Correlation is not causation, and the report is clear about that. But drawing on 15 years of research, it concludes that climate change is making conflict more likely - not as a sole cause, but as a force that intensifies existing pressures such as poverty, weak governance , and competition over land and water.

Few people have explored this relationship as closely as Peter Schwartzstein, author of The Heat and the Fury: On the Frontlines of Climate Violence . After more than a decade reporting from over 30 countries, he argues that climate change is deeply embedded in modern conflict, even when it is not immediately visible. As he puts it: “We are not adequately taking into account how climate change is acting on other drivers of instability, like corruption and inequality and state mismanagement. And as a consequence, I think we are systematically underestimating the sheer volume of violence that has at least some kind of climate and environment component.”

Climate amplification

The European Commission identifies Iraq and the wider Middle East as regions where these risks are particularly acute. Schwartzstein spent three years in Iraq, conducting hundreds of interviews to understand how environmental stress can evolve into outright conflict. His reporting suggests that climate change often acts as an accelerant. “Perhaps the simplest way to think about climate’s contribution to violence,” he explains, “is that climate is amplifying whatever a society’s existing weaknesses are.”

In Syria, for example, a prolonged drought in the years leading up to 2011 placed immense strain on already fragile rural communities. Farmers described how worsening conditions eroded their tolerance for corruption and state neglect. As Schwartzstein recounts, “The very fact that they were facing demands for bribes at a time when their agricultural fortunes were just worsening and worsening was just a proverbial bridge too far.” In the hardest hit areas, resentment deepened, creating fertile ground for extremist recruitment. “The more drought-battered an area… the greater ISIS recruiters’ capacity to bring people into their ranks,” he says, adding: “Think of climate as a force that’s just seizing upon whatever the existing troubles are and running with it.”

In Iraq, these dynamics became even more complex. Schwartzstein found that ISIS recruiters learned to exploit not just poverty, but perceptions of inequality. Villages on the outskirts of Mosul - close enough to see the city’s relative prosperity - experienced some of the highest recruitment rates. “The very fact that they were on the doorstep of the city… meant that expansion in relative inequality was just an extremely useful recruiting lever,” he explains. Recruiters also manipulated environmental hardship for political ends, framing drought as a deliberate act by the government. “On a certain level it didn’t really matter whether local people believed this narrative… they were happy to seize upon it because it suited their priors.”

While much of the focus is on fragile states, Schwartzstein warns against viewing climate-driven instability as a distant problem. Its effects are already visible in wealthier countries. “If we look in the US, violence against women almost always spikes very aggressively in the aftermath of hurricanes,” he notes, with shelters overwhelmed in their aftermath. In Europe, rising temperatures are also linked to increased aggression. “Aggressive behaviour… is significantly more intense in summer months,” he says, pointing to physiological responses to extreme heat. Making these connections visible, he argues, helps bring the issue closer to home: “We’re that bit more likely to convey what’s going on… when describing [it] in ways that the average person… can understand.”

Political capital

Climate stress can also reshape politics. As livelihoods and landscapes change, uncertainty and anxiety create opportunities for more extreme narratives. “Populist movements are beneficiaries of climate stresses in quite a few ways,” Schwartzstein explains. Economic pressures such as inflation, combined with a broader sense of disruption, can drive shifts in voting behaviour. “Climate change contributes to… a sort of devil-may-care attitude… a shock among so many people who… notice that so much of what they love and care about is changing.” In that atmosphere, he argues, populist leaders gain traction by offering simple explanations and clear scapegoats: “That climate of shock and confusion… is the sort of political ambiance that populists tend to make hay from.”

Yet climate is not only a driver of conflict - it is also a casualty of it. In times of crisis, environmental concerns are often pushed aside as governments and populations focus on immediate survival. Schwartzstein points to Iran as a current example, where escalating tensions risk sidelining urgent climate challenges. “This is just more months - at best - in which these fast-intensifying climate shocks will be left to fester,” he warns. While acknowledging the severity of ongoing conflicts, he adds that from a global perspective, such distractions come at a high cost: “This is just the kind of… shenanigans… that we absolutely cannot afford at this time.”

World Reframed episode 36. More episodes of World Reframed.

World Reframed is produced in London by Global South World, part of the Impactum Group. Its editors are Duncan Hooper and Ismail Akwei.

ISSN 2978-4891

Mazen Alloush, Director of Relations at Syria’s General Authority for Borders and Customs, said preparations had been underway for weeks.

Sadrist Movement official Sabah al-Saadi said the demonstrations reflected Iraqis’ desire for peace, freedom and dignity, while rejecting aggression, colonialism and foreign domination in the region. Another protester, Sheikh Muhammad al-Atwani, denounced attacks on what he described as safe areas, including schools sheltering families and children, and reaffirmed opposition to occupation.

The protests followed a statement issued by al-Sadr earlier in the week urging Iraqis to take to the streets to condemn what he called “Zionist-American aggression” and to call for peace . Demonstrators said Iraq and the wider region wanted stability, but rejected what they described as U.S.-Israeli hegemony against Arab and Muslim peoples.

Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters later praised Iraq’s position, thanking in particular the Popular Mobilisation forces, resistance factions and the Shiite community for their support. It also said Iraq would be exempt from any Iranian transit restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Regional tensions have soared since the United States and Israel launched a joint military operation against Iran on February 28, amid diplomatic efforts over Tehran’s nuclear and missile programmes.

The United States spent an estimated $4.7 trillion (inflation-adjusted) on World War II between 1941 and 1945, making it the most expensive war in American history.

According to historical cost estimates analysed by Norwich University and U.S. Naval History and Heritage Command, the spending surge was driven by massive industrial mobilisation, troop deployments across multiple continents and large-scale wartime production.

The conflict required the United States to convert large parts of its economy to wartime manufacturing, producing ships, aircraft, tanks and weapons on an unprecedented scale.

The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, launched after the September 11 attacks, rank as the second most expensive U.S. conflicts, with total costs estimated at around $4 trillion.

Research from the Costs of War Project at Brown University’s Watson Institute shows that the total financial burden includes military operations, reconstruction, veterans’ healthcare and long-term interest payments on war borrowing.

The study notes that these wars became some of the longest military engagements in modern U.S. history.

The Vietnam War ranks third in inflation-adjusted costs at roughly $843 billion, according to historical analyses cited by Norwich University and U.S. government sources.

The conflict , which lasted from the mid-1950s to 1975, required sustained troop deployments and extensive air and naval operations.

Other major conflicts include:

Both wars required large-scale mobilisation and had significant long-term economic impacts on the United States.

Additionally, the 1990–1991 Gulf War cost about $102 billion, though a large portion of that expense was offset by financial contributions from U.S. allies, according to reports summarised by the U.S. Congress and historical defence spending analyses.

More limited conflicts or short military operations tend to cost far less, though they can still involve billions in military expenditures.

For example, a brief six-day military campaign against Iran since February 28, 2026, is calculated at roughly $11 billion, reflecting the high cost of modern precision warfare and advanced weapon systems even during short engagements.

The enormous financial burden of large-scale wars has shaped U.S. foreign policy and defence strategy over time.

Despite advances in military technology and changes in warfare, the historical data show that major conflicts remain among the most expensive undertakings any nation can face.

The warning comes a week after Washington urged its nationals to leave Iraq, after the United States launched strikes with Israel against Iran on February 28, triggering a wider regional conflict that has threatened US-linked interests across the Middle East.

The alert was issued as fighting continued on multiple fronts. Iranian state television reported heavy explosions in central Tehran on Friday, while the Israeli military warned residents in two Tehran neighbourhoods to evacuate ahead of strikes.

In Oman, state media said two people were killed after security forces intercepted a drone in an industrial area, with others injured.

The embassy did not provide specific details of any new kidnapping plot, but urged US citizens to remain alert and monitor official updates as security conditions change quickly.

Iraq hosts US diplomatic facilities and American personnel, and has long been a focal point for tensions between Washington and Tehran-linked armed groups, a risk that analysts say tends to rise during periods of regional escalation.

Protesters held Iraqi flags, setting fire to images of Trump and the US flag. The demonstration took place under heightened security measures.

The protest followed Trump’s comments on his Truth Social platform, where he warned that “Iraq could make a grave mistake by re-electing Nouri al-Maliki as Prime Minister.” He also threatened to withdraw US aid to Iraq, adding that without it “there will be no chance for success, prosperity, or freedom.”

In response, al-Maliki stated on Wednesday evening through his official X account. “We categorically reject the blatant American interference in Iraq's internal affairs,” he wrote.

The 75-year-old Nouri al-Maliki, a senior Iraqi political figure, served as Prime Minister from 2006 to 2014 and Vice President twice, from 2014 to 2015 and from 2016 to 2018.

Three years after the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq that resulted in the execution of long‑time leader Saddam Hussein, al‑Maliki became the country’s first full‑term prime minister in the post‑Saddam era. 

As Iraq prepares for its parliamentary elections scheduled for November, the country’s electoral commission has introduced new restrictions on campaign activities to ensure fairness and orderliness during the pre-election period. These restrictions include limitations on public rallies, a ban on hate speech and sectarian propaganda, and stricter financial disclosure requirements for candidates and parties. The commission’s decision aims to minimise tensions that often accompany Iraq’s high-stakes political contests and to address the growing public demand for transparency and accountability. Observers note that this move reflects lessons learned from past elections marred by allegations of vote-buying, violence, and foreign interference. However, some political actors view the restrictions as overreach that could stifle opposition voices, adding another layer of complexity to Iraq’s fragile democratic process.

Badr bloc threatens to sever ties with Turkey over water crisis

The Badr bloc, one of Iraq’s most influential political factions, has issued a stern warning to Ankara, threatening to cut diplomatic ties with Turkey if it does not address the ongoing water crisis affecting Iraq’s Tigris and Euphrates rivers. The bloc accuses Turkey of hoarding water through dam projects that have drastically reduced Iraq’s water supply, leading to severe agricultural damage and growing discontent among farmers. The threat underscores the broader regional tensions surrounding transboundary water rights in the Middle East, where upstream nations like Turkey wield considerable leverage. The crisis has already sparked protests in southern cities such as Basra, where water scarcity has led to both environmental and public health challenges. Iraq’s government is now under pressure to negotiate more assertively with Turkey to secure water flow agreements that protect its national interests while maintaining regional stability.

Iraq's political enigma: The unpredictable man oeuvre s of Muqtada al-Sadr

Muqtada al-Sadr continues to confound Iraq’s political establishment with his unconventional and unpredictable manoeuvres. The populist cleric, who commands vast grassroots support and a disciplined movement, has oscillated between political engagement and withdrawal, shaping Iraq’s political narrative at every turn. His recent statements and actions have reignited speculation about whether he will re-enter the political fray ahead of the 2025 elections or continue his role as an outsider influencing from the sidelines. Al-Sadr’s strategy has consistently centred on portraying himself as a reformist and nationalist voice against corruption and foreign domination—particularly Iranian and American influence. Analysts suggest that his unpredictability is both a strength and a source of instability in Iraqi politics, as his sudden shifts can alter alliances and derail institutional processes. His next move could significantly influence Iraq’s path toward either reform or renewed gridlock.

Iraqi MP announces completion of impeachment process for PM Al-Sudani

A dramatic development unfolded in Baghdad’s political circles as an Iraqi Member of Parliament announced the completion of the impeachment process against Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani. The move marks a critical juncture in Iraq’s internal power dynamics, with critics accusing the prime minister of mismanagement, political favouritism, and failure to deliver on key reforms promised after his election. Supporters of Al-Sudani, however, argue that the impeachment is politically motivated, orchestrated by rival blocs seeking to destabilise the government ahead of the elections. If pursued, the impeachment could plunge Iraq into another round of political uncertainty, threatening to derail public administration and reform programs. The development has also sparked concerns among international partners, who view Iraq’s political stability as essential for regional security and economic progress.

President Barzani urges Kurdish candidates to prioriti s e unity ahead of Iraq elections

In a speech aimed at the Kurdish political leadership, President Nechirvan Barzani called for unity among Kurdish candidates and parties as Iraq approaches its national elections. Barzani emphasised that internal divisions within the Kurdish political spectrum have weakened their collective influence in Baghdad, particularly during crucial negotiations over budgets, oil revenue sharing, and security arrangements. He urged Kurdish factions to focus on common goals rather than partisan rivalries, warning that fragmentation could marginalise Kurdish interests at a time when the central government in Baghdad is consolidating power. His message resonated strongly in the Kurdistan Region, where growing dissatisfaction over governance, corruption, and public service delivery has fueled voter apathy. Barzani’s appeal reflects a broader recognition that Kurdish unity is pivotal not only for electoral success but also for maintaining leverage in Iraq’s complex federal system.