The imbalance has prompted critics to question whether the poll represents a genuine democratic contest or simply a formality to extend CCM’s near five-decade rule.

Opposition sidelined

Tanzania’s two largest opposition parties, CHADEMA and ACT-Wazalendo, are not taking part after accusing the government of orchestrating a systematic crackdown on dissent. Several of their key leaders have been barred from running, while others face ongoing court cases or arbitrary detention.

In April, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) disqualified CHADEMA’s presidential candidate on what the party described as “manufactured technicalities.” International news agency Reuters later confirmed that other opposition figures were similarly struck off ballots at local and parliamentary levels.

Human rights groups, including Amnesty International, have reported a “climate of fear”, citing arbitrary arrests, media restrictions, and enforced disappearances in the lead-up to the vote.

“Authorities have intensified repression ahead of the elections, instilling fear among activists, journalists, and ordinary citizens,” Amnesty said in an October report .

When Samia Suluhu Hassan took office in 2021 following the death of John Magufuli, she was initially praised for loosening restrictions on the opposition and reopening civic space. But over time, that image has faded.

Opposition activists say the state has perfected a softer, procedural form of authoritarianism — one that relies less on overt violence and more on bureaucratic obstacles, judicial harassment, and control of the media landscape.

Economic background

Beyond the political contest, Tanzanians continue to grapple with everyday struggles; unreliable electricity, water shortages, unemployment, and poor healthcare.

Still, many voters feel there is little space for genuine alternatives, with the ruling party dominating the political narrative and state machinery.

What’s next

Election observers from the East African Community (EAC) and the African Union have deployed missions across the country, but analysts remain skeptical about whether their presence will ensure transparency.

Simone Gbagbo: From first lady to opposition leader

Among Ouattara’s challengers is Simone Gbagbo, 76, a veteran political figure and former first lady. Once a close ally of her ex-husband and former president Laurent Gbagbo, she was arrested alongside him in 2011 after post-election violence that left around 3,000 people dead.

Convicted of crimes against the state and sentenced to 20 years in prison, she was granted amnesty in 2018. Now leading the Movement of Skilled Generations party, founded in 2022, Gbagbo has positioned herself as a voice for social justice . At her campaign launch early in October, she acknowledged Ouattara’s infrastructure gains but said Ivorians were demanding better health care and jobs.

Jean-Louis Billon: The Business-focused reformist

Businessman and former trade minister Jean-Louis Billon, 60, is contesting the election under the Democratic Congress, a coalition of 18 parties and movements. Billon had initially sought to represent the main opposition Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI) but was sidelined after the party’s leader, Tidjane Thiam, was disqualified over dual nationality issues.

Billon has promised to modernize the public sector, curb corruption, and attract more private investment. He has also pledged to move some government offices to the political capital, Yamoussoukro, and to amend laws that restrict dual citizenship. “It’s time for Ouattara and his generation to leave the scene,” Billon said in a recent interview with Reuters.

Ahoua Don Mello: The independent nationalist

Ahoua Don Mello, 67, a former spokesperson for Laurent Gbagbo during the 2010–11 crisis, is running as an independent after being expelled from Gbagbo’s African People’s Party (PPA-CI) for defying its election boycott. He argues that participating in the vote is essential to avoid a repeat of 2020, when the opposition’s boycott handed Ouattara a landslide victory. Don Mello has called for Ivory Coast to abandon the CFA franc currency and revise its defence agreements with France . While critics accuse him of pushing a pro-Russian agenda, he recently told France 24 that he was not “Vladimir Putin’s man.”

Henriette Lagou Adjoua: The centrist advocate for women

Henriette Lagou Adjoua, 66, a former minister for social affairs and women’s affairs, is also joining the race. Representing the Group of Political Partners for Peace, a centrist coalition, she is campaigning on a platform of reconciliation and gender inclusion.

Adjoua, who also ran unsuccessfully in 2015, has urged Ivorians to heal the “wounds of the past” and push for greater female representation in politics. Her recent book, Why Not a Woman? , advocates for a more inclusive political landscape.

As Ouattara seeks to extend his long rule, the October 25 election will test Ivorians’ appetite for continuity versus change, and whether the country’s fractured opposition can mount a credible challenge.