“The RSF controls most of western Sudan; the army holds the east, including the capital. The centre is a battleground,” van Linge said, describing RSF methods as “genocidal” and warning that if the last major holdout city in Darfur falls, “tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands, of lives could be at risk.”

What’s happening on the ground?

Amongst many other strategies, the RSF has tightened its control of El Fasher, the Sudanese army’s final stronghold in Darfur and a refuge for hundreds of thousands, using berms and earth walls to cut off routes, amid shelling and ground assaults. A report from the Middle East Eye indicated that independent satellite analysis and field reporting depict a city starved of supplies and pounded by fire. 

There have also been reports of killings of fleeing civilians and summary executions. Local and international monitors have documented summary executions by the RSF and allied militias, with multiple recent incidents around El Fasher and displacement camps; a reputable Sudan outlet reported at least 15 civilians shot dead while attempting to flee the city. “At least 15 people were executed on Saturday morning by RSF gunfire while trying to reach the town of Garni, west of El Fasher,” a source told the Sudan Tribune .

The UN human rights office has repeatedly flagged continuing killings in El Fasher and Abu Shouk camp, while earlier UN alerts reported emerging patterns of summary executions in the conflict. 

The Human Rights Watch World Report 2025 details “executions, torture and ill-treatment” by RSF and army forces across multiple fronts, adding to a record of ethnically targeted attacks in Darfur that UN experts and rights groups say could amount to mass atrocities.  

Van Linge traced the war to a rupture inside the security apparatus, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) versus the RSF, a powerful paramilitary with roots in Darfur militias. The RSF advanced early across much of Darfur and parts of central Sudan, while the SAF consolidated in the east.