China’s exports have stayed firm overall, rising 8.3% in September from a year earlier, but shipments to the US plunged 27%. Electric vehicle exports doubled, yet retail sales grew only 3% and spending during the Golden Week holiday was “mildly disappointing,” analysts at Morningstar said.

Residential sales fell 7.6% in the first nine months of the year, and S&P expects new home sales to drop a further 8% in 2025. Economists expect a central bank rate cut by year’s end as authorities look for ways to revive demand.

Across the Pacific , the US faces its own strain. The national debt has topped $38 trillion for the first time, as a government shutdown leaves hundreds of thousands of federal workers unpaid and delays key spending decisions.

“Reaching $38 trillion in debt during a government shutdown is the latest troubling sign that lawmakers are not meeting their basic fiscal duties,” said Michael Peterson of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. 

The debt has climbed from $34 trillion in January 2024, an unusually fast pace. The Trump administration says it is tightening spending and cutting the deficit. Treasury data show a $468 billion shortfall from April to September, the lowest since 2019. 

But with voter concern about debt rising, and China’s growth slowing, both superpowers head into APEC under pressure to prove they can keep their economies — and their rivalry — under control.