<rss xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:base="https://globalsouthworld.com/rss/tag/IMF%20forecast" version="2.0">
  <channel>
    <atom:link href="https://www.globalsouthworld.com/rss/tag/IMF%20forecast" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
    <title>Global South World - IMF forecast</title>
    <link>https://www.globalsouthworld.com/rss/tag/IMF%20forecast</link>
    <language>en-US</language>
    <description><![CDATA[News, opinion and analysis focused on the Global South and rising nations across the world. Delivered by journalists on the ground in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas. From politics and business to technology, science and social issues, Global South World is the first place to come for accurate and trusted information.]]></description>
    <item>
      <title>Panama Roundup: IMF outlook, democracy concerns, drug seizures</title>
      <link>https://www.globalsouthworld.com/article/panama-roundup-imf-outlook-democracy-concerns-drug-seizures</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.globalsouthworld.com/article/panama-roundup-imf-outlook-democracy-concerns-drug-seizures</guid>
      <pubDate>Mon, 08 Sep 2025 12:50:57 Z</pubDate>
      <description><![CDATA[<h2>Banana industry revival </h2>
<p>The administration of President José Raúl Mulino has  finalised  an agreement with fruit giant Chiquita to restart banana production in Bocas del Toro, ending months of uncertainty for the local community. The Memorandum of Understanding, signed on August 6 in Brasilia, sets a framework for the reorganisation of the sector and paves the way for nearly 3,000 jobs in the first phase and 2,000 more in the second. Chiquita will invest 30 million balboas to reactivate 5,000 hectares of land, with operations expected by February 2026. A technical committee of government and company representatives will oversee compliance. President Mulino said the deal will restore stability, adding, “I will always work for investment, production, and job creation.”</p>
<h2>IMF projects 4.5% growth in 2025</h2>
<p>The International Monetary Fund has  forecast  that Panama’s economy will grow by 4.5% in 2025, supported by stable inflation, logistics, services, and the recovery of the Panama Canal. The IMF praised the government’s fiscal discipline and reforms to the Social and Fiscal Responsibility Law, which set deficit ceilings of 4% of GDP in 2025 and 2% in 2029. The organisation said these measures could reduce public debt to 40% of GDP by 2040, boosting market confidence. The report also highlighted that nearly 5% of GDP continues to be allocated to public investment in sectors including education, health, and infrastructure, balancing fiscal consolidation with social priorities.</p>
<h2>IDEA warns of democratic stagnation</h2>
<p>Latin America, including Panama, is facing stagnation in the quality of democracy, according to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA). Director Marcela Ríos Tobar  noted  regression across the region in representation, rights, rule of law, and participation. The IDEA Global State of Democracy Index, covering 173 countries, places Panama in a group showing strong electoral processes but weaker performance in rights and inclusion. The report, due September 11, warns that Panama’s democracy has remained stable but stagnant over the past five years, with setbacks in socioeconomic equality and citizen participation.</p>
<h2>Migrants retrace their steps amid U.S. border closure</h2>
<p>Donald Trump's new restrictions have caused thousands of migrants, mostly Venezuelans, to turn back from the U.S. border, leaving them  stranded  in the Panamanian port village of Miramar. More than 14,000 people have reversed their journey south, according to a recent report. Many had crossed the Darién Gap only to face renewed hardship. Gabriela, a 26-year-old Venezuelan mother, said, “I was hoping for a better future, but it was all for nothing.” Migrants wait in abandoned houses and tents, uncertain how to finance the next leg of their journey.</p>
<h2>Authorities seize drugs bound for New Zealand</h2>
<p>Panamanian security forces seized 39 packages of suspected narcotics concealed in a container originating from Morocco and destined for New Zealand. The operation was carried out by the drug prosecutor’s office and the national police. Police director Jaime Fernandez  reported  that authorities had confiscated seven tons of narcotics by the end of August 2025, sparking concern among security officials. In response, authorities convened to discuss stronger measures against drug trafficking, particularly in shipments routed through Panama’s ports and bound for Europe.</p>
]]></description>
      <source url="https://www.globalsouthworld.com">Global South World</source>
      <media:content url="https://gsw.codexcdn.net/assets/asj8YrjhIizHo8pXH.jpg?width=1280&amp;height=720&amp;quality=75&amp;r=fill&amp;g=no" medium="image" type="image/jpeg">
        <media:credit role="photographer">Aris Martinez</media:credit>
        <media:credit role="provider">REUTERS</media:credit>
        <media:title>Jose Raul Mulino takes oath of office as Panama's President, in Panama City</media:title>
      </media:content>
      <dc:creator><![CDATA[Edward Sakyi]]></dc:creator>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Top 10 fastest-growing African economies in 2025</title>
      <link>https://www.globalsouthworld.com/article/top-10-fastest-growing-african-economies-in-2025</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.globalsouthworld.com/article/top-10-fastest-growing-african-economies-in-2025</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 15 Aug 2025 09:30:46 Z</pubDate>
      <description><![CDATA[<p>Despite global economic headwinds, several African nations are set to post some of the world’s fastest GDP growth rates in 2025, according to the  International Monetary Fund (IMF) . Energy sector rebounds, infrastructure projects, political stabilisation, and investment-friendly reforms are driving the surge.</p>
<p>Here’s a breakdown of the top 10 fastest-growing African economies and the factors propelling their expansion.</p>
<p>Top 10 Fastest-Growing African Economies in 2025: IMF Projections</p>
<p>1. South Sudan – 27.2%</p>
<p> South Sudan is projected to record the highest GDP growth globally in 2025 at  27.2% . The recovery is driven by oil production rebounds after years of civil conflict and disruptions. However, analysts warn that the growth is from a very low base, with poverty, political instability, and dependence on crude exports posing ongoing risks.</p>
<p>2. Libya – 13.7%</p>
<p>After a decade of political turmoil, Libya’s economy is rebounding sharply, with the IMF forecasting  13.7% growth in 2025 . This surge is largely oil-driven, as production ramps up and global energy prices stabilise. The government is also investing in reconstruction projects, but long-term sustainability hinges on political reconciliation.</p>
<p>  3. Senegal – 9.3%</p>
<p>Senegal’s economy is expected to grow by  9.3%  in 2025, propelled by the start of large-scale oil and gas production from the Sangomar field and the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project. These developments, coupled with strong agriculture and infrastructure investments, position Senegal as one of West Africa’s most dynamic economies.</p>
<p>  4. Sudan – 8.3%  </p>
<p>Despite conflict and humanitarian crises, Sudan is projected to grow by  8.3%  in 2025, mainly from agricultural exports, informal trade, and the possible easing of  sanctions . However, analysts caution that political instability could derail these gains.</p>
<p>  5. Uganda – 7.5%</p>
<p>Uganda’s 7.5% growth forecast is underpinned by oil production developments in the Lake Albert region, infrastructure expansion, and services sector growth. The East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) project, though controversial, is expected to be a major economic driver.</p>
<p>  6. Niger – 7.3%</p>
<p>Niger is set for 7.3% GDP growth as uranium mining, agriculture, and regional trade expand. Despite recent political upheaval, international partners remain engaged in energy and infrastructure projects.</p>
<p>7. Zambia – 6.6%</p>
<p>Zambia’s growth forecast of 6.6% reflects recovery in copper production and debt restructuring progress. The mining sector is benefiting from global demand for critical minerals used in electric vehicle batteries.</p>
<p>  8. Ethiopia – 6.5%</p>
<p> Ethiopia is expected to post  6.5% growth , supported by manufacturing, agriculture, and a gradual easing of internal conflicts. Reforms to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) in telecoms and finance are also gaining traction.</p>
<p>  9. Rwanda – 6.5%</p>
<p> Rwanda’s  6.5% GDP growth  will be driven by tourism recovery, infrastructure development, and tech sector expansion. The government continues to position Kigali as a hub for conferences and innovation.</p>
<p>  10. Benin – 6.5%</p>
<p>Benin rounds out the list with  6.5% growth , propelled by port expansions, cotton exports, and transport corridor projects linking it with Nigeria and Niger.</p>
<p>While these growth rates are impressive, the IMF cautions that GDP expansion does not always translate into broad-based development. Inflation, inequality, political instability, and climate-related shocks remain major risks. </p>
<p>Sustaining growth will require economic diversification, investment in human capital, and stronger governance.</p>
]]></description>
      <source url="https://www.globalsouthworld.com">Global South World</source>
      <media:content url="https://gsw.codexcdn.net/assets/asHlR7qlVLOOxFmD3.jpg?width=1280&amp;height=720&amp;quality=75&amp;r=fill&amp;g=no" medium="image" type="image/jpeg">
        <media:credit role="photographer">Jean Bizimana</media:credit>
        <media:credit role="provider">REUTERS</media:credit>
        <media:title>A general view shows a street in Kigali</media:title>
      </media:content>
      <dc:creator><![CDATA[Believe Domor]]></dc:creator>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Philippines roundup: Economic ties with Israel, 2026 growth forecast raised, US tariff impact</title>
      <link>https://www.globalsouthworld.com/article/philippines-roundup-economic-ties-with-israel-2026-growth-forecast-raised-us-tariff-impact</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="true">https://www.globalsouthworld.com/article/philippines-roundup-economic-ties-with-israel-2026-growth-forecast-raised-us-tariff-impact</guid>
      <pubDate>Fri, 01 Aug 2025 22:01:37 Z</pubDate>
      <description><![CDATA[<p>Philippines' growth unaffected by US tariff hike</p>
<p>The Philippine economy is expected to  withstand a potential 19% US tariff  with minimal disruption, says DEPDev Secretary Arsenio Balisacan. He credits the nation’s diversified exports and focus on productivity and infrastructure. Balisacan noted that broad export markets cushion GDP from tariff shocks, while import changes may have a larger effect. He assured that GDP targets remain intact due to strong fundamentals. To sustain growth, Balisacan emphasised the need to diversify exports, boost productivity, and remove barriers for businesses and startups.</p>
<p>Philippines, Israel eye closer economic ties</p>
<p>The growing economic partnership between the  Philippines and Israel  was highlighted at a July 29 gala attended by Israeli Economy Minister Nir Barkat and DTI Secretary Cristina Roque. Both officials expressed optimism about a potential free trade agreement and deeper cooperation in trade, tourism, and innovation. Barkat proposed reducing tariffs to zero, calling the countries’ economies “complementary.” He also noted untapped tourism potential, citing low Israeli tourist arrivals in the Philippines compared to Thailand, and stressed the need for direct flights to boost travel and people-to-people exchanges. He invited Filipinos, especially Catholic pilgrims, to visit the Holy Land and shared plans to restore biblical sites like the Pool of Siloam in Jerusalem.</p>
<p>IMF raises 2026 growth forecast for the Philippines</p>
<p>The IMF has  upgraded  its 2026 growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.9% from 5.8%, citing strong economic fundamentals and ongoing reforms. The revised outlook reflects continued confidence in the country’s resilience despite global challenges. For 2025, the IMF maintained its 5.5% growth forecast, aligning with the government’s target range of 5.5% to 6.5%.</p>
<p>Philippines' clean energy transition sees coal decline</p>
<p>Coal-fired power in the Philippines is set to  decline  by 5.2% in early 2025, the first drop since 2008, signalling a shift toward cleaner energy, according to IEEFA. Despite claims linking the decline to LNG, no new gas-fired capacity was added from 2017 to 2024. In contrast, over 1 GW of solar was installed in 2024, boosted by government-led renewable auctions. The country’s competitive power market also mandates least-cost energy sourcing, further supporting clean energy growth.</p>
<p>Philippines considers raising online gambling tax to over 30%</p>
<p>The Philippine government is  reviewing  its online gambling framework, with talks underway to tighten regulations, according to Finance Secretary Ralph Recto. While seen as a key revenue source, officials are weighing the risks of higher taxes. Currently, operators contribute 25% of gross gaming revenue to PAGCOR. Proposed reforms may raise this to 30% or more. However, Recto warned that excessive taxation could drive more operators underground, especially with 60% of the sector already unregulated.</p>
]]></description>
      <source url="https://www.globalsouthworld.com">Global South World</source>
      <media:content url="https://gsw.codexcdn.net/assets/asE8UnDUscWHGMyk3.jpg?width=1280&amp;height=720&amp;quality=75&amp;r=fill&amp;g=no" medium="image" type="image/jpeg">
        <media:credit role="photographer">Kent Nishimura</media:credit>
        <media:credit role="provider">REUTERS</media:credit>
        <media:title>Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visits Washington</media:title>
      </media:content>
      <dc:creator><![CDATA[Abigail Johnson Boakye]]></dc:creator>
    </item>
  </channel>
</rss>