that democratic reform in Guatemala will require broader institutional restructuring, stronger oversight systems and sustained civic participation beyond electoral politics.

“When Arevalo won the election , it was seen as a victory that represented a rejection of corruption, democratic backsliding and elite impunity. But this reform momentum has been stalled due to entrenched elites that have captured institutions for a long time,” she said.

'Pacto de Corruptos'

Emilia Arellano pointed to what many Guatemalans refer to as the “pacto de corruptos” or “pact of the corrupt”, which is a loose description of political, judicial, bureaucratic and economic actors protecting their interests.

According to her, the strength of these networks lies in their ability to survive across administrations by adapting to changing political environments while maintaining influence over key institutions.

“They don’t represent a single ideology or political party. They are united by a single goal, which is to maintain impunity and protect their economic interests,” she explained.

“We see how judicial actors, judges and prosecutors, have been captured by this elite and now work in favour of them,” she said.

She warned that Guatemala’s judiciary has increasingly become a tool for political persecution rather than democratic oversight, and anti-corruption figures have been selectively targeted, with some forced into exile because of threats to their safety.

“The judicial system should be an independent actor. However, for a long time now, it has been used as a political instrument... No real reform or democratic change can happen if institutions are unable to provide the minimum freedoms and rights to people trying to reform the country,” she added.

Growing public frustration

Arellano said indigenous communities and civil society groups that mobilised to defend Guatemala’s election results in 2023 are now becoming increasingly frustrated by the slow pace of reform. She warned that continued disappointment could weaken democratic participation and open the door to populist alternatives across the region.

“Their vote was interpreted as a vote in favour of democracy. But this illusion rapidly faded because they have seen how little can be done when institutions are captured... We see democratic erosion, institutional distrust, and elites fighting for power. This becomes fertile ground for anti-establishment populism,” she said.

She described 2026 as a potentially decisive year for Guatemala because several institutions are expected to undergo leadership changes.

“There is still this idea that if there is a change in the heads of institutions, some changes can happen,” she said while cautioning that replacing leaders alone would not be enough if the wider bureaucratic system remains tied to elite interests.

“All the bureaucracy is still involved and taking part in some of these elite networks. These processes are not simple and require continued pressure from civil society and the international community,” she explained.

Lessons for Latin America

Looking beyond Guatemala, Emilia Arellano argued that the country reflects a wider regional pattern in Latin America, where democratic institutions formally exist but are often informally controlled by powerful networks.

She cited growing admiration in parts of the region for authoritarian-style leadership models such as Nayib Bukele in El Salvador.

“What we need to learn from Guatemala is that elections themselves are not enough to make real change. Democracy has to be defended from the structures and institutions themselves, not only through elections,” she said.

Watch the full interview attached to this story.

However, this initial optimism quickly faded as political realities set in. In a system where elite actors have effectively taken control of the judiciary to protect the interests of an informal alliance of politicians, businesspeople, and bureaucrats—the so-called “ pacto de corruptos ”—the prospects for meaningful reform were always limited. Rather than referring to a single political bloc, the term describes a historically rooted, cross-sectoral system of elite clientelism, defined by its durability across successive governments and its core function: the reproduction of existing economic and political power structures while systematically evading accountability.

 This has also been documented by the Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) , which points to a steady decline in judicial independence, with a score of 2 out of 10 possible points. Similarly, the index finds that the separation of powers in the country is increasingly weak, with a score of 4, indicating that these institutional shortcomings predate the current government and continue to constrain it.

Institutional resistance and elite pushback

Despite the government’s commitment to exposing corruption within state institutions, the judicial system continues to be used as a political weapon . Prosecutors and judges are deployed to grant impunity to elites and restrict elected officials, including the president and his party.

Arévalo’s centre-left Movimiento Semilla has been a primary target of these efforts. Politically motivated actions by the Public Prosecutor’s Office , headed by Attorney General Consuelo Porras, have forced its elected representatives to operate as independents in Congress. This has prevented them from being recognised as a parliamentary bloc, from chairing committees, and from holding certain leadership positions, significantly weakening the government’s legislative capacity and further entrenching institutional paralysis.

Political deadlock and governance challenges

These pressures have been exacerbated by long-standing fragmentation within Congress and, more recently, within the ruling movement itself. In May 2025, a group of former Semilla members formed a splinter group known as “Raices.” While supporters described the move as a strategic repositioning ahead of the 2027 elections, critics see it as evidence of weak internal coordination and limited leadership capacity within the ruling camp.

The combined effect of judicial obstruction, legislative fragmentation, and internal divisions has produced sustained political deadlock. Key reform initiatives central to Arévalo’s agenda—particularly anti-corruption and institutional reform efforts—have either stalled in Congress or failed to advance beyond the proposal stage.

High levels of gang-related violence further complicate this picture, reinforcing perceptions of a state unable to deliver basic protection. In such a context, governance failures risk being interpreted not only as political setbacks, but as a broader inability to guarantee order and stability.

Public expectations and signs of eroding support

Public expectations following the 2023 election were exceptionally high—and Arévalo’s victory was largely driven by the mobilisation of indigenous communities and other social groups who viewed the election as a vote for democracy rather than a personal endorsement of the president . Yet many of these actors have since expressed disappointment , particularly over the government’s inability to remove the Attorney General—a central campaign promise that ultimately lacked sufficient congressional support.

The widening gap between expectations of rapid change and the reality of an executive constrained by hostile institutions has fueled frustration and declining confidence in democratic reform . This disillusionment carries broader implications for democratic legitimacy in Guatemala, where many citizens have already endured years of unfulfilled promises.

Near-term prospects and institutional turning points 

Looking ahead, the prospects for reform under Arévalo remain closely tied to a series of high-stakes institutional appointments currently underway. These processes—covering the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), the Public Prosecutor’s Office, and other key oversight institutions—are widely seen as decisive for the future of democratic governance in Guatemala.

Recent developments, however, point to a constrained outlook . The newly appointed Constitutional Court for the 2026–2031 period appears to reflect significant continuity with existing power structures, raising doubts about its willingness to challenge entrenched interests. Similarly, the selection of TSE magistrates by an opposition-dominated Congress has sparked concerns about political capture, with potential implications for the credibility of the 2027 elections.

The process of appointing a new Attorney General remains uncertain and highly controversial. Given the critical role this position plays in prosecuting corruption and safeguarding judicial independence, the outcome of this selection will be decisive for any meaningful reform initiative.

In the short term, Arévalo’s room for manoeuvre remains limited. While incremental progress may be possible through public pressure or international support, the overall trajectory suggests continued institutional friction. 

Lessons from Guatemala’s impasse

Guatemala’s current stalemate underscores that reform failure is not merely a matter of leadership or political will. It is rooted in deep structural constraints, institutional capture, and entrenched elite resistance. For Arévalo, the challenge is not only to govern, but to do so within a system designed to block change.

The Guatemalan case offers democratic reformers across the region a sobering lesson: electoral victories alone are insufficient when institutions remain hostile to transformation. Without addressing these structural barriers, democratic reform risks giving way to renewed frustration and more radical alternatives.

The article solely represents the views of Emilia Arellano, a research fellow at the GIGA Institute for Latin American Studies. Her research focuses on the executive power, political institutions, and power relations. 

A summary of the average monthly pensions across Europe highlights just how wide that gap has become. At the top sits Iceland, where retirees receive more than €3,100 ($3,645) a month on average. At the lower end of the high-income bracket, countries like Ireland and Belgium hover just above €2,000 ($2,351).

According to OECD and Eurostat data, Northern and Western European countries consistently rank highest in pension payouts.

Iceland leads with roughly €3,169 per month per beneficiary, followed by Luxembourg (€2,868) and Denmark (€2,545). Norway and Switzerland also sit comfortably above €2,300.

These countries share a common model, and that is a strong public pension system combined with occupational and private schemes. OECD analysis shows that multi-pillar pension systems, where state support is supplemented by employer-backed and private savings, tend to deliver higher retirement incomes.

There is also a broader economic context where higher wages during working life translate into larger contributions and, ultimately, higher pensions.

Countries such as Austria (€2,156), the Netherlands (€2,118) and Belgium (€2,021) fall slightly behind the Nordic leaders but remain above the €2,000 mark.

Eurostat data indicate that these countries benefit from mature social security systems with wide coverage, though replacement rates, the share of income maintained after retirement, vary depending on career length and contribution history.

Ireland, at around €2,005, rounds out the group. While its public pension is relatively modest, it is often supplemented by private retirement savings, which OECD reports say are increasingly important across Europe.

Why the gap exists

The variation in pension levels comes down to a few key factors:

Eurostat has repeatedly warned that Europe’s ageing population will intensify these pressures in the coming decades, with the ratio of working-age people to retirees continuing to shrink.

However, Higher pensions do not automatically mean better living standards.

Countries like Switzerland and Norway, while offering higher monthly payouts, also have significantly higher costs of living. OECD comparisons show that purchasing power can vary widely, meaning €2,000 in one country may stretch further than €3,000 in another.

Poland is expected to allocate around 4.5% of its gross domestic product (GDP) to defence in 2025, the highest share among NATO allies, according to recent estimates compiled by defence analysts and data platforms, including Atlas Institute and reported by Euronews.

The surge reflects a broader shift across the alliance, where governments are under growing pressure to meet or exceed NATO’s benchmark of spending at least 2% of GDP on defence.

Countries on NATO’s eastern flank, closest to Russia , dominate the top of the spending rankings. Lithuania (4.0%), Latvia (3.7%) and Estonia (3.4%) are all projected to significantly exceed the alliance’s 2% target.

What this signals is a strategic recalibration. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, frontline states have moved rapidly to strengthen military readiness, expand troop numbers and modernise equipment.

Euronews reports that defence budgets across Europe have seen sustained increases, with many governments committing to multi-year spending plans focused on air defence systems, artillery and ammunition stockpiles.

The United States , NATO’s largest military power, is expected to spend about 3.2% of GDP on defence in 2025—lower than several Eastern European allies in proportional terms but still far higher in absolute spending.

Northern European countries are also stepping up. Norway (3.3%) and Denmark (3.2%) are among the top contributors, reflecting growing concerns over Arctic security and regional stability.

Meanwhile, major Western European economies such as the United Kingdom and Germany are projected to spend around 2.4% of GDP, signalling progress after years of criticism for underinvestment.

Germany, in particular, has pledged a long-term shift in defence policy following its €100 billion special fund announced after the Ukraine invasion, a move widely covered by Euronews as a turning point in European security policy.

A notable development is that nearly all NATO members reached the 2% GDP benchmark in 2025. Countries including France, Italy, Canada and Spain hit that threshold, marking a significant change from just a few years ago when many allies fell short.

Authorities in Guatemala discovered cell phones and illegal drugs during a security search at the women’s prison located in Zone 18 of Guatemala City. Prison officials carried out the operation as part of routine efforts to clamp down on contraband items that are often used by inmates to coordinate criminal activities outside prison walls. During the search , officers reportedly combed through several sections of the prison, inspecting personal belongings and shared spaces used by inmates. The operation resulted in the confiscation of multiple mobile devices and narcotics, which authorities say pose a significant security threat within the prison system. Officials noted that such items are frequently smuggled into facilities through illicit networks involving visitors or corrupt intermediaries.

Search at Pavoncito prison 

A separate security operation at Pavoncito prison led to the seizure of various illegal items, authorities reported. The search was conducted by prison officials aiming to reinforce order within the correctional facility and prevent inmates from maintaining criminal operations while behind bars. Such inspections have become increasingly frequent as authorities attempt to tighten control in Guatemala’s prison system. During the operation , officers searched cells and communal areas within the prison complex. Several items considered prohibited under prison regulations were confiscated, though officials did not immediately provide a full list of the materials recovered.

Pool tragedy in Sakerti

What began as a relaxing afternoon at a swimming pool in the Sakerti neighborhood of Zone 7 ended in tragedy after a fatal incident occurred at the site. Local reports indicate that the gathering was meant to be a casual recreational outing before the situation suddenly turned into an emergency. Authorities were called to the scene after the incident was reported. Emergency responders arrived and attempted to manage the situation, but the individual involved was later confirmed dead. Details surrounding the exact cause of the tragedy were not immediately clear, prompting officials to launch an investigation to determine what led to the fatal outcome. W

Armed attack leaves one police officer dead and another injured

An armed attack in Guatemala’s northern Petén region left one police officer dead and another injured, according to authorities. The assault occurred while officers were carrying out their duties. The injured officer was reportedly taken for medical treatment following the incident, while security forces quickly moved to secure the area. Authorities launched an investigation and began searching for those responsible for the attack. Police and other security agencies have since intensified operations in the area as part of efforts to track down suspects. Officials have also reaffirmed their commitment to pursuing justice for the fallen officer. 

Three men killed and a woman injured

Three men were killed and a woman injured after gunmen opened fire in a separate armed attack in Guatemala, according to local reports. The violent incident has added to concerns about crime and public safety in parts of the country where armed assaults continue to occur. The three male victims were confirmed dead, while the injured woman was transported to a medical facility for treatment. Officials have not yet released details about the identities of those involved or the possible motive behind the attack. Investigators have opened a case and are working to identify the suspects responsible for the shooting. Security forces say they are gathering evidence and speaking with witnesses as part of the inquiry.

According to maritime analyses and industry insights reported by Marine Insight , canals serve as strategic connectors between seas, rivers, and industrial regions, reducing transit times and fuel costs while easing congestion around longer natural routes.

The Panama Canal, which stretches roughly 82 km, remains one of the most economically vital waterways globally. It links the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, saving ships from the lengthy and hazardous journey around South America ’s Cape Horn. Despite its relatively modest length, its geopolitical and commercial significance is outsized.

Similarly, Europe’s Kiel Canal in Germany, measuring just over 98 km, is one of the world’s busiest artificial waterways, allowing vessels to bypass the Danish Straits and significantly cut transit time between the North Sea and the Baltic Sea.

Russia’s Volga–Don Canal, at approximately 101 km, plays a key role in connecting the Caspian Sea basin with global shipping routes, forming part of a larger inland water transport network that supports regional trade.

Further north, Sweden’s historic Göta Canal, spanning about 193 km, is less commercially dominant today but remains a notable engineering achievement and an important cultural waterway.

However, Egypt ’s Suez Canal, also around 193 km long, is a cornerstone of global trade. It provides the shortest maritime route between Europe and Asia, handling a significant share of the world’s container traffic. Disruptions to the canal, as seen in recent years, have demonstrated its critical role in supply chains and energy shipments.

Longer inland systems, such as the Illinois Waterway in the United States (over 540 km) and the Erie Canal (around 582 km), highlight the importance of canals in domestic trade. These waterways connect major river systems and industrial hubs, facilitating the movement of bulk goods like grain, coal, and petroleum.

Towering above all is China’s Grand Canal, extending approximately 1,777 km. Recognised as the world's longest canal, it links key economic regions from Beijing to Hangzhou. According to Marine Insight, the Grand Canal has historically supported internal trade and continues to play a role in water transport and regional development.