Correlation is not causation, and the report is clear about that. But drawing on 15 years of research, it concludes that climate change is making conflict more likely - not as a sole cause, but as a force that intensifies existing pressures such as poverty, weak governance , and competition over land and water.

Few people have explored this relationship as closely as Peter Schwartzstein, author of The Heat and the Fury: On the Frontlines of Climate Violence . After more than a decade reporting from over 30 countries, he argues that climate change is deeply embedded in modern conflict, even when it is not immediately visible. As he puts it: “We are not adequately taking into account how climate change is acting on other drivers of instability, like corruption and inequality and state mismanagement. And as a consequence, I think we are systematically underestimating the sheer volume of violence that has at least some kind of climate and environment component.”

Climate amplification

The European Commission identifies Iraq and the wider Middle East as regions where these risks are particularly acute. Schwartzstein spent three years in Iraq, conducting hundreds of interviews to understand how environmental stress can evolve into outright conflict. His reporting suggests that climate change often acts as an accelerant. “Perhaps the simplest way to think about climate’s contribution to violence,” he explains, “is that climate is amplifying whatever a society’s existing weaknesses are.”

In Syria, for example, a prolonged drought in the years leading up to 2011 placed immense strain on already fragile rural communities. Farmers described how worsening conditions eroded their tolerance for corruption and state neglect. As Schwartzstein recounts, “The very fact that they were facing demands for bribes at a time when their agricultural fortunes were just worsening and worsening was just a proverbial bridge too far.” In the hardest hit areas, resentment deepened, creating fertile ground for extremist recruitment. “The more drought-battered an area… the greater ISIS recruiters’ capacity to bring people into their ranks,” he says, adding: “Think of climate as a force that’s just seizing upon whatever the existing troubles are and running with it.”

In Iraq, these dynamics became even more complex. Schwartzstein found that ISIS recruiters learned to exploit not just poverty, but perceptions of inequality. Villages on the outskirts of Mosul - close enough to see the city’s relative prosperity - experienced some of the highest recruitment rates. “The very fact that they were on the doorstep of the city… meant that expansion in relative inequality was just an extremely useful recruiting lever,” he explains. Recruiters also manipulated environmental hardship for political ends, framing drought as a deliberate act by the government. “On a certain level it didn’t really matter whether local people believed this narrative… they were happy to seize upon it because it suited their priors.”

While much of the focus is on fragile states, Schwartzstein warns against viewing climate-driven instability as a distant problem. Its effects are already visible in wealthier countries. “If we look in the US, violence against women almost always spikes very aggressively in the aftermath of hurricanes,” he notes, with shelters overwhelmed in their aftermath. In Europe, rising temperatures are also linked to increased aggression. “Aggressive behaviour… is significantly more intense in summer months,” he says, pointing to physiological responses to extreme heat. Making these connections visible, he argues, helps bring the issue closer to home: “We’re that bit more likely to convey what’s going on… when describing [it] in ways that the average person… can understand.”

Political capital

Climate stress can also reshape politics. As livelihoods and landscapes change, uncertainty and anxiety create opportunities for more extreme narratives. “Populist movements are beneficiaries of climate stresses in quite a few ways,” Schwartzstein explains. Economic pressures such as inflation, combined with a broader sense of disruption, can drive shifts in voting behaviour. “Climate change contributes to… a sort of devil-may-care attitude… a shock among so many people who… notice that so much of what they love and care about is changing.” In that atmosphere, he argues, populist leaders gain traction by offering simple explanations and clear scapegoats: “That climate of shock and confusion… is the sort of political ambiance that populists tend to make hay from.”

Yet climate is not only a driver of conflict - it is also a casualty of it. In times of crisis, environmental concerns are often pushed aside as governments and populations focus on immediate survival. Schwartzstein points to Iran as a current example, where escalating tensions risk sidelining urgent climate challenges. “This is just more months - at best - in which these fast-intensifying climate shocks will be left to fester,” he warns. While acknowledging the severity of ongoing conflicts, he adds that from a global perspective, such distractions come at a high cost: “This is just the kind of… shenanigans… that we absolutely cannot afford at this time.”

World Reframed episode 36. More episodes of World Reframed.

World Reframed is produced in London by Global South World, part of the Impactum Group. Its editors are Duncan Hooper and Ismail Akwei.

ISSN 2978-4891

Nevertheless, reports in the US suggest that Russia is using its satellite and intelligence capabilities to keep its ally up to date on US and Israeli movements.

Donald Trump has brushed off questions about the cooperation, saying he is dealing with bigger problems. Amid a surge in global energy prices caused by the conflict, the US has also temporarily suspended its demands that India should refrain from buying Russian oil.

This gives Russia an interest in ensuring Iran can continue to disrupt neighbouring supply routes, according to security consultancy Eigenrac .

“We assess it as likely that Russia may continue providing Iran with intelligence or targeting support on US and allied assets in the region. Beyond strategic alignment against the United States , Moscow also has an economic incentive to sustain pressure on Gulf energy routes. Prolonged disruption or effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz would tighten global supply and could extend preferential arrangements such as India’s current 30-day window to purchase discounted Russian oil,” Eigenrac said in a briefing.

However, the analysts noted that with large investments and an expatriate community in the UAE, Russia may choose to discourage Iran from targeting cities there.

Given the desperation of the Iranian government in its fight for survival, “the impact of such dissuasion may be comparatively low, however,” Eigenrac noted.

Washington hopes to use Kurdish fighters based along the western border with Iraq as a proxy force to support opposition movements to overthrow the Islamic ruling structures.

With this in mind, US and Israeli attacks have targeted police stations and border infrastructure. However, the Kurds are traditionally lightly armed and would lack the firepower to take on the Iranian army without support from foreign militaries. Additionally, their geographic presence is limited, so other ethnic groups would need to be involved to achieve national impact.

But step back for a moment. What is unfolding now is not simply another Middle Eastern crisis. It is a moment of strategic realignment - one that many observers miss because they interpret events through narrow political loyalties or ideological reflexes.

Recent strikes and retaliatory attacks have transformed what was once largely a shadow conflict into open confrontation, reshaping the region’s security landscape and potentially altering global power dynamics.

Seen from a broader perspective, at least six geopolitical lessons are emerging.

1) Iran’s restraint reveals its limits

Iran has launched strikes across much of the Gulf region in retaliation for attacks on its territory and military infrastructure.

Yet the pattern of targets is telling. Tehran has struck several states hosting American military facilities, but it has avoided two particularly sensitive neighbours: Turkey and Azerbaijan.

This restraint is not accidental. Turkey is a member of NATO, and any direct attack on its territory could potentially trigger Article 5, the alliance’s collective defence clause. Such a move would dramatically widen the conflict and place Iran in direct confrontation with the world’s most powerful military alliance.

Azerbaijan presents a different risk. Iran hosts a large ethnic Azerbaijani population, estimated to exceed the population of Azerbaijan itself. A military strike could inflame separatist tensions inside Iran while also jeopardising a key regional transit corridor.

In other words, Iran’s selective targeting reflects strategic constraint rather than confidence.

2) Hezbollah’s autonomy is shrinking

Another shift concerns Iran’s network of regional proxies.

For decades, Tehran projected influence indirectly through organisations such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen. This system allowed Iran to challenge adversaries while avoiding direct confrontation.

However, recent developments suggest tighter Iranian control over these groups. At the same time, Israel appears increasingly determined to dismantle that network entirely.

If successful, this would mark a structural change in the region’s balance of power, weakening one of Iran’s most important instruments of influence.

3) A quiet Arab–Israeli alignment is emerging

Perhaps the most striking consequence of Iran’s actions is the reaction of several Arab states.

Historically, many Gulf governments avoided overt security cooperation with Israel. Yet the perception of a growing Iranian threat has pushed some of them closer to Israel in practice, if not always formally.

In effect, a de facto security alignment appears to be forming between Israel and several Arab states that share a common concern about Iran’s regional ambitions. Analysts have already noted that the conflict is accelerating the emergence of a new regional security architecture centred on US-aligned powers.

This shift would have been difficult to imagine only a decade ago.

4) Moscow's interests exposed

Another widely discussed narrative is the supposed strategic axis linking Russia and Iran.

In reality, the relationship has always been more limited than often portrayed. Moscow may condemn Western military actions against Tehran, but its willingness to intervene directly remains uncertain. ( AP News )

Russia’s strategic interests do not perfectly align with Iran’s. While both countries oppose American influence, their regional priorities differ, and Moscow maintains pragmatic relations with Israel as well.

The current crisis highlights the limits of that partnership.

5) Ukraine ’s battlefield experience is becoming valuable

One unexpected geopolitical development lies far from the Middle East.

After years of large-scale warfare, Ukraine has become one of the most experienced militaries in the world in areas such as drone warfare and missile interception.

As unmanned systems proliferate across the Middle East, this expertise is becoming increasingly relevant. Countries with sophisticated air defence systems often discover that technology alone is not enough. Operational experience matters.

Ukraine’s battlefield knowledge may therefore become an exportable strategic asset.

6) The deeper contest is about China

Finally, the most consequential lesson may have little to do with Iran itself.

Look at the broader pattern of American strategy: pressure on Iran, sanctions on Venezuela, and growing competition across energy markets and maritime chokepoints.

The Strait of Hormuz alone carries roughly one fifth of global oil supply, making it one of the most critical energy corridors in the world.

Many of the economies most dependent on this flow are in Asia , particularly China. Any disruption to Gulf energy exports therefore carries profound implications for Beijing’s economic security.

Viewed through this lens, pressure on Iran is not only about nuclear weapons or regional security. It may also form part of a broader geo-economic competition with China.

A preview of a new geopolitical era

The irony, however, is that such pressure carries risks for Washington as well. Sharp increases in oil prices would affect the global economy, including American consumers.

Managing this balance requires careful calibration.

Yet one conclusion already seems clear. The current confrontation is not simply another regional conflict.

It may represent the early phase of a wider geopolitical shift - one that redraws Middle Eastern alliances, tests Russia’s strategic credibility, elevates Ukraine’s military expertise and forms part of a long-term strategic competition between the United States and China.

Seen from that perspective, the crisis unfolding today is less about a single war than about the shape of the next international order.

This article is based on an interview with Dov Zerah , Viatcheslav Avioutskii et Jean-Pierre Favennec in Atlantico.fr .

The initiative, first linked to post-ceasefire governance discussions around Gaza, has expanded into a broader proposal for a new international body aimed at conflict resolution and reconstruction.

Trump’s team describes it as a platform to promote stability and long-term peace. Critics argue it risks bypassing existing multilateral institutions, particularly the United Nations .

Countries invited and early acceptances

According to officials familiar with the process, invitations have been sent to dozens of governments across Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the Americas.

A limited number of countries have confirmed acceptance. Argentina’s president, Javier Milei, publicly welcomed the invitation, describing it as an opportunity for closer diplomatic cooperation. Hungary has also confirmed participation , with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán signalling support for Trump’s approach to peace negotiations. Vietnam has likewise accepted, with its leadership confirming involvement through diplomatic channels.

Several other countries, including India, Australia, Pakistan, Egypt , Turkey, Jordan, Greece, Cyprus, Canada, and Albania, have acknowledged receiving invitations but have not formally committed.

Rejections and reluctance from major powers

Some governments have already drawn clear lines. France has indicated it does not intend to join at this stage, citing concerns about the board’s purpose and structure. Brazil has also taken a cautious stance, with officials questioning whether the initiative complements or competes with existing international frameworks.

Canada’s position has been more nuanced. While Ottawa has not ruled out participation, officials have pushed back on reports that membership could involve large financial contributions, stressing that any involvement would need to align with Canada’s diplomatic priorities.

Other major powers, including the United Kingdom and Germany, are reported to be in internal discussions but have yet to make public commitments.

The proposal has generated additional controversy following reports that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin received an invitation . The Kremlin confirmed it was reviewing the offer, a move that has unsettled European diplomats, given Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.

According to briefings from U.S. officials and reporting by international media, the Board of Peace is intended to:

Some reports suggest membership could involve fixed-term participation or long-term seats tied to significant financial contributions, a feature that has drawn criticism from several governments.

Build Up Nepal has won the 2026 Zayed Sustainability Prize in the Climate Action category, earning international recognition for its low-carbon, earthquake-resilient eco-bricks. The organisation has helped build thousands of affordable homes, cut construction emissions significantly, and create green jobs through locally run enterprises. The award highlights Nepal’s growing role in delivering practical, community-led climate solutions at a time of increasing global focus on resilience and sustainable development.

Nepali Congress grapples with internal conflict ahead of a special convention

The Nepali Congress is facing intensified internal conflict as preparations move forward for a special convention. Disagreements within the party have exposed deep divisions over leadership direction, organisational control and the future of the party, raising questions about cohesion at a critical political moment.

Expulsion of general secretaries deepens divisions and risks party fragmentation

The expulsion of key general secretaries has significantly deepened rifts within the Nepali Congress, accelerating fears of a formal split. The move has heightened tensions between rival factions and sharpened debate over disciplinary authority and internal democracy within one of Nepal’s most influential political parties.

Leadership reform proposals and election strategy fuel internal debate

Proposals aimed at reforming party leadership structures and redefining election strategy have become central to internal discussions. Supporters argue the changes are necessary to restore public trust and electoral competitiveness, while critics warn they could further destabilise the party if not carefully managed.

Negotiations continue in an effort to preserve party unity

Negotiations are ongoing among senior party figures to prevent a full-scale split and preserve unity within the Nepali Congress. Talks are focused on reconciliation mechanisms, power-sharing arrangements and compromise solutions that could allow the party to move forward ahead of future electoral contests.

Sudan’s humanitarian emergency has worsened significantly as insecurity across Kordofan triggers large-scale civilian displacement. According to the briefing, escalating violence has forced families to flee their homes in search of safety, placing immense strain on already overstretched local communities and aid networks. Kordofan, long a flashpoint in Sudan’s conflicts, has seen renewed fighting disrupt livelihoods, agriculture, and access to basic services. The displacement adds to Sudan’s broader crisis, with millions already internally displaced since the outbreak of war, raising alarm among humanitarian agencies over shelter shortages, food insecurity, and the risk of disease outbreaks.

Disinformation becomes a strategic weapon in the conflict

The briefing highlights the growing use of disinformation as a deliberate tool of war in Sudan. Competing narratives, fabricated reports, and manipulated media are being deployed to confuse civilians, undermine trust, and shape both domestic and international perceptions of the conflict. Analysts warn that this information warfare complicates humanitarian access and peace efforts, as false claims can inflame tensions, justify attacks, or obscure responsibility for abuses. The spread of disinformation also poses risks beyond Sudan’s borders, influencing diplomatic engagement and international responses to the crisis.

SAF air raids intensify civilian suffering

Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) air raids have intensified , contributing to rising civilian casualties and widespread destruction. The briefing notes that aerial bombardments are deepening the humanitarian toll, with markets, residential areas, and vital infrastructure increasingly at risk. Such attacks exacerbate displacement and fuel accusations of violations of international humanitarian law. Human rights groups have repeatedly warned that the use of air power in densely populated areas is accelerating civilian harm and undermining prospects for de-escalation.

RSF claims territorial gains as fighting escalates

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have claimed new territorial gains amid the escalating conflict, signalling shifting dynamics on the battlefield. These claims suggest ongoing offensives and counteroffensives that are reshaping control across contested regions. While independent verification remains difficult due to access constraints and information warfare, the reported advances underline the fluid and volatile nature of the conflict, with civilians often caught between rival forces and changing frontlines.

International pressure mounts for a humanitarian truce

Amid the intensifying violence, international efforts to secure a humanitarian truce in Sudan are gaining momentum. The briefing points to renewed diplomatic engagement aimed at pausing hostilities to allow aid delivery and civilian protection. Regional actors and global partners are pressing both SAF and RSF to agree to temporary ceasefires, warning that failure to do so risks further catastrophe. These initiatives reflect growing global concern that Sudan’s war, if left unchecked, could destabilise the wider region and deepen one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises

Saudi Arabia has been involved in Yemen’s conflict since 2015. The kingdom views Yemen as essential to its national security due to its shared border and proximity to key shipping routes. Riyadh also aims to block the influence of Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

Saudi Arabia supports Yemen’s internationally recognised government , now based in the south after losing the capital, Sanaa, to the Houthis.

The Southern Transitional Council (STC), on the other hand, is a UAE-backed group that seeks independence for southern Yemen, which existed as a separate state before unification in 1990.

Although Saudi Arabia and the UAE began as allies in the fight against the Houthis, their goals have since diverged. Riyadh supports a unified Yemeni state, while Abu Dhabi prefers to back local actors in the south to safeguard its interests in ports, trade routes, and regional influence.

Yemen is now divided between Iran-backed Houthis, UAE-backed separatists, and the Saudi-backed government. The conflict has evolved into a multi-sided power struggle.

The involvement of the United States and Israel has added to the complexity. The US has supported Saudi operations with weapons and intelligence, while Red Sea shipping disruptions and regional tensions have drawn Israel into the broader conflict.

These territorial changes carry regional weight. The Houthis’ close links with Iran remain a central concern for Saudi Arabia and its Gulf partners, who see Yemen as part of a wider strategic contest. Since the conflict intensified in 2014, tens of thousands have been killed, and nearly half of the population now relies on humanitarian aid, according to the International Crisis Group.

Despite backing from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, the government has struggled to consolidate power, weakened by internal divisions and rival southern factions pushing for greater autonomy. The result is a fragmented political landscape that complicates efforts to end the war and stabilise the country.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, located just southwest of the Houthi-controlled areas, remains a flashpoint. The U.S. and allied navies have recently increased patrols to keep commercial traffic flowing after a spike in attacks on tankers and cargo ships initiated by Saudi Arabia last week.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia and Iran have signalled interest in diplomacy, including mediated talks in recent months. Still, scepticism persists on whether any agreement can withstand deep distrust built over years of proxy conflict.

For Yemen’s civilians, the fractured map above means continued uncertainty. Aid groups warn that disruptions in access to food, medicine and basic services remain severe. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimates that more than 17 million people are in need of urgent assistance.

But why does this specific island, separated from the Chinese mainland by the 130-kilometer-wide Taiwan Strait, command such an outsized influence on the global stage? To understand the gravity of the situation, we have to look at Taiwan through four distinct lenses: history, geography, economy, and technology.

A geographic and economic crossroads

Positioned at the edge of the southeastern coast of China and bordering the South China Sea, Taiwan sits at the heart of some of the busiest shipping lanes in the world. This strategic location makes it an essential hub for global trade.

Despite its compact size of roughly 36,000 square kilometers, Taiwan is home to 23 million people—a population density comparable to Florida or Australia, but packed into a much smaller area. This high density has fueled an economic powerhouse; Taiwan currently ranks among the top 20 economies in the world by nominal GDP, outpacing nations like Switzerland and Sweden. With living standards comparable to Western Europe , it is a high-income economy that "punches well above its weight."

Perhaps the most critical reason for Taiwan’s global importance today is its role in the advanced semiconductor industry. Taiwan is the world's primary producer of the high-end computer chips that power everything from smartphones and electric cars to massive data centres and sophisticated military systems.

One company in particular, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), produces chips so advanced that many of the world’s leading tech firms simply could not function without them. This "silicon shield" makes Taiwan indispensable to the modern global economy , creating a situation where any disruption to the island has immediate, catastrophic effects on technology sectors worldwide.

The view from China

While its economic and technological contributions are undeniable, the question remains: why is Taiwan so central to China’s national identity and long-term strategy?

To understand the issue, you need to understand the history. Taiwan was occupied by the Japanese as they expanded westwards at the end of the 19th century. Internal turmoil in China allowed the Japanese to expand their empire prior to and during the Second World War. The island was returned to Beijing on its defeat, but to a nationalist government engaged in a bitter civil war with its communist rival. The conclusion of that conflict saw the communists victorious but the nationalists took refuge on the island of Taiwan, with both sides claiming to be the legitimate rulers of a united China.

Initially the United Nations backed Taipei but soon switched to acknowledging the Communist Party of China as the single entity able to represent the country. Almost every other country in the world followed suit, acknowledging the One China Principle in order to establish diplomatic relations with the world's most populous nation. China focused much of its foreign policy on this goal, offering incentives to states and organisations which came on board.

In Taipei, meanwhile, where a multi-party democracy had formed, the policy has largely been to keep quiet and profit from the status quo, neither renouncing, nor demanding an independent status.

Re-enter Japan

A possibly off-the-cuff statement from Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi that her country might be forced to intervene militarily if China acted on its long-stated reunification demand caused consternation in Beijing.

Not only has Japan's military been strictly reserved for self-defence purposes, but the scars of its soldiers' behaviour in China still run deep and raw.

Takaichi declared that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which has never been ruled out, could constitute a threat to Japan. China views any action across the Taiwan Strait as a domestic matter on which international powers should have strictly no say.

The fallout has had huge economic consequences for Japanese businesses, given the size of the Chinese market. But it also risks having longer term strategic consequences, with America announcing more than $10billion of new arms sales to Taiwan.

Looking forward

While insisting its goal is peaceful reunification, Beijing has been careful to keep its options open regarding its approach to Taiwan. It has avoided any timeframes but responded angrily to any dissent to its world view from Taipei. The prospect of a conflict which could see the world's two superpowers confronting each other for the first time in decades is one which strikes fear into politicians, businesses and hundreds of millions of ordinary people.

Click here to watch our previous episodes

World Reframed is produced in London by Global South World, part of the Impactum Group. Its editors are Duncan Hooper and Ismail Akwei.

ISSN 2978-4891

The Japanese government has announced a $13.8 million humanitarian aid package for Yemen, targeting urgent needs such as food security, healthcare, and essential services. The support comes as the country continues to face one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with millions affected by conflict, displacement, and malnutrition. Japan reaffirmed its commitment to working with international partners to ensure effective aid delivery and support Yemen’s long-term stability.

Intense political efforts aim to ease tensions in Eastern Yemen

Yemen is experiencing increased political engagemen t to ease tensions in its eastern provinces, where rival forces have competed for influence amid fragile security. President Rashad Al-Alimi emphasised that strengthening state institutions is the top priority, describing effective governance as key to stability and lasting peace. The efforts come as local and regional actors push dialogue to prevent escalation in Hadramout and Al-Mahra, where recent frictions have raised concerns over security and cohesion.

Yemen’s future after the STC’s eastward expansion

Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council (STC) is expanding its influence in the eastern governorates of Hadramout and al-Mahra, underscoring the fragmented nature of the country’s decade-long conflict. The advances highlight how power in Yemen now extends beyond the government–Houthi divide, with multiple de facto authorities competing over security and resources. Backed by a regional power, the STC has emerged as the dominant force in the south and parts of the east, even as the government struggles to assert unified control and the economy deteriorates. Against this backdrop, President Rashad al-Alimi described the reported suspension of IMF activities as a warning sign of the political and economic costs of escalating tensions in the east.

Al-Arada discusses latest developments with the U.S. ambassador

President Rashad Mohammed al-Alimi met with U.S. Ambassador Steven Fagin to discuss bilateral relations, recent developments in Yemen’s eastern governorates, and U.S. support for government reforms. The talks also covered counterterrorism cooperation and efforts to deter the Iran-backed Houthis. Al-Alimi praised strong U.S. support for Yemen, including the designation of the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation and backing for economic and political reform initiatives.

UN envoy urges de-escalation in Yemen’s eastern provinces

UN Special Envoy to Yemen Hans Grundberg has urged immediate de-escalation in the eastern provinces of Hadramout and Al-Mahra, citing concerns over rising instability and its potential impact on local communities and regional security. Speaking in Riyadh, he called on all parties to exercise restraint and engage in dialogue, stressing that stability in the east is essential to advancing Yemen’s broader peace process.

Ethiopia’s renewed push for access to the Red Sea is sharply escalating tensions with neighbouring Eritrea, with both governments exchanging accusations of military provocations along the border. The briefing warns that “whatever the outcome, war will devastate,” underscoring fears that any miscalculation could trigger conflict reminiscent of past hostilities. The standoff now threatens regional stability, raising concerns among analysts, diplomats, and humanitarian agencies who note that both countries remain deeply sensitive to territorial and security disputes. The dispute is unfolding at a delicate moment for the Horn of Africa, where shifting alliances and competing port access negotiations are increasing geopolitical pressure.

Ethiopia steps up fundamental institutional and legal reforms

The government is advancing far-reaching institutional and legal reforms aimed at strengthening the justice sector and improving governance . According to the briefing, Ethiopia is “implementing reforms to strengthen justice institutions,” changes that could significantly shape internal political dynamics as well as its relationships with regional neighbours, including Eritrea. These reforms, which appear in both the Eritrea and Ethiopia political briefing sections, are described as essential for Ethiopia’s long-term economic development and its aspirations for deeper regional integration. The restructuring of judicial and legal frameworks is also being closely watched as Ethiopia navigates internal fragmentation and post-conflict reconstruction.

National Dialogue Commission intensifies calls for civic and religious involvement

Amid ongoing political fragmentation, the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission is urging civic, community, and religious organisations to expand their involvement in helping resolve the country’s mounting challenges . The briefing links this appeal to broader concerns about Ethiopia’s political and economic future, noting that “Ethiopia’s political fragmentation is seen as a major economic bottleneck,” and emphasising that the National Dialogue is a “critical step toward reconciliation.” The Commission warns that sustainable peace will require inclusive participation beyond federal and regional elites, particularly from groups that hold significant moral authority among the population. The success of the national dialogue is increasingly seen as pivotal to preventing renewed conflict and unlocking stalled economic recovery efforts.

Ethiopia’s continental influence highlighted as GERD is hailed as a symbol of unity

Ethiopia’s strategic role within Africa is being elevated on multiple fronts. The CEO of the East Africa Law Society has underscored that Ethiopia remains “central to Africa’s transformation,” pointing to the completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as a powerful symbol of national self-reliance and unity. The commentary emphasises that Ethiopia’s internal stability and institutional strength will directly shape regional progress, particularly in areas of infrastructure, energy, and economic integration. This recognition comes as Ethiopia also assumes a leadership role within the UN-ECA Committee on Social Policy, Poverty, and Gender, alongside Eswatini and other African states—a sign of its enduring diplomatic influence despite domestic challenges.

Eyewitness Mohammed Abu Khamis described the situation as incompatible with the ongoing truce. “This isn't a ceasefire. It's nothing but a pure deception; there's an airstrike every five minutes,” he said. “This truce is worthless; whether we observe it or not makes no difference.”

Local media reported five deaths and multiple injuries. The Israeli military had not issued an official statement at the time of publication.

The Gaza Health Ministry also says 318 Palestinians have been killed since the truce began last month.

The sea of green across the map above represents Sunni Muslims, the largest branch of Islam, stretching from Egypt and Saudi Arabia through to Turkey and Jordan.

The darker shades, the Shia Muslim heartlands, mark Iran, southern Iraq, and parts of Lebanon and Yemen. Scattered among them are smaller but deeply rooted communities: Christians in Lebanon and Egypt, Jews in Israel , Druze in Syria and northern Israel, Yazidis in Iraq, and Ibadis in Oman.

According to the Pew Research Centre , Muslims make up more than 90% of the population across most of the Middle East and North Africa, but the balance between Sunni and Shia populations continues to shape politics and alliances.

The Council on Foreign Relations notes that the Sunni–Shia split lies at the heart of many of the region’s biggest conflicts, from Syria’s civil war to power struggles in Iraq and tensions between Iran and Gulf Arab states.

Today, those divisions are once again in the global spotlight. As conflict flares in Gaza and regional powers like Iran and Saudi Arabia navigate a fragile détente, the lines of faith drawn across this map help explain the alliances forming and breaking behind the scenes.

But it’s not all division. In places like Lebanon, Egypt, and Jordan, multi-faith societies continue to blend cultures, languages, and traditions that have survived thousands of years of change. The presence of smaller groups like the Druze and Yazidis shows how deeply layered the region’s identity remains, resilient despite war and displacement.

AU Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat has strongly condemned the recent wave of violence in Al-Fashar, urging both sides to stop fighting and open corridors for humanitarian aid.

But on the ground, the situation is heartbreaking. The UN says civilians are enduring unimaginable suffering, from mass killings and sexual violence to starvation and forced disappearances under the Rapid Support Forces’ siege.

Tensions are also rising internationally. At an emergency UN Security Council meeting in New York , Sudan accused the United Arab Emirates of secretly funding and arming the RSF. The UAE rejected the claim, instead blaming Sudan’s army for stalling peace efforts.

Both the AU and UN now face growing frustration over slow progress. While AU mediators work to revive peace talks, the UN continues to push for access to deliver aid and hold perpetrators accountable.

For millions of Sudanese people trapped in this nightmare, hope feels distant. Observers warn that the coming days could reveal whether the AU and UN can still make a difference, or if they’ll once again stand by as another humanitarian disaster unfolds.

The Pew Research Centre also reports that the Middle East’s migrant population more than doubled between 2005 and 2015, increasing from 7% to 13% of the total regional population. Labour migration, mainly from South Asia, is a key factor in this rise.

In the Gulf states, including Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, foreign nationals make up the majority of the population. Indians remain the largest group in Kuwait and across much of the Gulf, forming a large part of the workforce .

Conflict continues to drive migration within the region. Millions of Syrians have fled to countries such as Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey since 2011, and Iraqi and Sudanese migrants have also moved across borders seeking safety and stability.

In Europe, governments are debating the future of refugee policies , with new discussions over whether Syrian refugees should begin returning home.

At the same time, migrant arrivals in southern Europe continue to rise, showing the ongoing link between Middle Eastern migration and global movements.

The Chinese authorities describe such patrols as environmental protection efforts in a newly designated marine reserve. But under international law, the shoal lies within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.

The South China Sea has become the stage for one of the world’s most dangerous geopolitical games. Rival states - chiefly China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan - are scrambling to occupy reefs, rocks, and islands in a maritime version of Monopoly. Each new outpost, real or artificial, strengthens territorial claims to surrounding waters rich in fish, oil, and gas.

The Great Wall of Sand

Among the boldest tactics is China’s creation of man-made islands, a project so vast it’s been dubbed the Great Wall of Sand . Using dredging vessels like the enormous  Tian Kun Hao , known as the “Island Maker,” sand is sucked from the seabed and poured over reefs until they rise above the waves. Concrete walls are then added to prevent erosion.

The environmental toll is immense. Dredging destroys coral reefs and marine habitats, clouds the water with sediment that blocks sunlight, and alters ocean currents,  potentially influencing the paths of future storms and typhoons.

One striking example is Fiery Cross Reef, a remote speck in the sea roughly equidistant from Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Once a shallow reef, it is now home to a full-scale Chinese military base, complete with a long runway, hangars, housing blocks, and even sports facilities. From this isolated fortress, Beijing projects power across the region.

Other countries have also manned remote outposts to stake their own claims - the Philippines even grounded a World War II ship onto a reef more than two decades ago and has kept it manned with a permanent garrison since.

The motivation is clear. Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), coastal nations can claim an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) extending 200 nautical miles from their shores, granting rights to fish, oil, and minerals. But artificial islands do not qualify.

Lines on the map

In 2013, the Philippines turned to the United Nations to challenge China's sweeping claims off its shoreline. And won a comprehensive victory three years later. A UN tribunal ruled that the islands upon which Beijing based its claim were not naturally sufficient to sustain inhabitation and therefore not entitled to their own EEZ. China dismissed the verdict as “null and void.”

China continues to assert sovereignty over nearly 90% of the South China Sea, marked by its so-called Nine-Dash Line , a sweeping loop that intrudes into the EEZs of several neighbouring states. Taiwan , formally the Republic of China, maintains a similar claim with eleven dashes based on historical maps and trading routes.

The global stakes

The South China Sea isn’t just a regional flashpoint. It’s one of the busiest maritime corridors on Earth, carrying up to a third of global shipping. And conflicts are frequent, if mainly low-level.

The US is taking a close interest and NATO has also looked at its own role in the region. There's no sign of a resolution and plenty of reason to predict further tensions.

[Editor's note: The most common English names of locations have been used in this article for convenience and do no imply advocacy for any territorial claims on the part of Global South World]

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World Reframed is produced in London by  Global South  World, part of the Impactum Group. Its editors are Duncan Hooper and Ismail Akwei.

ISSN 2978-4891

With schools and universities shut down, frustration is spreading across the country. Businesses are struggling, and many people are finding it harder to move around or access basic services.

Outside the capital, things are even worse. Clashes between Malian forces and terrorist groups in rural and border areas have forced people from their homes, cut off supply routes, and made it difficult for aid to reach those in need.

The situation has grown so unstable that the United States has issued an urgent security alert, telling all American citizens to leave Mali immediately.

On October 28, the U.S. Embassy in Bamako issued a security alert that reflects the growing danger on the ground. The message urges Americans to leave the country as soon as possible, using commercial flights while they are still available. Roads leading out of Mali are considered too dangerous, with frequent attacks and armed ambushes reported along major highways.

For those who choose to stay, the Embassy advises preparing for emergencies, stocking up on supplies, keeping communication devices ready, and staying out of public view. It also warns that U.S. officials have limited ability to help citizens outside the capital because of the ongoing conflict and travel risks.

“The international airport in Bamako remains open and flights are available,” the alert states. “U.S. citizens should depart using commercial aviation, as overland routes to neighbouring countries may not be safe for travel.”

According to current data , Israel is recognised by around 163 of the 192 United Nations member states, roughly 83% of UN members.

Recognition of Israel has grown steadily since its founding in 1948. With the UN admission in 1949, many states established full diplomatic ties early on. However, 30-odd countries still formally do not recognise Israel, most of them Muslim-majority nations in Africa and Asia.

The green-coloured countries on the map indicate those that recognise Israel. Overwhelmingly, that includes Western Europe , the Americas (with only a few exceptions), and large parts of Africa and Asia.

According to a data table from World Population Review, for example, in Asia alone, many recognisers include India, China, Japan, Thailand and Japan.

In the Americas, the list of recognisers grows: countries such as the United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Peru all recognise Israel. On the African continent, recognisers include Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Ghana, Mozambique and South Africa.

By contrast, the handful of red or dark-shaded states show those that do not recognise Israel or have withdrawn recognition. These include countries like Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Yemen in the Middle East; Bangladesh, Pakistan and Malaysia in South Asia ; and North Korea and Cuba elsewhere.

According to the graphic, Russia reportedly fields around 1.32 million active‐service soldiers compared to Ukraine’s approximately 900,000.

Russia also claims roughly 8,163 aircraft and helicopters versus Ukraine’s 608; around 137,277 tanks and combat vehicles against Ukraine’s 20,034; some 16,678 artillery systems compared to Ukraine’s 1,552; and approximately 758 naval vessels and submarines versus 125 for Ukraine.

These numbers align broadly with independent assessments. For example, the Council on Foreign Relations notes that Russia retains a “sizable advantage” in both personnel and equipment, even though the war has reached a protracted stalemate.

Meanwhile, comparative data tables highlight the larger scale of Russia’s arsenal and reserve forces in a conventional fight.

Yet the war is proving that raw numbers alone don’t guarantee success. Ukrainian forces have shown resilience through strategic use of Western‐supplied systems, terrain advantages and asymmetric tactics.

A recent study by the Dupuy Institute indicates that although Russia may have brought approximately 450,000 troops into Ukraine, Ukraine has kept up with a ground strength of nearly 575,000 when factoring in its reserves.

On the global front, this imbalance and war of attrition carry significant implications: Europe is increasingly urged to step up its defence commitments as the U.S. gradually reassesses its role in Ukraine’s support.

Other nations in the top ten include Serbia and Montenegro (each at 39.1), Canada (34.7), Uruguay (34.7), Cyprus (34.0), Finland (32.4), and Lebanon (31.9), according to the chart.

These numbers draw on estimates from the Small Arms Survey , which combines official registries, national surveys, expert estimates, and comparable-country analogies to calculate civilian firearm holdings.

As of the last comprehensive estimate, the Small Arms Survey places the global total of civilian-held firearms at 857 million out of over one billion firearms in circulation (including military and law enforcement).

The U.S. is estimated to account for nearly half of civilian firearms globally, with around 393 million held by private individuals.

These figures show vast variation in gun ownership across countries, shaped by legal regimes, cultural attitudes, historical factors, and governance systems.

The high concentration of guns in civilian hands, in particular in the U.S., has been central to recent debates around gun violence, mass shootings, and firearm regulation. Policies around background checks, safe storage, and limits on certain weapon types remain fiercely contested in American politics.

Internationally, parts of the Middle East and conflict zones are also under scrutiny. Yemen’s ranking reflects a society long affected by conflict, weak state structures, and permissive weapons access. In Yemen, for example, firearm carrying in rural areas is largely unrestricted, and licensing in urban areas is loosely enforced.

Meanwhile, as global security tensions intensify, from the war in Ukraine to tensions in East Asia , concerns about arms proliferation, illicit firearms trade, and civilian access to weapons are growing.

The letter, seen by AFP, warned that the alleged collusion “had become more evident over the past few months.”

The Ethiopian government accused both Eritrea and the TPLF of “funding, mobilising and directing armed groups” in the Amhara region, where Fano militiamen have been engaged in conflict with federal forces.

Eritrea has not yet commented on the contents of the letter. However, relations between the two neighbours have been increasingly strained in recent months, with the Red Sea emerging as a major flashpoint.

Eritrea gained control of the Red Sea coastline when it became independent from Ethiopia in 1993. The two countries later fought a brutal border war from 1998 to 2000, which killed tens of thousands of people .

Tensions between them had eased after Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018 and built an alliance with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. But relations have since deteriorated, especially as Ethiopia pushes for renewed access to the Red Sea.

According to Addis Standard, the letter from the foreign minister accused Eritrea and TPLF hardliners of supporting Fano's attempted capture of Woldiya, a town in the Amhara region, in September. The paper reported that “TPLF commanders and fighters participated directly in the operation,” quoting the letter.

The letter also stated that the Eritrean government is attempting to destabilise Ethiopia as it felt threatened by Addis Ababa's bid to gain access to the Red Sea.

A faction of the TPLF led by Debretsion Gebremichael controls the government in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which borders Eritrea. That faction accuses Abiy’s government of failing to fully implement the 2022 peace deal that ended the Tigray conflict. It also claims that another TPLF faction, led by Getachew Reda, is working with the federal government in Addis Ababa.

Eritrea, which supported Ethiopian forces during the Tigray conflict, was not a party to the 2022 peace deal. It is now being accused of aligning itself with the Debretsion-led TPLF faction against the federal government.

Meanwhile, conflict in Ethiopia’s Amhara region has intensified. The Fano militias, formerly allies of the government against the TPLF, have refused to disarm, accusing the government of targeting the Amhara ethnic group. The militias appear to be expanding their goals, with increasing efforts to topple the federal government and mounting deadly operations.

Speaking in Ethiopia’s parliament on Monday, President Taye Atske Selassie described the Red Sea and River Nile as “great water resources, which are essential to our country's existence.”

In response, Eritrea’s Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel dismissed the comments, saying the rhetoric was “too crass and pathetic to sell.” He added that the Ethiopian ruling party's “obsession” with the Red Sea and River Nile was “bizarre and mind-boggling by all standards.”

Despite the strict accusations, Ethiopia's letter to the UN also indicated a desire for peaceful resolution, stating that the country “hoped to negotiate with the Eritrean government over this issue.”

What they said

According to William D Hartung, a senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, and the writer of the US Military Aid and Arms Transfers to Israel, October 2023–September 2025 report, “Given the scale of current and future spending, it is clear the [Israeli army] could not have done the damage they have done in Gaza or escalated their military activities throughout the region without US financing, weapons, and political support.”

Reports from Gaza indicate a devastating escalation in violence, resulting in at least 65 deaths and 153 injuries within a single day. The conflict continues to exact a severe humanitarian toll, with hospitals overwhelmed and infrastructure collapsing under repeated bombardments. Civilian areas have been hit hard, raising concerns among international observers about violations of human rights and the disproportionate impact on non-combatants. Jordan, sharing close geographical and humanitarian ties with Palestine, has expressed deep concern over the situation. The government has reiterated its call for an immediate ceasefire and the provision of unrestricted humanitarian access to Gaza, emphasising the urgent need for de-escalation to prevent further loss of life.

“The battle isn’t over yet,” Israeli army chief tells soldiers in Gaza

The Israeli army chief’s statement that “the battle isn’t over yet” signals a prolongation of the ongoing Gaza conflict, suggesting that Israel’s military operations will continue despite international appeals for restraint. This declaration has fuelled fears of an extended confrontation, with implications for regional stability, including Jordan, which remains a vocal advocate for peace in the Middle East. The statement has also intensified public debate across Arab nations about the effectiveness of diplomatic efforts to halt the violence. Jordanian officials have maintained that lasting peace can only come through a two-state solution and renewed negotiations under international supervision, rather than continued military engagement.

Prime Minister honours teachers, announces expanded support programmes

In domestic developments, Jordan’s Prime Minister honoured educators on World Teachers’ Day, announcing an ambitious set of new programs designed to improve working conditions, salaries, and professional development opportunities for teachers across the kingdom. The initiative reflects the government’s commitment to strengthening the education sector as a cornerstone of national progress. The Prime Minister emphasised that education remains central to Jordan’s socio-economic resilience, especially in the face of regional instability. These new programs are expected to include grants for rural schools, digital learning infrastructure, and teacher training in modern pedagogical methods. The announcement was met with optimism by teachers’ unions and educational institutions, which have long called for increased investment in the profession.

Jordan celebrates World Teachers’ Day, emphasising educators’ role in nation-building

As part of World Teachers’ Day celebrations, Jordan held nationwide events to celebrate the contribution of educators to the country’s development. Schools, universities, and civil society organisations hosted panels and cultural programs highlighting the sacrifices and achievements of teachers in shaping future generations. Government ministries underscored the importance of education not only as an academic pursuit but also as a moral and civic foundation for nation-building. The theme of the celebration—empowering teachers for sustainable development—resonated strongly with Jordan’s ongoing reforms in the education sector, which aim to modernise curricula and align learning outcomes with the needs of the 21st-century economy. The day concluded with awards recognising outstanding educators for excellence and innovation in teaching.

IEC delegation reviews Syrian parliamentary elections process

A delegation from Jordan’s Independent Election Commission (IEC) visited Syria to observe and review the process of the country’s first parliamentary elections since the fall of Bashar al-Assad. The delegation’s participation underscores Jordan’s increasing commitment to supporting democratic governance in the region. According to official statements, the IEC’s involvement was aimed at sharing technical expertise in election monitoring, voter registration systems, and transparency mechanisms. Observers noted that the elections mark a turning point for Syria, though questions remain about inclusivity and fairness. Jordan’s engagement was praised as a gesture of regional solidarity and as part of its broader diplomatic strategy to encourage political stabilisation and reconstruction in neighbouring countries.

In response, Petro doubled down on his criticism, accusing Donald Trump of being “an accomplice to genocide” in Gaza and declaring that the US president “deserves nothing but prison.” Foreign Minister Rosa Villavicencio and Finance Minister Germán Ávila announced they had voluntarily given up their visas in solidarity with the president, while Mining Minister Edwin Palma and senior adviser Angie Rodríguez confirmed theirs had been cancelled by US authorities.

Petro took to social media to frame the cancellations as a badge of honour, writing: “It fills us with pride not to have the visa of a country whose government supports genocide.” Other cabinet members, including Interior Minister Armando Benedetti, suggested more resignations could follow, noting that his own visa had already been revoked twice in the past.

The fallout comes amid a series of confrontations between Bogotá and Washington. Petro has long clashed with Trump over migration, trade and drug policy, while Colombia broke diplomatic ties with Israel in 2024 over the war in Gaza. During Monday’s cabinet meeting, the president announced an end to the free trade agreement with Israel and highlighted plans for Colombia to manufacture its own assault rifles, replacing Israeli imports.

Despite the strain, the US continues to provide Colombia with significant economic and military aid, even after withdrawing its certification as a reliable ally in anti-narcotics efforts earlier this month. With Petro now barred from the United States but holding Italian citizenship, analysts warn that the visa dispute could further complicate already fraught relations between the two countries.

A new map plotting violations between September 2024 and 2025 starkly illustrates how Russia has taken the role of principal provocateur, regularly testing the resilience of allied air defences.

Meanwhile, in southeastern Europe, a long-running Greek-Turkish dispute continues to fuel hundreds of skirmishes each year.

The map highlights a clear pattern of most airspace violations traced to Russia during this period. Especially along the eastern flank of Europe, Russian drones and fighter jets appear intent on probing NATO’s boundaries.

In early September 2025, Polish military officials downed several drones that had intruded into their airspace during strikes against Ukrainian targets. Poland called the breach “unprecedented,” and NATO invoked Article 4 consultations.

Likewise, Romania has reported multiple drone fragments and incursions. In September 2024, drones reportedly flew into Romanian territory during nighttime attacks on Ukraine, one incident that drew condemnation from NATO.

Estonia’s airspace was violated by three Russian MiG-31 fighters, which Estonian officials say lingered in their airspace for about 12 minutes, even after being addressed by NATO jets. Moscow, however, denied any breach, claiming the aircraft remained over international waters.

While Russia dominates headlines on the Eastern front, the map reminds us that aerial confrontations are hardly limited to that border. Southeast Europe continues to see intense airspace friction between Turkey and Greece, especially over the Aegean Sea.

The Hellenic National Defence General Staff reported over 106 violations of the Athens Flight Information Region (FIR) by Turkish drones and maritime patrol aircraft since August (date of report).

Turkey’s violations have not receded entirely. In early 2025, two Turkish CN-235 reconnaissance planes entered Greek airspace over the southeastern Aegean, prompting interceptions under international law.

The Chadian government has finalised an agreement with the Comité Diffa Al-Watan de Miski, a group representing local interests in the Miski region. This deal is seen as a significant step toward stabilising the resource-rich area, which has faced tensions over mining rights and local autonomy. Analysts suggest that the agreement could bring greater government oversight to artisanal gold mining operations, while also addressing long-standing community grievances about marginalisation and environmental degradation.

Weapons cache displayed in Goz-Beïda

Authorities in the Sila region showcased a large cache of war weapons to the press in Goz-Beïda. The arms, reportedly seized during recent security operations, are believed to have originated from cross-border smuggling networks operating near Sudan. The public display underscores Chad’s ongoing security challenges in its eastern regions, where porous borders have allowed weapons trafficking to fuel instability and armed group activity.

New coordination committee for women’s economic empowerment

In an important development for gender equality, Chad has launched a national coordination committee aimed at strengthening women’s economic empowerment. The initiative seeks to harmonise efforts across government ministries, NGOs, and international partners to expand women’s access to credit, training, and entrepreneurship opportunities. Observers see this as aligning with Chad’s broader goals under the African Union’s Agenda 2063 to boost inclusive growth and women’s participation in the economy.

Agreement with Miski stakeholders seen as conflict prevention

Political commentators are highlighting the Miski agreement as more than just a local settlement, framing it as a tool for conflict prevention in a historically restive region. By formalising cooperation with local committees, the government hopes to integrate community leaders into national governance structures, thereby reducing the likelihood of violent flare-ups over land and mining disputes.

Sila Region Security Crackdown Highlights Regional Risks

The recent weapons seizure in Sila also illustrates the fragile security environment in Chad’s borderlands. Experts warn that instability in neighbouring Sudan and the presence of transnational armed groups pose risks that require sustained government vigilance. The crackdown is part of a broader campaign to secure Chad’s borders ahead of upcoming local elections, ensuring that political processes are not disrupted by violence.

The High-Level General Debate begins Tuesday, September 23, where world leaders deliver keynote addresses.

Tradition and protocol determine who speaks first. By long-standing custom, Brazil opens the General Debate, followed by the United States as host. After those two, the order generally follows the rank of the speaker (heads of state, heads of government, etc.) and the time of registration requests.

This year’s first five speakers include:

These leaders are expected to set the tone for the assembly, highlighting their national priorities and how these align (or clash) with global concerns.

The opening five speakers are not only symbolic because of order—they represent different regions with distinct pressures. Brazil, leading as the first speaker, faces issues such as deforestation, the Amazon, and balancing economic growth with environmental responsibility.

The U.S. speech under President Trump will likely underscore immigration, national security, and U.S. views on multilateral cooperation. Indonesia, Turkey, and Peru each bring their own domestic and regional challenges; political stability, human rights, and climate vulnerability that also tie into global debates.

What is driving UNGA80?

UNGA80 is unfolding at a moment of global tensions and accelerating challenges. The war in Gaza and conflict in Ukraine loom large, demanding urgent attention from member states. Climate change , technology ethics (especially around AI), gender equality, and human rights remain high on the agenda.

Another urgent theme is institutional reform of the UN itself. Secretary-General António Guterres is pushing through a wide set of proposals (sometimes referred to as “UN80”) aimed at boosting UN effectiveness in peace, security, and human rights work. These are being closely watched and contested.

Gender equality and the role of women in leadership are also front and centre. UN Women, among other bodies, is hosting events reflecting on gains over the past decades, as well as warning of pushback. The 30th anniversary of the Beijing Declaration & Platform for Action will be marked.

In the letter, dated September 6 and later published by Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro urged Trump to overcome “fake news” damaging bilateral relations, describing them as an obstacle to building a “historic and peaceful” relationship envisioned by Simón Bolívar. The Venezuelan leader also dismissed U.S. accusations of links between his government and drug trafficking , insisting Venezuela is a “territory free of drug production” and not a significant player in narcotics smuggling.

Maduro praised Grenell as a trusted channel of communication, pointing to past cooperation on migrant repatriation issues. However, Trump, when asked by reporters whether he had received the letter, gave a brief and ambiguous response: “We’ll see what happens with Venezuela ”. The U.S. president has recently warned Caracas of “a high price” if it fails to accept deported Venezuelans.

The exchange unfolds as Venezuela’s armed forces conduct nationwide drills, train civilians in weapons handling, and expand border operations in response to the U.S. naval deployment. While Washington says its presence targets drug trafficking, Caracas views the show of force as a threat aimed at regime change. The standoff has further strained ties, with Trump denying any formal plan to oust Maduro even as his administration doubles down on military pressure and sanctions .

However, Kibet says those papers were to enlist him in the Russian military.

After that, he says, his passport and phone were seized. He was moved to a military camp, where he was told he had one choice: fight or face death.

Fleeing the journey to his first mission, he approached Ukrainian soldiers with his hands up, pleading, “I’m Kenyan, don’t shoot.” He is now held in Ukraine, where he repeats that he never intended to join the military. His insights , posted by the Ukrainian army, remain unverified independently.

Russia’s foreign ministry has denied allegations that it uses visa renewals to coerce or trick foreign nationals into combat roles. Still, Evans’ story fits a pattern that international investigators and media outlets say is emerging.

By mid-2024, investigative outlet The Insider reported that over 600 African nationals were fighting for Russia. Many alleged coercion or deceit in how they were recruited.

Some accepted offers of high pay, passports, or promises of education and jobs. Others say they were lured in under false pretences.

Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) has issued reports that Moscow has intensified recruitment campaigns in African countries, including Rwanda, Uganda, Congo, and Burundi. Promised benefits include monthly pay, health insurance, and Russian citizenship for recruits and even their families.

Still, many recruited under such terms find themselves in life-or-death situations, with few avenues for escape or return. Evans’ case brings a human face to what researchers say is a growing global concern.

A map highlights the countries struck by Israeli forces: Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Oman, illustrating how the conflict has become a regional confrontation rather than a strictly local war.

Israeli operations have hit multiple fronts. In Yemen, airstrikes targeted Houthi command centres and military depots in Sanaa and al-Jawf, leaving at least 46 dead and 165 wounded. The Houthis, who have launched drone and missile attacks toward Israel, vowed retaliation, further heightening tensions.

In Syria, strikes have focused on Iranian-backed militia networks and weapons convoys, with analysts noting a sharp increase in frequency and precision since October 7.

Israel has also carried out targeted operations inside Iraq and Iran, hitting militia and drone facilities tied to Tehran. These attacks have sparked fears that the conflict could spill over into a confrontation with Iran, a scenario that would have profound consequences for the region.

The impact of these strikes is being felt well beyond the battlefield. Oil prices have spiked repeatedly on news of Israeli attacks against Iranian and Houthi targets, reflecting fears of disruption to shipping lanes in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.

European diesel prices have also risen as the conflict threatens critical energy flows. Investors are flocking to gold and U.S. Treasuries as safe-haven assets, while Gulf stock markets have dipped on days of heavy strikes.

Economists warn that if the conflict continues to expand, global growth projections could be downgraded, and inflationary pressures could persist longer than expected. For businesses and governments alike, the stakes are high: any escalation risks disrupting energy supplies, shipping routes, and trade flows that connect Asia, Europe, and Africa.

The map of countries targeted by Israel is no longer just a visual of military strikes; it is a warning sign of a region edging toward a broader conflict with potentially global economic consequences. Whether diplomacy can catch up to the pace of escalation will determine how deep and far-reaching the next phase of this crisis becomes.

The move comes as the United States increases its military presence in the southern Caribbean. Washington has deployed F-35 fighter jets to Puerto Rico, warships, submarines, and thousands of troops as part of counter-narcotics and maritime security operations.

A recent flashpoint fueling tensions was a U.S. strike against a Venezuelan vessel allegedly linked to drug trafficking and the criminal group Tren de Aragua . Eleven people were killed in the operation. The Venezuelan government rejected the accusation, questioned the authenticity of footage released by U.S. authorities, and denied any connection to narcotrafficking.

Adding pressure, the U.S. Department of Justice has doubled the bounty for information leading to Maduro’s arrest, raising it to $50 million under charges tied to drug trafficking. Maduro, in turn, insists that Venezuela is not a drug-producing country.

Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, one of Maduro’s closest allies, stated that Venezuela does not seek war but must remain prepared for it. Meanwhile, the Pentagon emphasised that “the ball is in Maduro’s court”, framing U.S. actions as part of its anti-narcotics mission. Analysts have warned of the risk of a proxy conflict or, at a minimum, a sharp diplomatic and military escalation between Caracas and Washington.

This standoff marks a critical juncture in U.S.–Venezuela relations, with rhetoric hardening and military deployments multiplying, leaving the hemisphere closely watching whether the next step will be negotiation, sanctions , or confrontation.

Machar, who has been under house arrest since late March, is accused of being involved with the White Army, a loosely organised militia largely composed of fighters from the Nuer ethnic group, and using “political and military structures” to influence or direct their operations during the attack.

In addition to Machar, seven individuals aligned with his Sudan People ’s Liberation Movement/Army-in Opposition (SPLM-IO) have also been formally charged and suspended from their government posts.

Among them are Petroleum Minister Puot Kang Chol and Lt. General Gabriel Duop Lam, Deputy Chief of Staff of the army. A further 13 suspects remain at large.

President Salva Kiir, whose political relationship with Machar has been uneasy since the 2018 peace deal ended South Sudan’s five-year civil war, has suspended Machar as first vice president following the charges.

Machar’s spokesperson dismissed the charges as a “political witch-hunt”, arguing that the judicial system in South Sudan is not independent but instead “politically directed courts”. The SPLM-IO has warned that the move threatens to undermine the 2018 Revitalised Peace Agreement and could risk reigniting armed conflict.

Roads to Machar’s residence in Juba have been blocked by soldiers and tanks, heightening concerns about the potential for escalation. International actors, including the United Nations and the African Union, have urged restraint.

Israel launched an airstrike on Hamas’ political leadership headquarters in Qatar on Tuesday, September 9, as top officials convened to discuss a U.S. ceasefire proposal for Gaza. The strike on the soil of a U.S. ally marked a major escalation, angering Qatar, which condemned the attack as a “flagrant violation of all international laws and norms.” Hamas claimed its senior leaders survived but confirmed the death of five members, including the son of Gaza chief negotiator Khalil al-Hayya. The United States said it was notified before the strike but distanced itself, with President Donald Trump calling the incident “unfortunate” and unhelpful to peace efforts.

U.S. think tank warns on Qatar LNG reliance

The Foundation for Defence of Democracies has urged Taiwan to reduce reliance on Qatar for liquefied natural gas (LNG), warning of Beijing’s potential influence over energy supplies. In a tabletop exercise, the group highlighted Taiwan’s dependence on LNG imports, with nearly 30% coming from Qatar under a 27-year supply deal. The report cautioned that China could exploit this reliance through economic pressure, cyberattacks, or maritime blockades, putting Taiwan’s energy security and semiconductor industry at risk. The think tank advised diversification, increased U.S. energy cooperation, and renewable investments.

Qatar firms recognised among Asia’s best workplaces

Great Place to Work named its 2025 Best Workplaces in Asia, with multiple Qatar-based companies making the list. The rankings, drawn from surveys of nearly 7.5 million employees, recognised firms such as Hilton, DHL Express, Marriott International, Cisco, IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Chalhoub Group. Jules Youssef, Managing Director for Qatar and the Gulf, said the recognition reflected strong workplace cultures, employee well-being initiatives, and innovative management practices that highlight Qatar’s expanding business ecosystem.

Qatar denounces Israeli ‘crimes’ at UN rights council

At the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, Qatar’s Permanent Representative Dr. Hend bint Abdulrahman Al Muftah accused Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza. She condemned the targeting of Hamas political bureau residences in Doha, the destruction of civilian infrastructure, and the killing of journalists and aid workers. Dr. Al Muftah called for urgent international action to hold Israel accountable and to support the creation of an independent Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

Banking sector posts steady growth in July

Qatar’s banking sector recorded a 4.5% year-to-date rise in public sector loans to QR1,406.9bn in July 2025, according to QNB Financial Services. While private sector loans remained flat, the loan-to-deposit ratio rose to 134.3% from 132 in June, as loan growth outpaced deposits. Total banking assets stood at QR2.117 trillion, up 3.4% compared to year-end 2024. Analysts noted that public sector deposits rose modestly, led by increases in government and semi-government segments, while liquid assets represented a healthy 31% of total assets.

What’s at stake?

It was more than a local tragedy when four villagers were killed by armed men in the Ivorian town of Difita, which is close to the Burkina Faso border.  It indicated that the thin border that once divided the states of the Gulf of Guinea from the insurgencies of the Sahel is gradually eroding.  Having not experienced a fatal attack linked to jihadists since 2021 (attribution of the August attack is still being investigated), Côte d’Ivoire is now faced with renewed militant incursions along its northern border.

However, the implications go beyond national borders. There is also an increase in violence and instability in Ghana, Togo, and Benin.  These states work together to create a frontline against the southward movement of organisations such as Islamic State affiliates and Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM).  The risk profile for investors, humanitarian organisations, and international partners is drastically changing as violence approaches ports, commercial centres, and political capitals.

The background

The security situation along West Africa's coast has worsened in recent months.  In 2025, Benin—once thought of as a relatively safe area—saw its deadliest terrorist attack ever.  Twelve people were killed when suspected jihadists ambushed park rangers and security personnel in Pendjari National Park in July.  There is a pattern to this:  In 2023, there were 171 extremist attacks in Benin; since then, the violence has only increased, causing widespread displacement in the country's northern regions.

Lethal incursions have also occurred in Togo.  On May 10-11, eight soldiers were killed when JNIM-affiliated militants stormed a military outpost close to the Burkina Faso border.  The attack demonstrated how militants are undermining local security forces' credibility by testing state capabilities in border areas.  In 2023 alone, Togo saw 14 attacks and 66 fatalities; this trend is expected to continue in 2025.

Ghana, so far spared from major attacks, continues to play an increasingly dangerous role.  According to reports, militants take advantage of porous borders in northern Ghana to resupply, receive medical care, and handle logistics.  Although authorities deny allegations that Ghana is used as a "supply line" for extremists, the country's northern districts are home to more than 15,000 Burkinabe refugees , placing a strain on resources and raising concerns about radicalisation.

On top of all of this is a humanitarian crisis: by early 2025, over 160,000 people had fled the violence in Burkina Faso to neighbouring Ghana, Togo, Côte d’Ivoire, and Benin.  Resentment is growing, while infrastructure and host communities are overburdened.  Political instability is being exacerbated by the humanitarian crisis as Sahelian violence spreads southward.

Comment: coastal state defences under strain

A structural change in regional security is reflected in the southward movement of Sahelian insurgencies.  Extremist organisations are now openly targeting coastal states rather than scouring the borders.  Attacks like Togo's outpost raid and Benin's Pendjari massacre show that militants are looking for both propaganda value and territorial depth.

 Support from international partners is increasing.  Coastal state security forces now receive more funding, training, and intelligence sharing from the US, France, and EU.  However, there are still significant local capacity gaps.  Uneven coordination persists among Benin, Togo, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire, and internal politics - especially surrounding elections and governance challenges- run the risk of diverting attention from a collaborative and comprehensive security plan.

For Western governments, the stakes are high. The Gulf of Guinea is a critical trade corridor and investment destination. Similar to the political collapse in the Sahel, a destabilised coastal belt may encourage migration northward, interfere with supply chains, and create an environment conducive to further coups.

Assessment: near- and medium-term projections

Attacks in Benin and Togo's border areas are likely to continue in the near future as militants take advantage of vulnerable borders and overburdened military personnel.  There is a realistic possibility of intermittent incursions into Côte d’Ivoire, though Abidjan will seek to contain violence north of key commercial zones. Although there is a realistic chance of escalation due to the existence of militant logistics networks and refugee pressures, Ghana is still less vulnerable to direct attacks in the short term.

Like central Mali, northern Benin and Togo run the risk of becoming semi-permanent militant operating zones as a result of entrenched violence in the medium term.  Diplomatic and investor confidence may drastically change if Ghana is the target of any significant attack.  A growing security void along its southern flank, increased migration pressure, and heavier humanitarian burdens are all consequences of this trajectory for Europe.  The trajectory of violence indicates that coastal West Africa is entering a new and more dangerous phase of the Sahel conflict, despite increased external support.

Conclusion

The attack in northern Ivory Coast is not an isolated event but a symptom of a broader regional trend: the Sahel insurgency is pushing south, and coastal states are under mounting pressure. Benin and Togo are already suffering, Ghana is under strain, and Côte d’Ivoire is once again vulnerable. The Gulf of Guinea runs the risk of inheriting the Sahel's crisis and becoming a new epicentre of instability if regional governments and their international allies fail to bridge the gap between rhetoric and capability.

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Burkina Faso declared UN Resident Coordinator Carol Flore-Smereczniak persona non grata, denouncing a UN report on children in armed conflict as “unfounded” and biased. The government accused the report’s authors of equating its security forces with terrorists and said national authorities were excluded from the process.

️ Four ISIS attacks in Burkina Faso within 24 hours

Between August 16–17, 2025, ISIS launched a wave of coordinated attacks in northern Burkina Faso, ambushing pro-army forces, striking villages near Gorom-Gorom, and hitting an army convoy on the Sebba–Dori road. The assaults left heavy casualties and highlighted ISIS’s aim to cripple army logistics and control key transport routes.

Burkina receives activist Alino Faso’s remains

The remains of Burkinabe activist Alain Christophe Traoré, known as Alino Faso, who died in disputed circumstances in an Abidjan prison, arrived in Ouagadougou on Monday. Officials, family, and civil society received his coffin in a solemn ceremony, after weeks of public outcry rejecting the Ivorian suicide ruling and demanding repatriation.

Burkina Faso enacts territorial reorganisation by decree

Burkina Faso now counts 17 regions, 47 provinces, and 350 departments, with 13 regions and five provinces renamed. The changes were formalised by two decrees issued by President Captain Ibrahim Traoré.

This diplomatic split is deeply rooted in history, shaped by solidarity with Palestine, pan-Arab influence, and Africa’s own political transformations.

Today, Israel counts 46 African states as partners, but nine countries remain outside its diplomatic circle: Algeria, Mali, Niger, Libya, Mauritania, Somalia, Djibouti, Comoros, and Tunisia.

The red zone: Countries without diplomatic relations

These nine states form the core of Africa’s non-recognition bloc.

Israel’s network across Africa

Despite these holdouts, Israel maintains diplomatic relations with the overwhelming majority of African nations.

Israel has formal ties with 46 African countries, supported by a network of embassies and missions across the continent. The relationship stretches back to the post-colonial period, with Ghana becoming the first sub-Saharan country to establish ties in 1956.

Though many African states cut ties in the 1970s under Arab League pressure, relations were gradually restored from the 1980s onward. (

In 2023, Chad reopened diplomatic relations and inaugurated an embassy in Israel, signalling a turning point in Central Africa.

The Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between Israel and several Arab states starting in 2020, had ripple effects across Africa, making ties with Israel more politically feasible in certain quarters.

In 2021, however, Israel briefly secured observer status at the African Union, though this status was suspended in 2023 amid mounting opposition.

The war in Gaza since 2023 has placed strains on Israel’s global diplomacy, including in Africa.

In April 2025, Israel’s ambassador was expelled from an African Union event after its observer status was revoked, highlighting the political cost of the conflict.

Yet analysts argue that Israel’s African partnerships today are far more resilient than in the past. Shared interests in agriculture, water technology, and counter-terrorism continue to anchor cooperation even during crises.

Within 72 hours, almost 60 civilians were killed in assaults attributed to Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels in Lubero territory’s Bapere sector and in Oïcha, capital of Beni territory (North Kivu). The latest attack occurred on the evening of August 16, 2025, in Oïcha’s Mbimbi district, where fighters killed at least nine civilians and set fire to a dozen houses. Atrocious images circulated online the next day, with local civil society confirming the assailants withdrew after the attack. The surge in violence follows the dismantling of a major ADF base by joint Congolese and Ugandan forces in Ituri’s Mambasa region, raising fears of reprisals.

Ceasefire violations intensify amid stalled Doha peace process

The Congolese Ministry of National Defence informed the Council of Ministers of continued violations of the Washington Agreement and Doha Declaration of Principles. Reports cite forced child recruitment and repeated assaults on FARDC positions by M23/AFC rebels. Rising tensions between FARDC and the M23 coalition in North and South Kivu were accompanied by accusations of civilian massacres. The Congolese army condemned the “warmongering attitude” of M23/AFC, warning of further destabilisation as the Doha peace talks face delays.

SADC ministers review Eastern DRC conflict

On August 15, the SADC Ministerial Committee of the Organ Troika met in Antananarivo, Madagascar, ahead of the 45th Summit of Heads of State. Chaired by Tanzania’s Ambassador Mahmoud Thabit Kombo, the meeting reviewed security developments in Eastern DRC, Mozambique, and other regional hotspots. The ministers also discussed the DRC–Zambia border dispute, election reviews in the region, and mechanisms for mediation and preventive diplomacy. Documents were prepared for the Organ Troika Summit, reaffirming SADC’s focus on peace and security coordination.

Government creates Strategic Investment Fund

The Congolese government has approved a decree establishing the Strategic Investment Fund of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Presented by Finance Minister Doudou Fwamba at the Council of Ministers meeting on August 15, the fund will mobilise and structure financing to support national development, economic diversification, and sovereignty. Its responsibilities include investing in infrastructure, energy, agriculture, industry, and emerging technologies; managing public assets transparently; and promoting co-investment with institutional and private partners.

U.S. calls UN Security Council meeting on DRC atrocities

The United States has requested an emergency UN Security Council meeting to address ongoing atrocities in the DRC. The State Department’s Office of African Affairs condemned violence by M23/AFC rebels and called on all parties to respect the Doha ceasefire. Amnesty International, in a new report, denounced abuses by both M23/AFC and pro-government Wazalendo militias, citing extrajudicial killings, sexual violence, kidnappings, and attacks on hospitals. The NGO urged Rwanda to take responsibility and pressed President Félix Tshisekedi to prosecute Wazalendo fighters implicated in crimes.

Researchers at Human Rights Watch (HRW) analysed photos and dozens of testimonies to piece together how farmers, some with their hands tied, were beheaded or had their throats cut with machetes or were simply shot.

The attacks appear to have begun on July 10 or 11 after farmers who had been ordered off their fields were told by M23 leaders that they could return on payment of a $10 tax. Militiamen blocked the roads for several days to prevent people leaving and even reportedly killed relatives who came to retrieve bodies.

“I left to hide some tools but when I returned to get my family, I saw the M23 had reached them,” said a farmer who was living in a field near Kiseguru. “I could see them [his family members] from a distance … they were all shot dead.” He told HRW his wife and their three children —aged 9 months to 10 years old—were killed in front of him.

The bodies of men were apparently left in the fields to support claims that they had been killed in an operation against the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, another armed group linked to perpetrators of the 1994 genocide in neighbouring Rwanda.

However, witnesses said women and children were led away.

One woman recounted:

“Around 10 a.m., we were forced to walk toward the place where our lives were going to end. We walked in silence. If a child started crying, they threatened to kill them. They killed with knives.” She said they were a group of about 70 people, including women and girls: “We walked all day until we reached the confluence of the Kitchuru and Rive Rivers in the evening…. They told us to sit on the edge of the riverbank, and then they started shooting at us.”

She said she escaped by falling into the river. Almost 50 people were killed, she said.

The killings continued for several weeks.

HRW reported that witnesses identified the fighters as members of the M23 group, and also saw soldiers in Rwandan military uniforms. However, Rwanda has denied any involvement, blaming the killings on another group hostile to M23.

The massacres happened after the signing of a peace treaty between Rwanda and the Congolese government, mediated by Donald Trump , which was supposed to end the violence.

They include matches between Ukraine and Russia, Spain and Gibraltar, Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Kosovo against Serbia, Bosnia‑Herzegovina or Russia.

Why are these fixtures banned?

Russia vs Ukraine

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led UEFA and FIFA to suspend all Russian clubs and national teams from international competition. In September 2022, UEFA confirmed that Russia would remain banned from the Euro 2024 qualifying draw; Russian teams were excluded from international competitions by both governing bodies days after the invasion, and their appeal was rejected by the Court of Arbitration for Sport.

Ukraine continues to play, but for security reasons, Belarus (a Russian ally) and Ukraine cannot be drawn together. The war has forced Ukrainian clubs like Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kyiv to relocate matches abroad and has made political banners commonplace at games.

Spain vs Gibraltar

Spain contests Britain’s sovereignty over the tiny territory of Gibraltar, so UEFA does not pair the two in qualifiers. Tensions flared after Spain’s Euro 2024 triumph when midfielder Rodri and captain Álvaro Morata sang “Gibraltar is Spanish” in Madrid.

UEFA banned both players for one match, saying they violated “the general principles of conduct” and brought the sport into disreputetheguardian.com. Gibraltar’s federation called the chant “extremely provocative and insulting,” underscoring the political sensitivity.

Armenia vs Azerbaijan

Decades of conflict over Nagorno‑Karabakh mean Armenia and Azerbaijan cannot play each other. In 2020, UEFA’s executive committee ruled that no club or national team competitions would take place in Armenia or Azerbaijan until further notice because of renewed fighting . The ban protects teams and fans from becoming entangled in hostilities, which have flared repeatedly since the 1990s.

Kosovo vs Serbia/Bosnia‑Herzegovina/Russia

The most complicated case involves Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008. Serbia, Russia and Bosnia‑Herzegovina still refuse to recognise Kosovo’s statehood, and UEFA therefore bars fixtures between Kosovo and those nations.

Kosovo’s attempts at independence led to the Kosovo War (1998‑1999) and NATO intervention; although Kosovo joined FIFA and UEFA in 2016, the refusal of Serbia and its allies to accept its sovereignty keeps their teams apart. Political tensions also mean that Kosovo’s national team, established only in 2014, must play some home games at neutral venues.

Countries like Serbia and the Ottoman Empire are shaded the darkest, indicating that more than 10% of their populations died; other nations fall into bands ranging from 4‑10% down to below 0.5%.

Historians still debate how many people died in the Great War. According to the French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED), the conflict caused nearly 10 million military deaths . The institute notes that over 2 million Germans, nearly 2 million Russians, nearly 1.5 million French, about 800,000 Britons and 650,000 Italians were killed.

An article for the U.S. television network History cites an official post‑war report noting that the Allied powers: Britain, France, Russia, Italy, Serbia, the United States and others, lost around 5.4 million military personnel , including 885,138 Britons, 1,397,800 French soldiers, 1,811,000 Russians, 651,000 Italians, 275,000 Serbs and 116,708 Americans.

The Central Powers: Germany, Austria‑Hungary, the Ottoman Empire and Bulgaria lost about four million soldiers. The same article notes that fatalities included those who died from wounds, disease and accidents.

Countries that lost more than 10% of their people

The darkest shading on the map highlights nations where more than one in ten people died. Serbia is the most extreme example. Small yet caught at the heart of the conflict, Serbia lost about 275,000 soldiers, according to the Allied report cited by History.

The demographic impact was catastrophic. INED describes France as the allied country with the highest proportion of deaths after Serbia, implying that Serbia’s losses were even higher relative to its population. Many demographers estimate that around one‑sixth of Serbia’s pre‑ war population perished when military and civilian deaths are combined.

The Ottoman Empire (modern‑day Turkey) also appears in the darkest category. The International Encyclopedia notes that losses were particularly heavy for Turkey because poor sanitation and food shortages added to battlefield deaths. Official figures vary widely: one table in the encyclopedia lists military deaths ranging from 325,000 to 804,000.

Factoring in civilians, some historians estimate the empire lost more than 13% of its population. Parts of Africa and the Middle East, such as German East Africa (present‑day Tanzania) and Libya, also show extremely high mortality in the map, reflecting local conflicts and famine.

The remarks come in the aftermath of the recent 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran, a volatile confrontation that ended with a series of high-impact Israeli and U.S.-backed strikes on Iran’s suspected nuclear sites.

Trump, during the meeting, claimed responsibility for the degradation of Iran’s nuclear capability during that conflict.

“Can you imagine the beating they took?” Trump said. “We wiped out their nuclear possibilities. They can start again. If they do, we’ll wipe it out faster than you can wave your finger at it.”

He added that Iran has been "sending very bad signals" despite suffering heavy losses. “Very nasty signals,” he emphasised. “And they shouldn’t be doing that.”

Trump’s fiery comments come as Iran resumes negotiations with the E3: the UK, France, and Germany, along with the European Union , in an attempt to revive diplomatic discussions over its nuclear programme.

Tehran, however, continues to maintain that its nuclear ambitions are strictly peaceful and focused on civilian energy development.

“We are ready to do any confidence-building measure needed to prove that Iran’s nuclear programme is peaceful and would remain peaceful forever, and Iran would never go for nuclear weapons, and in return, we expect them to  lift their sanctions ,” Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, told Fox News last week.

What they said

“We have seen very positive development and results that would augur well for Cambodia and Thailand,” Anwar said as he stood alongside the two leaders. He added, “This is a vital first step towards de-escalation and the restoration of peace and security.” Hun Manet said he had “a very good meeting and very good result that we hope to stop immediately the fighting that have caused many lives lost.” He also praised Trump’s “decisive” role in facilitating the talks and expressed hope that the agreement would lead to the “rebuilding of trust and confidence” between the two nations. Phumtham, who had previously expressed scepticism about Cambodia’s sincerity, said the ceasefire would “be carried out successfully in good faith by both sides.”

By Saturday, July 26, around 3,000 Thai evacuees had sought refuge at Surindra Rajabhat University in Surin. Evacuees were seen resting on the floors of the university hall as volunteers and uniformed officers distributed food and provided support.

"We had to evacuate our people for their safety. This formula is the only centre that welcomes people in Phanom Drak District. All assistance is going well. Just now I was satisfied with the help. As for the shortages, we will follow up later," Samat, a volunteer from the evacuation team, said.

"My house is located on the border. Between the border and my house, the distance is only 3 kilometres, so I had to come here. I feel homesick, and I am worried about my family because my father is still at home," Ratana, a resident, shared concerns. 

The conflict stems from a territorial dispute dating back to the 1900s. In response to the latest escalation, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who currently chairs the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), proposed a ceasefire on Friday, July 25. On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the leaders of both countries had agreed to work toward a ceasefire.

Malaysia’s foreign minister confirmed on Sunday that Thailand and Cambodia had agreed for Malaysia to serve as a mediator in the dispute.

Earlier in July, Thailand’s Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra following allegations of ethical violations. A leaked phone call between Paetongtarn and former Cambodian leader Hun Sen, in which she reportedly discussed the border conflict and expressed personal support, raised questions regarding propriety and national interest.

What they said

National Commissioner of the Lesotho Mounted Police Service (LMPS), Borotho Matsoso said , “It is not necessarily young Basotho, but Basotho nationals of different ages, we have discovered that they have been recruited to join this military training in some of the farms in South Africa. This is what we have come across.”

In view of this, The UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) has released its latest Foreign Travel Advice for the Middle East, outlining crucial guidance for British citizens planning trips to the region.

The update , effective June 2025, categorises countries and regions into four colour-coded risk zones based on security, political stability, and public safety.

According to the FCDO's updated travel map:

Key Safe Travel Zones

Countries with mostly green or blue zones include:

High-Risk Areas

Several countries remain highly restricted or entirely advised against for travel:

“This agreement is a significant step toward de-escalation, peace, and stability,” Guterres said in a statement released by the UN. He commended the United States for its mediation, alongside efforts by Qatar, African Union mediator Faure Gnassingbé of Togo, and regional organisations such as the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

The peace deal includes commitments to end state support for armed groups like the FDLR and M23, implement a ceasefire, establish a joint monitoring mechanism, and enable the voluntary return of displaced persons.

“With this peace agreement, we open a new chapter, one that calls not only for commitment, but for the courage to see it through,” said DRC Foreign Minister Therese Wagner.

A summit between DRC President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame is planned for late July at the White House.

Guterres emphasised that the agreement must be implemented in full accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2773 (2025) , which calls for an immediate halt to violence and the resumption of diplomatic dialogue.

Eastern DRC has faced decades of conflict since the 1990s, with recent UN reports confirming Rwandan military support to M23 rebels, claims Rwanda denies. The fighting has displaced over 7 million people and left 27.8 million in need of humanitarian assistance, according to the UN Office for the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) .

Despite the diplomatic progress, challenges remain with armed groups like the M23 still controlling territory, and a parallel negotiation process in Doha with M23 leaders is ongoing but not yet concluded.

Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier, in a cautious tone, stated that, “We must acknowledge that there is a great deal of uncertainty in our region, and beyond, because many previous agreements have not been implemented,” he said. “And there is no doubt that the road ahead will not be easy.”

UNHCR head Filippo Grandi described the agreement as "a chance to stop the cycle of violence and displacement," while MONUSCO chief Bintou Keita warned that without swift implementation and international backing, hopes for lasting peace could falter.

"The path to peace demands shared responsibility and collective action," Keita told the UN Security Council on Friday.

He appealed for this during a visit with German Minister of Interior, Alexander Dobrindt, to the site of an Iranian missile strike in Bat Yam, on the outskirts of Tel Aviv.

Saar emphasised that such actions constitute clear violations of international law, stating, "We see here the results of the barbaric Iranian regime's strategy to hit, shamelessly and deliberately, civilian population centres with ballistic missiles. This is clearly a war crime ."

He further highlighted that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had openly acknowledged targeting civilian areas.

The Foreign Minister also raised concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions, noting the country's recent decision to halt cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

"We see Iran's decision to stop the oversight, the inspection of the IAEA on its nuclear programme. They continue to deceive, they continue to mock the international community," urging global powers to take necessary steps to address the threat posed by Iran's nuclear programme.

The recent conflict, marked by a 12-day war between Israel and Iran, saw significant casualties on both sides. Iran reported over 600 civilian deaths, while Israel suffered 28 fatalities. The hostilities culminated in a ceasefire mediated by the United States, with President Donald Trump announcing forthcoming talks between U.S. and Iranian officials.

Despite the ceasefire, tensions remain high. Iran's parliament has approved a bill to suspend all cooperation with the IAEA , effectively halting inspections and oversight of its nuclear facilities. This move has drawn international criticism, with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warning that Iran could potentially resume uranium enrichment within months.

Among the deceased are Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of the General Staff of Iran's Armed Forces; IRGC Commander Hossein Salami; and Brigadier General Ali Shadmani, who had recently assumed command of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters.

The funerals, held in Tehran, drew large crowds of mourners paying their respects to these prominent figures.

The Iranian Ministry of Health reported 610 deaths and 4,746 injuries resulting from Israeli airstrikes.

However, the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) estimates higher figures, citing 974 deaths and 3,458 injuries, including both military personnel and civilians.

Israel reported 29 fatalities and over 3,200 injuries due to Iranian missile and drone attacks. The Israeli military targeted over 900 sites in Iran, aiming to dismantle its nuclear capabilities and missile production infrastructure.

The conflict concluded with a ceasefire mediated by U.S. President Donald Trump, following discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian officials.

The agreement stipulated that both nations would cease hostilities, with the understanding that any further aggression would nullify the truce.

While the ceasefire has brought temporary relief, tensions remain high . Iranian citizens have expressed both hope for lasting peace and concern over potential future conflicts. The Iranian government faces internal criticism for its handling of the situation, and the international community continues to monitor the region closely.

Foreigners have rushed to leave both countries after Israel launched an unprecedented bombing campaign on Friday, June 20, targeting Iran's nuclear and military facilities, sparking retaliation from Tehran.

With Israel's airspace closed and the two countries exchanging heavy missile fire, many people are being evacuated via neighbouring countries.

European countries have already repatriated hundreds of their citizens from Israel. The Czech Republic and Slovakia repatriated 181 people, who were bussed to a neighbouring country and crossed the border on foot, the Czech defence ministry said.

Germany scheduled flights for Wednesday and Thursday via Jordan, while Poland said the first of its citizens would also arrive back on Wednesday. Italian nationals were being offered a charter flight on Sunday from Israel to Egypt and then Italy, with non-refundable reservations set at 500 euros ($575) per adult. Greece said it had repatriated 105 citizens plus a number of foreign nationals via Egypt, while a private plane with 148 people landed in the Bulgarian capital, Sofia, on Tuesday.

Hungary evacuated 21 citizens from Iran via Azerbaijan, mainly diplomats and their families, officials said. Bulgaria repatriated 17, and Slovenia two diplomats and their families.