A new analysis by World Visualized, drawing on data from WorldStats, highlights that Myanmar tops the list of countries with the highest per capita rice consumption at a staggering 278.97 kg per person per year.

It’s followed closely by Comoros (274.51 kg), Gambia (256.4 kg), Cambodia (247.54 kg), and Bangladesh (246.85 kg). Completing the top ten are Vietnam, Laos, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia .

According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), global rice utilisation in 2023/24 stood at approximately 522 million tonnes, reflecting steady demand despite elevated prices. However, projections for 2024/25 indicate renewed growth, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where consumption is expected to continue expanding.

The FAO and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) both forecast a rise in global rice output through 2025/26. The USDA estimates total production could reach 541.6 million tonnes (milled basis), led by higher yields in India and Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, global rice trade is projected to climb to nearly 60 million tonnes, driven largely by expanding Indian exports.

India, the world’s largest rice exporter, recently lifted its two-year ban on de-oiled rice bran exports, easing domestic stockpiles and injecting new volume into the global market.

However, not all policy movements are liberalising. The Philippines, one of Asia’s largest rice importers, may extend its import restrictions into early 2026 to protect local farmers, a move analysts say could tighten supply and nudge prices upward in the coming quarters.

Global rice prices have been on a sharp downward trend. The FAO Rice Price Index has fallen about 13% in 2025, and benchmark prices for Thailand ’s 5% broken white rice are now at their lowest levels in eight years. The drop comes after record harvests and excess stockpiles, particularly from India, which exported more than 33 million tonnes in 2024.

Following India in the top ten are Thailand (10.9 M), Vietnam (8.6 M), Pakistan (6.7 M), Belgium (4.9 M), China (3.2 M), Myanmar (3.2 M), the U.S.A (3.0 M), Brazil (2.0 M), and the Netherlands (1.6 M).

These figures, from WorldStats, offer a vivid map of who’s dominating the international rice trade this year.

But behind those numbers lie deeper forces at work, ones that pit bumper harvests against fragile farmer margins, shifting trade rules, and global food security questions.

Oversupply meets policy shifts

The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) in May projected that global rice production in 2024/25 will expand by about 1.5 percent, reaching 543.6 million tonnes, which would be a new record. With more rice in the world and more sellers competing, supply is outpacing demand in many markets.

India’s role in this story is pivotal. As the largest exporter of rice, its export behaviour echoes globally. In 2025, India has set an ambitious export target of 30 million tons for the 2025–2026 season, a move expected to add downward pressure on global rice prices.

India is looking to broaden its export markets beyond its traditional buyers in Africa, negotiating with countries such as the Philippines.

This influx of supply has already contributed to price declines. Global rice prices have dropped significantly as Thailand, Vietnam, and India have started releasing large volumes. The FAO All Rice Price Index has fallen, with some benchmarks hitting their lowest in years.

At the same time, the Philippines, one of the world’s largest rice importers, plans to extend its rice import ban until April to protect domestic farmers. That move may tighten demand further and ripple through international prices.

This shift comes on the heels of record-breaking harvests and a boom in acreage. The USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board highlights that India has expanded its harvested rice area to 50–51 million hectares, delivering yields that are among the highest seen, driven by favourable monsoon rains, government support via minimum support prices (MSP), and high-performing seed varieties.

In fact, India's 2024–25 rice production is projected by the USDA at 147 million metric tons, marking its highest-ever output and securing its position as the world’s top producer.

India’s rise contributes to a broader trend: global rice production is hitting records. The USDA forecasts 535–536 million metric tons of milled rice for the 2024–25 season, up several percentage points from the previous year.

This surge is not limited to India; other countries like Indonesia , Cambodia, Brazil, and Vietnam also contribute significantly, though none come close to India's or China’s combined dominance.

India’s bumper harvests have led to record stockpiles, nearly 44 million tonnes of rice in state granaries, far exceeding government targets. To prevent oversupply, New Delhi raised procurement prices, the smallest increase in years, aiming to moderate production incentives and balance exports with domestic supply needs.

China, meanwhile, appears to be easing in consumption; domestic rice use is projected to decline slightly even as production stays high.

A research team from Huazhong Agricultural University found that QT12 interacts with the NF-Y protein complex to protect developing grains during extreme heat, stabilising starch and protein synthesis even under environmental stress, the Tribune reports.

In field trials conducted during last year’s record-breaking heatwaves, rice plants modified with QT12 showed remarkable results. When inserted into the hybrid rice variety “Huazhan,” yields increased by up to 77.9% in cities across China’s Yangtze River basin, a region that produces two-thirds of the country's rice.

“These results demonstrate QT12’s potential as a powerful tool to combat yield loss caused by rising global temperatures. This gene offers a novel molecular strategy to breed rice that performs well under heat stress without compromising quality,” said Li Yibo, the study’s corresponding author.

Li added that the discovery not only provides insight into the molecular mechanisms of heat tolerance in rice but also opens new avenues for developing climate-resilient crop varieties.

The research team is now collaborating with domestic agricultural companies to fasten the integration of QT12 into commercial rice breeding programs.

Kenya currently has a big gap between the rice it produces and the rice it consumes.

The country eats more than one million metric tonnes of rice every year, but local farmers only grow about 230,000 metric tonnes.

As a result, Kenya has to import rice to fill the gap, spending around $300 million annually.

Ephantus Kimotho, the principal secretary for irrigation, says ongoing irrigation projects will help Kenya grow more rice.

One of the biggest projects, the Bura irrigation scheme, is expected to save the country millions once completed. Another major project, the Thiba Dam, has already helped increase rice production from 190,000 to 270,000 metric tonnes.

The government is also working with private investors to expand farming in the Galana Kulalu area.

In April 2025, a private company will begin farming on 5,400 acres there with plans to expand irrigation projects to 200,000 acres.

One of the key investors, Al Dahra Group, has already signed an agreement to conduct technical studies before large-scale farming begins.

Kenya’s irrigation ministry says it needs about Sh50.75 billion to complete all these projects in the next financial year.

However, the government has only allocated Sh18.86 billion so far, a gap the ministry is hoping will be filled by development partners.

Some projects, like the Siyoi Muruny and Umaa Dams, were supposed to be finished this year but have been delayed due to a lack of funds.

Other dams, like Mwache Dam in Kilifi, are still under construction but will provide clean water to cities like Mombasa once completed.

Kimotho says the government is committed to expanding irrigation, improving food production, and making Kenya self-sufficient in rice.

“When Kenya Kwanza came to power, the country was producing 190,000 metric tonnes of rice, which has since increased to 270,000 metric tonnes,” he said.

The plan is to continue expanding farming so that by 2032, Kenya can grow all the rice it needs.

Indonesia's rice output is projected to decline by 2.43% this year, falling to 30.34 million metric tons, a result of delays in both planting and harvest seasons amid unusually extended dry spells in 2023, the country’s statistics bureau reported earlier this month.

"We need an additional 1 million tons…so that we can go through February. Output in the December-February period is usually lower," explained Head of the National Food Agency, Arief Prasetyo Adi, addressing reporters after discussions with Minister Hasan.

For Indonesia’s population of 280 million, rice is a staple, and the main rice harvest season typically starts in March. In recent years, the Southeast Asian nation has ramped up rice imports, with volumes exceeding 3 million metric tons annually over the past two years.

This year, Indonesia aims to import as much as 3.6 million tons of rice, while also planning to open between 750,000 and 1 million hectares (2.47 million acres) of new rice fields by 2025. This initiative supports President Prabowo Subianto’s target to achieve food self-sufficiency.

Meanwhile, India—the world’s largest rice exporter—recently removed the floor price for non-basmati white rice exports, a move expected to increase shipments amid higher domestic output and significant stockpiles following 2023 export restrictions.

The 40-year-old Joufi, whose land is in the central province of Najaf, shared his experience: “Using traditional methods, 10 to 15 people were required to manually get the water from here and there. Now, only one person is needed to operate the sprinklers and pump, and the field is irrigated properly," he is quoted by the AFP:

Joufi is among the farmers receiving support from the agriculture ministry, whose experts have been developing innovative methods to save Iraq’s rice production. In 2023, al-Ghari, a genotype derived from Iraq’s prized amber rice and South Asian jasmine seeds yielded good results when cultivated with small sprinklers.

"We worked on al-Ghari seed for almost 15 years and conducted all the necessary experiments on this genotype which is superior to other types that are found in Iraq, and it also withstands water scarcity," said Abdel Kazem Jawad Moussa, an official of the Agricultural Research Department in al-Mishkhab.

Iraq, still recovering from years of war and chaos, relies on rice and bread as dietary staples. According to the United Nations Global Environment Outlook 6 (GEO-6) , the Middle Eastern nation is identified as the world's fifth most vulnerable country to decreasing water and food availability and extreme temperatures. During the period of drought, the rice cultivation area decreased from over 30,000 hectares to just 5,000, the agriculture ministry reported .

"The last year of abundance was around 2020. After that, there was a drought, and the pandemic and other events in the country. Rice cultivation stopped mainly because of water scarcity. During these years, the farmer suffered," Fayez al-Yassiri, another farmer with a field in Diwaniyah, the capital city of Iraq's Al-Qādisiyyah Governorate said.

Vietnam's Prime Minister has engaged in discussions with representatives from the World Bank regarding the bank's proposed $11 billion loan for Vietnam over the next five years. According to Viet Nam News , the loan is earmarked for infrastructure, energy, and agriculture projects aimed at fostering sustainable growth and tackling climate change issues. The World Bank has pledged to collaborate closely with Vietnam to ensure the effective functioning of its regional office and to assist Vietnam in achieving its development objectives for 2030 and 2050.

Coffee prices turnover

Coffee prices have settled higher due to concerns about the coffee crop in Brazil and Vietnam. This has led to an increase in options trading signals and unusual options activity. According to Barchart , a negative influence on the coffee market was the International Coffee Association's (ICO) report on Monday, revealing a 6.8% year-on-year increase in global coffee exports for February, reaching 11.33 million bags. Additionally, total global coffee exports for the period from October to February of the 2023/24 season surged by 11.1% year-on-year to reach 56.2 million bags.

Rice export gains

Vietnam's rice prices rose last week, putting the country at the top for export prices. The 5% broken rice is priced at $585 per ton, higher than Thailand and Pakistan. Vietnam earned $2.08 billion from exporting 3.23 million tons of rice in the first four months of the year. The country's rice output is expected to reach 43 million tons in 2024, reports the Sun .

Pepper price increment

Vietnamese pepper prices have been steadily increasing, reaching levels of $4.68-$4.71 per kilo. The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association predicts that prices could hit new peaks of $13.75-$15.72 per kilo in the next decade. The market is not ready to cool down, with shortages and high demand pushing up prices. As reported by Viet Nam News , the International Pepper Community (IPC) also showed big fluctuations in trading sessions.

$136 million investment abroad

Vietnamese enterprises invested $136 million in new and existing projects abroad in the first five months of the year, with a focus on mining, manufacturing, and trading. The Netherlands and Laos were the top recipients of Vietnamese investment. As of May 20, Vietnam had 1,733 operational projects abroad, with the majority of investments in the mining and agro-forestry-fishery sectors. Laos, Cambodia, and Venezuela were the top recipients of Vietnamese investment, Viet Nam News reports.