Signed in 2010 and extended in 2021, New START capped the U.S. and Russian arsenals at 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads on 700 delivery systems, including intercontinental missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and heavy bombers. 

Despite the treaty, both nations maintain far larger stockpiles: Russia is estimated to have 5,459 nuclear warheads, while the U.S. has around 5,177. New START only applied to deployed strategic weapons, leaving much of the arsenals unrestricted.

For the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), the implication is clear: the treaty’s expiration could unleash a new wave of unchecked nuclear risk.

“Without it, the risk of nuclear use will likely increase due to a potential renewed arms race,” the organization said.

Why are there no new agreements?

New START had already been under strain for years. Inspections were suspended during the COVID-19 pandemic, and rising tensions over the Russian invasion of Ukraine led the U.S. to declare Russia in non-compliance in 2023. Russia then suspended its participation, rejecting inspections and data exchanges.

The treaty could have been replaced or extended, but no agreement has been reached. Russia suggested a one-year continuation of the limits, and U.S. President Donald Trump expressed interest in a broader deal including China — but nothing has been finalized.

ICAN emphasized that all nuclear-armed states remain legally obligated to pursue disarmament under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). The next NPT Review Conference is scheduled for April to May 2026 in New York.

“At times of high tension among nations, disarmament measures are all the more important,” ICAN said. “The dire international security environment at present, rather than serving as an excuse for inaction, must spur urgent action on disarmament.”

ICAN warned that with the treaty gone, “it is in no country’s interest to increase global nuclear arsenals. All nuclear-armed states should adhere to and implement existing international agreements on nuclear disarmament.”

The expiration of New START leaves the world at a critical juncture. Without enforceable limits on the U.S. and Russia, the risk of miscalculation, escalation, and a renewed nuclear arms race is rising.

According to a statement released by Cambodia’s defence ministry, both sides agreed to an immediate ceasefire effective from 12:00 p.m. local time (05:00 GMT) on December 27, 2025. The truce covers all types of weapons and prohibits attacks on civilians, civilian facilities and infrastructure, as well as military targets, across all affected areas.

The statement also said the two countries committed to maintaining their current troop positions, with no further movement by either side.

Tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border escalated earlier this month, leading to deadly clashes and mass displacement. Thailand reported that several soldiers and civilians were killed during evacuation efforts, while Cambodian authorities said at least 15 civilians were killed and 76 others injured. More than 422,000 people have been displaced by the violence , according to Cambodian figures.

The latest ceasefire follows a previous truce brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump , which was signed on October 26 after an earlier border crisis. Both governments later accused each other of violating that agreement, raising concerns about the fragility of efforts to restore lasting calm along the disputed border.

At the centre of the plan is Mission Firewall , designed to disrupt the illicit movement of weapons into Mexico. Officials announced stepped-up inspections, expanded use of the firearm tracing system known as eTrace, and the introduction of ballistic identification technology across all 32 Mexican states. Both governments also pledged to deepen intelligence sharing and strengthen investigations and prosecutions linked to arms trafficking.

The US State Department described the agreement as an “unprecedented” level of cooperation. Washington confirmed it has created a secure platform for real-time information exchange on suspicious air cargo and packages, a tool that will allow authorities to track not only firearms but also drugs, precursor chemicals and illicit fuels. Mexico, meanwhile, noted that US authorities have already opened more than 125 firearms trafficking cases since Donald Trump returned to the presidency, leading to seizures and the dismantling of suspected networks.

The political backdrop remains contentious. Mexico has long argued that US-sourced weapons fuel violence within its borders, while Trump has repeatedly accused Mexican authorities of failing to confront powerful drug cartels. Speaking in Sinaloa, President Claudia Sheinbaum hailed the new agreement as a turning point: “For the first time, the priority issue discussed is the weapons flowing from the United States into Mexico. We achieved an agreement that the US will strengthen operations on its own soil to control the flow of arms.” She added that sovereignty would never be up for negotiation.

The agreement builds on US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s recent visit to Mexico City, where he met with Sheinbaum to reinforce bilateral security cooperation. Both governments presented the plan as a rare moment of alignment in the fight against organised crime , even as disputes over responsibility and strategy continue to loom in the background.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney hailed the pact as “game-changing,” stressing its role in securing investment in critical minerals, clean technology, and financial services. In 2024, merchandise trade between the two countries totalled US$5.6 billion, with Canadian exports reaching US$2.3 billion, making Indonesia Canada’s largest export market in Southeast Asia (Government of Canada trade data).

The deal comes alongside a new defence cooperation agreement covering maritime security, cyber defence, and peacekeeping, a move Carney called a “critical step” in Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy.

Canada is also backing Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund, with Export Development Canada pledging up to CAD$825 million (US$594 million) in financing for infrastructure, renewable energy , and agriculture projects.

The agreement positions Canada as a deeper player in Asia’s economic networks, while Indonesia, projected by PwC to be among the world’s five largest economies by 2050, gains a powerful Western partner beyond Washington.

The Chadian government has finalised an agreement with the Comité Diffa Al-Watan de Miski, a group representing local interests in the Miski region. This deal is seen as a significant step toward stabilising the resource-rich area, which has faced tensions over mining rights and local autonomy. Analysts suggest that the agreement could bring greater government oversight to artisanal gold mining operations, while also addressing long-standing community grievances about marginalisation and environmental degradation.

Weapons cache displayed in Goz-Beïda

Authorities in the Sila region showcased a large cache of war weapons to the press in Goz-Beïda. The arms, reportedly seized during recent security operations, are believed to have originated from cross-border smuggling networks operating near Sudan. The public display underscores Chad’s ongoing security challenges in its eastern regions, where porous borders have allowed weapons trafficking to fuel instability and armed group activity.

New coordination committee for women’s economic empowerment

In an important development for gender equality, Chad has launched a national coordination committee aimed at strengthening women’s economic empowerment. The initiative seeks to harmonise efforts across government ministries, NGOs, and international partners to expand women’s access to credit, training, and entrepreneurship opportunities. Observers see this as aligning with Chad’s broader goals under the African Union’s Agenda 2063 to boost inclusive growth and women’s participation in the economy.

Agreement with Miski stakeholders seen as conflict prevention

Political commentators are highlighting the Miski agreement as more than just a local settlement, framing it as a tool for conflict prevention in a historically restive region. By formalising cooperation with local committees, the government hopes to integrate community leaders into national governance structures, thereby reducing the likelihood of violent flare-ups over land and mining disputes.

Sila Region Security Crackdown Highlights Regional Risks

The recent weapons seizure in Sila also illustrates the fragile security environment in Chad’s borderlands. Experts warn that instability in neighbouring Sudan and the presence of transnational armed groups pose risks that require sustained government vigilance. The crackdown is part of a broader campaign to secure Chad’s borders ahead of upcoming local elections, ensuring that political processes are not disrupted by violence.