This interest came sharply into focus just after Christmas, when a short statement appeared on the Israeli government’s website. In it, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Somaliland for fighting terrorism and advancing regional peace and said he accepted its independent statehood. The announcement marked the latest and most controversial chapter in a long-running geopolitical contest over the Horn of Africa.

Two to one

To understand why so many powers are invested in Somaliland’s future, it is necessary to look back to the early twentieth century. What is now Somalia was once divided between two European colonial powers. The northwestern region, shaped like the head of a horse angled toward North Africa, was British Somaliland. The rest, stretching along the Indian Ocean coastline, was an Italian colony. The two territories were administered very differently. Britain was primarily concerned with supplying its naval base in Aden and took a limited interest in the development of British Somaliland. Italy, by contrast, pursued a more ambitious imperial project, establishing plantations and centralising governance in an effort to generate wealth.

In 1960, both territories gained independence and agreed to unite as the Somali Republic. But the new state faltered. A military coup in 1969 brought Siad Barre to power, ushering in a long dictatorship. When Barre was overthrown in 1991, the Somali state collapsed entirely. Amid the chaos, the former British Somaliland unilaterally declared independence. The move attracted little international attention at the time, as global efforts focused on preventing humanitarian catastrophes elsewhere in Somalia. Over the following decades, multinational interventions failed to stabilise the country, while piracy and militant groups, most notably al-Shabaab, flourished.

Since around 2012, however, conditions have improved somewhat. Somalia has re-emerged as a federal state, with Somaliland largely left to govern itself, and the neighbouring region of Puntland also enjoying significant autonomy from Mogadishu. Supporters of Somaliland argue that it has demonstrated political maturity through peaceful transfers of power and the development of its own legal and governmental institutions.

Israel's interest

Israel’s interest in Somaliland is not new. Contacts between the two date back several decades, perhaps driven by a shared sense of isolation. More significantly, Somaliland occupies a strategic position near the Bab el Mandeb strait, the narrow passage guarding the entrance to the Red Sea. This is one of the world’s most important shipping routes and one that could be disrupted with relative ease.

That geography has taken on heightened importance for Israel due to Iran’s presence across the strait in Yemen, where Tehran backs the Houthi movement. From Israel’s perspective, access to bases or partners in Somaliland would provide an opportunity to pressure the Houthis from the south as well as from Israeli territory itself.

The diplomatic push and pull extends far beyond Israel and Iran. The European Union, the African Union, and 21 Arab and African countries have condemned Israel’s move. Among them is Turkey, which has cultivated close security and commercial ties with the Somali government in Mogadishu and harbours its own regional ambitions. China has also voiced opposition, viewing the Horn of Africa as a critical node in its Belt and Road trade network. Beijing is deeply wary of secessionist movements, in part because of concerns about its own territorial integrity, and is sending its foreign minister to Somalia to signal support for the federal government.

But the United Arab Emirates stands out for its absence from the Arab condemnation. The UAE has recently been embroiled in a bitter split with Saudi Arabia over influence in the Gulf of Aden in Yemen. As it seeks to protect its investments and trade routes, tacit support for Somaliland could offer strategic advantages, particularly if the United States were to follow Israel’s lead in recognising the region. Saudi Arabia, by contrast, did sign the declaration opposing recognition.

The possibility of US involvement cannot be dismissed. Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed hostility toward Somalia, going out of his way to insult the country and its people. In that context, it is not difficult to imagine him backing a breakup of the Somali state.

Ethiopia also has a strong stake in the outcome. It is Africa’s second most populous country, yet it is landlocked. Any arrangement that recognised Somaliland in exchange for access to the coast would be highly attractive to Addis Ababa.

United States of the Horn of Africa

With so many countries involved, the implications of recognising Somaliland reach far beyond the Horn of Africa. Such a move would inevitably raise questions about other unrecognised or partially recognised territories, including Western Sahara, Kosovo, and perhaps most sensitively, Palestine.

Some scholars argue that the crisis could also be an opportunity. Writing for Global South World , Ethiopian academic Seifudein Adem has suggested a compromise in the form of a federation of Horn of Africa states, including Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti. He notes that tribal and clan relationships in the region often matter more than national affiliations, yet do not align neatly with existing borders. Whether the recognition of Somaliland would bring the United States of the Horn of Africa closer or push it further from reality remains an open question.

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World Reframed is produced in London by Global South World, part of the Impactum Group. Its editors are Duncan Hooper and Ismail Akwei.

ISSN 2978-4891

Saudi Arabia has been involved in Yemen’s conflict since 2015. The kingdom views Yemen as essential to its national security due to its shared border and proximity to key shipping routes. Riyadh also aims to block the influence of Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

Saudi Arabia supports Yemen’s internationally recognised government , now based in the south after losing the capital, Sanaa, to the Houthis.

The Southern Transitional Council (STC), on the other hand, is a UAE-backed group that seeks independence for southern Yemen, which existed as a separate state before unification in 1990.

Although Saudi Arabia and the UAE began as allies in the fight against the Houthis, their goals have since diverged. Riyadh supports a unified Yemeni state, while Abu Dhabi prefers to back local actors in the south to safeguard its interests in ports, trade routes, and regional influence.

Yemen is now divided between Iran-backed Houthis, UAE-backed separatists, and the Saudi-backed government. The conflict has evolved into a multi-sided power struggle.

The involvement of the United States and Israel has added to the complexity. The US has supported Saudi operations with weapons and intelligence, while Red Sea shipping disruptions and regional tensions have drawn Israel into the broader conflict.

What follows is a country-by-country breakdown based on verified reporting.

Afghanistan

Bombed by: Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden

Why:

Afghanistan was bombed continuously from 2001 until the US withdrawal in 2021. Even after the formal end of the war, Biden authorised airstrikes, including the August 2021 Kabul drone strike that killed 10 civilians , later acknowledged by the Pentagon.

Iraq

Bombed by: Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden

Why:

Iraq remains one of the longest-running theatres of US air operations , spanning two decades despite the formal declarations of war ending.

Syria

Bombed by: Obama, Trump, Biden

Why:

The US has never declared war on Syria, yet airstrikes have continued under three administrations without congressional authorisation.

Yemen

Bombed by: Obama, Trump, Biden

Why:

Yemen became one of the most drone-bombed countries in the world, with repeated civilian casualty reports.

Somalia

Bombed by: Obama, Trump, Biden

Why:

Somalia has seen some of the least transparent US air operations, with casualty investigations often delayed or disputed.

Libya

Bombed by: Obama, Trump

Why:

Libya illustrates how a humanitarian intervention evolved into long-term instability, with US airstrikes continuing after regime change.

Pakistan

Bombed by: Bush, Obama, Trump

Why:

Pakistan was central to the CIA’s drone programme, particularly under Obama, who authorised more strikes there than any other president.

Nigeria

Bombed by: Trump

Why:

These territorial changes carry regional weight. The Houthis’ close links with Iran remain a central concern for Saudi Arabia and its Gulf partners, who see Yemen as part of a wider strategic contest. Since the conflict intensified in 2014, tens of thousands have been killed, and nearly half of the population now relies on humanitarian aid, according to the International Crisis Group.

Despite backing from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, the government has struggled to consolidate power, weakened by internal divisions and rival southern factions pushing for greater autonomy. The result is a fragmented political landscape that complicates efforts to end the war and stabilise the country.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, located just southwest of the Houthi-controlled areas, remains a flashpoint. The U.S. and allied navies have recently increased patrols to keep commercial traffic flowing after a spike in attacks on tankers and cargo ships initiated by Saudi Arabia last week.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia and Iran have signalled interest in diplomacy, including mediated talks in recent months. Still, scepticism persists on whether any agreement can withstand deep distrust built over years of proxy conflict.

For Yemen’s civilians, the fractured map above means continued uncertainty. Aid groups warn that disruptions in access to food, medicine and basic services remain severe. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimates that more than 17 million people are in need of urgent assistance.

Together, these crisis zones will shape migration flows, global security , trade routes, and diplomatic alignments well beyond their borders.

Sudan

Sudan remains the most severe humanitarian emergency globally. The civil war that erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has devastated the country, displacing millions and pushing large populations toward famine. In the last year, the conflict showed little sign of resolution, with fighting increasingly fragmented and spilling into neighbouring states such as Chad, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. This year, the country could risk sliding further toward de facto partition, a scenario that would entrench instability across the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea corridor.

Yemen

In Yemen, the conflict is evolving rather than ending. While large-scale fighting has reduced in some areas, the country is increasingly divided between Houthi-controlled territories in the north and rival factions in the south backed by regional powers. This fragmentation weakens prospects for national reconciliation and carries global implications due to Yemen’s proximity to vital Red Sea shipping lanes. As maritime security concerns grow, Yemen’s instability in 2026 will remain tightly linked to regional geopolitics and global trade.

Myanmar

Myanmar enters 2026 locked in a protracted civil war following the 2021 military coup. Armed resistance groups now control significant territory, while the junta struggles to govern beyond major urban centres. Planned or proposed elections under these conditions risk deepening Myanmar’s legitimacy crisis rather than resolving it. The humanitarian toll continues to rise, with millions displaced and neighbouring countries such as Thailand, China, and Bangladesh absorbing the spillover effects.

DR Congo

In eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, violence persists despite diplomatic efforts to stabilise the region. Armed groups, including M23, continue to challenge state authority, exploiting ethnic tensions, especially in Goma and competition over mineral resources. Peace agreements reached last year still face serious implementation challenges , and failure to consolidate them in 2026 could destabilise the wider Great Lakes region, where conflict has long crossed borders and drawn in neighbouring states.

Nigeria

Nigeria’s crisis heading into 2026 is defined by overlapping insurgency, criminal violence, and worsening economic pressure, with jihadist groups such as Boko Haram and ISWAP continuing attacks across the northeast and northwest. In the Middle Belt and parts of the north, violence has increasingly targeted Christian communities, with deadly attacks in late 2025 killing dozens of civilians in Benue and Plateau states, particularly around the Christmas period.

The situation escalated internationally when the United States carried out airstrikes on December 24–25, 2025, hitting ISIS-linked camps in northwest Nigeria at the request of the Nigerian government. While the strikes disrupted militant operations, analysts warn that without addressing governance failures, poverty, and local grievances, Nigeria’s insecurity is likely to persist and deepen in 2026.

Taiwan vs. China

Beyond active war zones, strategic flashpoints are also reshaping risk in the Global South. Rising tensions between China and Taiwan, while centred in East Asia, carry global consequences that will be felt acutely across developing economies. Any escalation would disrupt trade , shipping routes, and semiconductor supply chains, forcing many Global South countries, deeply tied to both Chinese and Western economic systems, to navigate difficult diplomatic and economic choices.

The Japanese government has announced a $13.8 million humanitarian aid package for Yemen, targeting urgent needs such as food security, healthcare, and essential services. The support comes as the country continues to face one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with millions affected by conflict, displacement, and malnutrition. Japan reaffirmed its commitment to working with international partners to ensure effective aid delivery and support Yemen’s long-term stability.

Intense political efforts aim to ease tensions in Eastern Yemen

Yemen is experiencing increased political engagemen t to ease tensions in its eastern provinces, where rival forces have competed for influence amid fragile security. President Rashad Al-Alimi emphasised that strengthening state institutions is the top priority, describing effective governance as key to stability and lasting peace. The efforts come as local and regional actors push dialogue to prevent escalation in Hadramout and Al-Mahra, where recent frictions have raised concerns over security and cohesion.

Yemen’s future after the STC’s eastward expansion

Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council (STC) is expanding its influence in the eastern governorates of Hadramout and al-Mahra, underscoring the fragmented nature of the country’s decade-long conflict. The advances highlight how power in Yemen now extends beyond the government–Houthi divide, with multiple de facto authorities competing over security and resources. Backed by a regional power, the STC has emerged as the dominant force in the south and parts of the east, even as the government struggles to assert unified control and the economy deteriorates. Against this backdrop, President Rashad al-Alimi described the reported suspension of IMF activities as a warning sign of the political and economic costs of escalating tensions in the east.

Al-Arada discusses latest developments with the U.S. ambassador

President Rashad Mohammed al-Alimi met with U.S. Ambassador Steven Fagin to discuss bilateral relations, recent developments in Yemen’s eastern governorates, and U.S. support for government reforms. The talks also covered counterterrorism cooperation and efforts to deter the Iran-backed Houthis. Al-Alimi praised strong U.S. support for Yemen, including the designation of the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation and backing for economic and political reform initiatives.

UN envoy urges de-escalation in Yemen’s eastern provinces

UN Special Envoy to Yemen Hans Grundberg has urged immediate de-escalation in the eastern provinces of Hadramout and Al-Mahra, citing concerns over rising instability and its potential impact on local communities and regional security. Speaking in Riyadh, he called on all parties to exercise restraint and engage in dialogue, stressing that stability in the east is essential to advancing Yemen’s broader peace process.

The UAE has announced a $1 billion commitment to strengthen Yemen’s fragile electricity infrastructure. The investment covers solar, wind, and oil-fired power plants, aiming to ease Yemen’s chronic energy shortages and bolster its wider economic recovery. This move aligns with the UAE’s expanding regional development initiatives, reinforcing its role as a key partner in Yemen’s stabilisation efforts.

UAE approves National Encryption Policy, issues executive regulation

The UAE has approved a landmark National Encryption Policy that will transition government entities toward post-quantum cryptography , preparing national digital infrastructure for the age of quantum computing. The Cybersecurity Council will oversee the policy’s rollout and ensure adherence to new encryption standards. This positions the UAE as an early adopter of advanced cybersecurity protocols at a global level.

Dubai to double media sector’s contribution to GDP by 2033

Dubai has set an ambitious objective to double its media sector’s GDP contribution from 1.4% to 3% within less than a decade. The strategy focuses on digital transformation, enhanced innovation ecosystems, and structured support for young media talent. The initiative aims to reinforce Dubai’s identity as a powerful global media hub amid rising content creation markets worldwide.

UAE Ministry launches TM Market Place to transform trademark trading

The Ministry of Economy and Tourism has launched TM Market Place, the UAE’s first fully digital platform dedicated to buying and trading trademarks. The marketplace is designed to modernise the UAE’s intellectual property landscape while attracting major global brands to the region. By expanding access to trademark trading, the platform seeks to strengthen the UAE’s competitiveness in global commerce.

Yemeni Prime Minister Salem bin Braik held high-level talks with ambassadors representing nations sponsoring Yemen’s political process, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the US, the UK and France. The meeting reviewed progress on ongoing reforms, with a strong focus on reviving Yemen’s economy, stabilising institutions, and supporting essential public services. Bin Braik underscored the government’s commitment to improving governance and strengthening state institutions amid the country’s fragile security environment. The international envoys reiterated their backing for Yemen’s reform path and pledged continued cooperation to restore stability.

Unity and reform efforts

Ambassadors from the nations overseeing Yemen's peace efforts issued a formal joint statement following discussions with the Yemeni prime minister. The coalition reaffirmed its support for Yemen’s political leadership and reform agenda, emphasising that political cohesion remains crucial to navigating the country’s ongoing challenges. The envoys praised steps taken by the government to rebuild institutions and protect public finances, signalling the international community’s expectation for accelerated progress toward reconciliation and peace.

Peace and security cooperation

Member of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council Sultan al-Arada met with the US ambassador to discuss issues spanning security, peace negotiations, and economic challenges. Al-Arada highlighted the urgent need for diplomatic support and financial stabilisation as Yemen confronts humanitarian hardship and ongoing tensions with Houthi forces. The US ambassador reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to Yemen’s political process and stressed the need to protect gains made in de-escalation efforts, encouraging further dialogue to prevent renewed conflict.

Internal divisions

The United States government has restated its full support for Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, even as internal differences persist among its members. Washington emphasised its continued backing for Yemen’s political transition and institution-strengthening efforts, warning that internal fragmentation risks undermining peacebuilding and state recovery. The statement underscores Washington’s role as a key external guarantor of Yemen’s political process at a time of renewed uncertainty and humanitarian strain.

Secretary-General’s detention

Yemen’s General People’s Congress (GPC) party has suspended all activities in Houthi-controlled regions after the continued detention of its Secretary-General Ghazi Al-Ahwal. The party accused the Houthi authorities of escalating violations and restricting political freedoms, calling the detention an attack on political plurality and national dialogue. The move signals heightened tensions between Yemen’s traditional political parties and the Houthis, adding a new layer of political friction to an already fragile national landscape.