General N’Tam had previously held the rank of brigadier general. With the new designation, he now bears four stars instead of two. His promotion comes two months after the military seized power on November 26, one day before the electoral commission was scheduled to announce the results of the presidential election.

The coup led to the ousting of former president Umaro Sissoco Embalo and the suspension of the electoral process. The military announced that it would govern for one year and named N’Tam, who has been described as a close associate of Embalo, as the transitional president.

Presidential and legislative elections have been scheduled for December 6, 2026, to restore civilian leadership.

According to the military, the takeover was intended to prevent violence between supporters of rival candidates. Both Embalo and opposition contender Fernando Dias had declared victory before the release of official results. 

Embalo was aiming to become the first incumbent to secure a second term in 30 years in the West African nation.

The electoral commission later stated that it was unable to complete the vote tally after armed men seized ballot materials and destroyed servers containing the results.

The coup was part of a cycle of instability in Guinea-Bissau, which has had multiple coups and attempted uprisings since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974. It was the ninth in West and Central Africa in five years.

This is the reality of the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS. In 2025, the bloc turned 50 years old. Instead of celebrating unity and progress, it faced its most serious crisis of relevance since its founding.

This moment of doubt comes at a time when West Africa needs regional coordination more than ever. Security threats are multiplying, trade remains fragmented, mobility is expensive, and democratic institutions are fragile. As ECOWAS enters its sixth decade, fundamental questions are being asked openly. Can it still enforce democratic norms? Does it still carry economic weight? And can it survive in its current form?

Paper tiger

On paper, ECOWAS is formidable. It brings together 15 member states, represents more than 440 million people, and has a combined GDP of roughly 600 billion US dollars. That makes it one of the largest regional blocs in the Global South.

In practice, integration remains shallow. Trade between ECOWAS countries still accounts for less than 20 percent of their total trade. In more integrated regions such as the European Union, internal trade exceeds 60 percent. The comparison highlights a central weakness. ECOWAS has scale, but it lacks cohesion.

That weakness became impossible to ignore in 2025, when Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger formally withdrew from the bloc. Together, these Sahelian states represent around 70 million people and nearly 17 percent of ECOWAS landmass. While they contribute less than 5 percent of total GDP, their strategic and security importance is enormous.

Their departure followed years of tension after military coups, sanctions, and repeated threats of intervention. When ECOWAS failed to act militarily after the coup in Niger, it exposed a hard truth. The bloc did not have the political consensus or operational capacity to enforce its strongest decisions.

Empty threats

The crisis of democratic enforcement did not stop there. Later in the year, disputed elections in Guinea-Bissau once again demonstrated how fragile political institutions remain in the region. The military intervened, and ECOWAS responded with condemnation, suspension, and the threat of sanctions.

This has become a familiar pattern. Since 2020, sanctions alone have rarely reversed coups. More often, they have hardened military rule and eroded ECOWAS authority. Each repetition weakens the credibility of the bloc’s commitment to democracy.

The elusive Eco

Economically, ECOWAS continues to pursue one of its oldest ambitions: a single currency. The Eco was first proposed more than 20 years ago and is now tentatively scheduled for 2027 after missing multiple deadlines.

The obstacles are structural. Nigeria alone accounts for more than 60 percent of ECOWAS GDP, while many smaller economies struggle with inflation, debt distress, and fiscal instability. Without real convergence on economic fundamentals, the Eco remains a symbolic project rather than a functional one.

These challenges are made more acute by a fragmenting global economy and shrinking foreign assistance from traditional partners in Europe and the United States . Regional self-reliance is becoming more important just as ECOWAS capacity is being questioned.

Tax-free flying

Yet amid the uncertainty, there is a reason for cautious optimism as 2026 begins.

From January, air travel across ECOWAS member states is set to become tax-free, with sharp reductions in passenger and security charges. This is one of the bloc’s most tangible policy wins in years.

The reform matters because West Africa has some of the highest intra-regional airfares in the world. It is often cheaper to fly to Europe than to a neighbouring country. If fully implemented, the changes could reduce fares by 20 to 40 percent, benefiting traders, students, tourists, and families while advancing free movement in a practical way.

Connectivity has long been neglected in African economic policy, despite its importance for growth. People want to travel, and people travelling drives commerce. Currently, international departure taxes in Africa average around $68 per trip, with West Africa the most expensive subregion. Short flights of just a few hundred kilometres can cost hundreds of dollars.

This reform requires coordination and execution more than large financial outlays. If governments create the right conditions, the private sector can step in. For ECOWAS, this could be a rare example of delivery matching ambition.

A chance for redemption

As 2025 ends, ECOWAS looks like this: large in population, fragmented in politics, slow in economic integration, weak in enforcing democracy, but still capable of delivering reforms that people can feel in their daily lives.

At 50, ECOWAS is no longer just a regional institution. It is a test case for whether African multilateralism can adapt to a changing political reality. The question now is whether the future of regional cooperation will be driven by declarations, or defined by delivery.

The answer will shape not just ECOWAS, but the credibility of regional integration across the Global South in the years ahead.

Click here to watch our previous episodes

World Reframed is produced in London by Global South World, part of the Impactum Group. Its editors are Duncan Hooper and Ismail Akwei.

ISSN 2978-4891

This story is written and edited by the Global South World team, you can  contact us  here.

The Chairperson of the African Union Commission, H.E. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, has strongly condemned the 26 November military coup d’État in Guinea-Bissau as the country awaited the announcement of the November 25 election results. He reaffirmed the AU’s zero-tolerance stance on unconstitutional changes of government, citing key normative instruments including the Constitutive Act, the Lomé Declaration, the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance, and the Ezulwini Framework. The Chairperson also acknowledged the Joint Statement issued on the same day by the heads of the AU, ECOWAS, and West African Elders Forum election observer missions.

Claims emerge that coup may have been staged

Political tensions deepened as Senegal’s Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko and Nigeria’s former President Goodluck Jonathan publicly suggested the ousting of President Embaló may have been fabricated . The military halted the release of election results, claiming it intervened to stop a destabilisation plot — allegations Sonko and Jonathan questioned, saying no evidence had been presented. Some civil society groups and opposition figures accused Embaló of staging a “simulated coup” to block the results in case of defeat, although the former president has not responded to the claims. Embaló, who was flown to Senegal after his release, has previously been accused of using political crises to suppress dissent.

ECOWAS suspends Guinea-Bissau after military takeover

West Africa’s ECOWAS bloc suspended Guinea-Bissau from all its decision-making bodies following an emergency virtual summit on 27 November. The Mediation and Security Council, chaired by Sierra Leone’s President Julius Maada Bio, condemned the military intervention as an “illegal abortion of the democratic process” and urged coup leaders to allow the national election commission to publish the disputed presidential results. Member states from Cabo Verde, Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Benin, and others participated in the session and rejected the army’s decision to halt the vote tally.

Deposed president transported to Senegal as tensions ease

Guinea-Bissau’s deposed leader Umaro Sissoco Embaló arrived in Senegal late on 27 November after negotiations led by ECOWAS secured his release. Senegal’s foreign ministry confirmed he landed “safe and sound” aboard a military aircraft. The coup unfolded hours before provisional results from presidential and parliamentary elections were due. The junta suspended the entire electoral process, banned demonstrations, and imposed a nighttime curfew, citing an alleged plot involving unnamed politicians and a “well-known drug baron” to destabilise the country.

Military installs transitional president and outlines one-year transition

The military high command has appointed Gen Horta N’Tam (also referenced as Horta Inta-A in local reporting), previously army chief of staff and a close ally of Embaló, as transitional president for a one-year period. In a televised address, Gen N’Tam said political actors’ failure to resolve worsening tensions prompted the armed forces to intervene. He later named former finance minister Ilidio Vieira Té as the new prime minister. Opposition candidate Fernando Dias, who also claimed victory in the vote, denounced the takeover as a “fabricated coup” intended to block the release of election results, urging citizens to demand transparency. Despite the turmoil, daily activities resumed gradually on Thursday in the capital, Bissau.

The Guinea-Bissau military has already installed a transitional leader, Gen Horta N’Tam, who is expected to govern for one year. The coup unfolded on Wednesday, one day before authorities were due to announce provisional results from presidential and parliamentary elections. The junta has suspended the entire electoral process and blocked the release of the vote tally.

Military leaders say they acted to prevent an alleged plot by unnamed politicians “supported by a well-known drug baron” to destabilise the country. They imposed a nighttime curfew, banned public protests, and prohibited any actions they said could disturb “peace and stability.”

Guinea-Bissau, positioned between Senegal and Guinea, has long struggled with political turbulence and has earned a reputation as a major drug-trafficking hub. The military has played a dominant role in national politics since independence from Portugal in 1974.

Tensions remained high in the capital, Bissau, on Thursday, with most businesses closed and soldiers patrolling the streets. Shortly after Gen N’Tam was sworn in as transitional president, the military reopened land, air, and sea borders, which had been sealed at the start of the coup.

Some civil society groups have accused Embaló of orchestrating a “simulated coup” with the military to prevent the publication of election results he feared he might lose. Dias made similar allegations, calling the takeover an “organised coup.” He told AFP he considers himself the president-elect, claiming to have secured around 52% of the vote. Embaló has not responded to the accusations.

Guinea-Bissau has experienced at least nine coups or attempted coups over the past five decades, making it one of West Africa’s most politically unstable states.

The army announced that the 53-year-old Embalo had been removed from office, suspended all state institutions, and closed the country’s borders and airspace. A nightly curfew has also been imposed. Media reports indicate that Embalo and several high-ranking officials were detained during the takeover.

The coup comes just days after the presidential election, in which both Embalo and his main rival, Fernando Dias, claimed victory before official results were announced.

Guinea-Bissau has a long history of political instability, with Thursday’s takeover marking the fifth successful and ninth attempted military coup since the country gained independence from Portugal in 1974.

This development followed reports of sustained gunfire near several government sites in the capital, Bissau. Areas affected included the election commission headquarters, the presidential palace, and the interior ministry.

Join the conversation:

“There were some shootings... I could hear them from my home in the city centre,” a resident told Global South World .

The presidential vote, held on November 23, was expected to have its results announced on November 27. The election featured incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embalo and his main rival, Fernando Dias.

Both candidates declared victory on Monday, each claiming to have secured over half of the votes, despite the absence of official results. Embalo, 53, was seeking re-election to become the first president in thirty years to win a second consecutive term.

This concludes our live coverage of Guinea-Bissau's 2025 general elections. With fierce competition between the candidates, counting is underway to determine the country's next president. Polling stations opened at 0700 GMT and are expected to close at 1700 GMT. Provisional results are expected within 48 hours. Follow Global South World for continued updates about Guinea-Bissau post-election.

18:15 GMT: Polling stations end voting processes, counting begins

After 10 hours of voting, Guinea-Bissau has officially closed its polls, and counting is currently underway.

16:32 GMT: Mozambique's Philip Nyusi and Nigeria's Goodluck Jonathan oversee elections

As part of a measure of transparency, the African Union sent its Chief of the Mission of Election Observers, Mozambique's former President, Filipe Nyusi, along with the former President of Nigeria, Goodluck Jonathan, to monitor the ongoing elections.

Filipe's inclusion, however, is being questioned due to the belief that he ruled as Mozambique's president through fraudulent electoral means.

12:40 GMT: “Bissau-Guineans want only solutions and not slogans”

Journalist Samba M. Baldé, explains in an interview with Global South World, that, despite the many campaign messages spread by the various candidates, the citizens need practical solutions to their problems.

11:51 GMT: Voting continues in Guinea-Bissau

10:34 GMT: Incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embalo votes

President Umaro Sissoco Embalo cast his vote this morning at a polling station in Umaro Djabula in Gabu. The president is seeking to make history as the only president to be given a second term in 3 decades.

9:47 GMT: People queue to vote in Mansôa

Bissau-Guineans in Mansôa are taking turns in casting their votes. Fernando Dias is expected to vote in this town. Citizens, however, remain committed to their desire to have a different economic climate and hope the results reflect that.

What you need to know

Candidates

Embalo is competing against 11 other candidates, including Fernando Dias, a relatively new figure in politics.

Right at his heels is 47-year-old Fernando Dias , backed by a powerful figure from the disqualified opposition leader, Domingos Simões Pereira, of PAIGC. This party led the country to independence in 1973.

Other contenders on the ballot include José Mário Vaz, who served as president from 2014 to 2020 and became the first post-independence leader to finish a full term. Baciro Dja, 52, a former defence minister who briefly occupied the prime minister’s office twice under President Vaz, first in 2015 and again in 2016.

Also in the race is 48-year-old Joao Bernardo Vieira, the namesake and nephew of Guinea-Bissau’s longest-serving president, who held power for most of the years between 1980 and 1999 and returned to office from 2005 to 2009.

The polls are expected to open at 7:00 am GMT and close at 5:00 pm GMT.

What citizens expect

During a conversation with Global South World's Abigail Johnson Boakye, a Bissau-Guinean journalist, Samba M. Baldé, shared that despite the hype around the upcoming elections, electorates seem to be less engaged as they are tired of slogans or manifestos and want real solutions.

"Engagement exists, but it's uneven because voters react to something that has certain benefits than to only promises, because for voters, when candidates fail to translate to voters their proposals into real impact or how they can really impact society , public interest quickly drops. ...But people are, for example, no longer satisfied with slogans. They want clear plans and measurable results in Guinea-Bissau," Samba said.

However, 47-year-old Fernando Dias also seems to be in a comfortable lead.

After being disqualified from standing as a candidate, opposition leader Domingos Simões Pereira has thrown his weight and support behind the Party for Social Renewal (PRS), a party headed by political newcomer Fernando Dias.

Expectations of the citizenry

During a conversation with Abigail Johnson Boakye, a journalist with Global South World, Samba M. Baldé, a Bissau-Guinean journalist, shared that despite the hype surrounding the upcoming elections, electorates seem to be less engaged, as they are tired of slogans and manifestos and want real solutions.

"Engagement exists, but it's uneven because voters react to something that has certain benefits than to only promises because for voters, when candidates fail to translate their proposals into real impact or how they can really impact society, public interest quickly drops. ...But people are, for example, no longer satisfied with slogans. They want clear plans and measurable results in Guinea-Bissau," Samba said.

On November 23, 860,000 voters head to the polls to decide whether their country can finally break free from decades of political turbulence.

Who is Fernando Dias?

Although new to the political spotlight, Dias is not entirely new to public life. His journey reflects a careful mix of academic training, political apprenticeship and a recent surge in national prominence.

He is a trained lawyer, holding both a Bachelor's degree in Law and a postgraduate qualification in Criminal Law from the Bissau Faculty of Law.

Before emerging as a presidential contender, he had built a steady career within state institutions, serving as the first Vice-President of the National People’s Assembly during the 11th legislature.

His roots in party politics run deeper than his “newcomer” label suggests.

He once served as Secretary-General of the youth wing of the Party for Social Renewal (PRS), eventually becoming its interim leader following a leadership vacancy. In June 2024, he was elected as president of the PRS.

He promises security for the people and desires to ensure the military does not interfere in the West African country's politics again.

"Our mission is clear: free Guinea-Bissau from the shackles of dictatorship and return power to the people. With faith, unity and courage, we will win the polls and build a new time for our nation," he wrote on his Facebook wall.

Background

Guinea-Bissau’s presidential and legislative races come at a moment when institutions are strained, and trust is fragile.

Umaro Sissoco Embaló's bid is seen as controversial because he has strategically reshaped the political arena through sudden dismissals and the appointment of a new prime minister ahead of the vote.

Heavyweight Domingos Simões Pereira and the historic PAIGC party-led coalition, PAI-Terra Ranka, were barred from contesting after the Supreme Court ruled their paperwork incomplete in October. This marks the first time the PAIGC party will be absent on a ballot paper.

Coups d'états, dissolved parliaments, and stalled reforms have marked Guinea-Bissau’s history. Embaló dissolved the National Assembly in December 2023, claiming an attempted coup, and left the country with no operational parliament for nearly two years.

Although his tenure ended in February 2025, Embaló stayed in the seat of power.

What they said

“This sad episode, which involves some general and senior officers of our Armed Forces, jeopardises the peace and stability so desired for socio-economic development and the attraction of foreign investment,” the armed forces said in a statement after announcing the latest coup plot. Deputy chief of staff General Mamadu Ture Kuruma told journalists: “This is indeed a new attempt to subvert the constitutional order, on the eve of the start of the election campaign for the legislative and presidential elections on November 23.”