More than one in five people are already aged 65 or older in a growing group of advanced economies, concentrated heavily in Europe and East Asia, as falling birth rates and longer life expectancy accelerate a demographic shift with consequences for labour markets, pensions and healthcare systems.

According to the United Nations Population Division , people aged 65 and over now make up more than 20% of the population in several countries, with Europe dominating the list and Japan standing out in Asia.

The trend reflects what the United Nations describes as an inevitable outcome of the demographic transition. Declining fertility combined with longer life expectancy progressively increases the share of older people in national populations.

Japan remains the clearest example of the shift.

People aged 65 and over numbered 36.24 million in 2024, accounting for a record 29.3% of Japan's population, according to the country's Statistics Bureau. At the same time, children under 15 represented just 11.2%.

Japan's total population fell by 550,000 to 123.8 million in 2024, marking its 14th consecutive annual decline. Official Japanese statistics, drawing on UN comparisons, have identified Japan as having the world's highest proportion of people aged 65 and over among 200 countries and territories.

The ageing trend is already reshaping employment. Japan had 9.14 million workers aged 65 and above in 2023, accounting for 13.5% of all employed people, according to the Statistics Bureau.

Europe represents the largest geographical concentration of countries where at least one-fifth of residents are 65 or older.

The trend is not new. Eurostat reported that 20.6% of the European Union's population was already aged 65 or above in 2020, up three percentage points from 2010. Italy stood at 23.2%, while Greece and Finland were each at 22.3%, Portugal at 22.1%, Germany at 21.8% and Bulgaria at 21.6%.

More recent UN analysis confirms that the demographic shift is continuing. France and Sweden are among countries where more than 20% of residents were aged 65 or older in 2024.

The ageing of Europe and Japan is closely connected to another demographic milestone. The UN says populations in 63 countries and areas, representing 28% of the world's population in 2024, had already reached their population peak. The group includes Germany, Japan, China and Russia .

Two demographic forces are pushing populations towards older age structures.

Fertility has dropped below the roughly 2.1 births per woman required for long-term population replacement without migration in more than half of the world's 235 countries and areas, according to the UN. Meanwhile, global life expectancy recovered to 73.3 years in 2024, after falling during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Those trends mean ageing will extend far beyond the countries currently highlighted on the map.

By the late 2070s, the UN projects that the global population aged 65 and above will outnumber children under 18. People aged 80 and above are expected to outnumber infants under one as early as the mid-2030s.

These nations include China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Brazil, Bangladesh, Russia, Mexico, Ethiopia, Japan, the Philippines, and Egypt, an eclectic mix of economic powerhouses, emerging markets, and developing nations that collectively influence global decisions on trade, climate, security, and migration.

India and China alone account for over one-third of all humans, but their demographic paths are diverging rapidly. India has officially surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation, a milestone confirmed in the UN’s 2023 World Population Prospects.

India ’s median age is just 28, compared to China’s 39, giving it a much larger working-age population and potentially shifting economic influence in Asia.

Economists, including analysts at the International Monetary Fund, note that this workforce advantage could help India accelerate industrial growth if job creation and education keep pace.

Africa’s largest populations, Nigeria and Ethiopia, are expected to grow dramatically over the next three decades. Nigeria alone could surpass 375 million people by 2050 to become the world’s third most populous nation . The World Bank warns that rapid growth without matching investment in infrastructure, food systems, and education could strain resources, but it also points to Africa’s youth as an engine for innovation and entrepreneurship in a world facing labour shortages elsewhere.

On the other side of the spectrum are countries like Japan and Russia, where populations are shrinking. Japan’s fertility rate remains one of the lowest in the world, and its population is ageing faster than any other major economy.

Russia faces a similar demographic decline, further impacted by migration and the consequences of the war in Ukraine. Both countries illustrate the serious economic and social challenges tied to shrinking labour forces, from reduced productivity to increasing pressure on healthcare and pension systems.

These demographic realities are shaping today’s global news. At recent G20 , UN, and COP28 meetings, leaders acknowledged that population trends directly affect climate negotiations, energy planning, and economic cooperation.

New projections from the UN Population Division show that population growth will be heavily concentrated in Africa and parts of Asia, while Europe, the Americas and Oceania face slowdowns or long-term declines.

These shifts will redefine economies, migration patterns, and geopolitical power in the decades ahead.

According to the latest forecast , Africa is set to become home to 4.6 billion people by 2100, more than tripling its current population. Asia, which today holds nearly 60% of the world’s people, is projected to decline slightly to around 3.8 billion.

Meanwhile, Europe is expected to shrink to 592 million, and Latin America to 380 million, reflecting ageing populations and persistently low birth rates. North America will grow modestly to 710 million, driven largely by migration, while Oceania is expected to reach 73 million.

These numbers arrive at a time when many nations are already struggling with demographic challenges. In 2025, countries from Japan to Italy are dealing with shrinking workforces and rising dependency ratios, prompting governments to rethink labour policies, immigration rules, and social welfare systems.

The UN has warned repeatedly that demographic imbalance is becoming a defining global issue, one that will influence economic growth, energy demand, and even climate strategy.UN Policy Brief: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/content/policy-briefs

Africa’s projected surge reflects both its young population and improvements in health outcomes. The continent currently has a median age of around 19, compared to 42 in Europe.

If managed well, this growth could provide a powerful economic engine, similar to the demographic boom that propelled China’s rise in the late 20th century. But the UN also cautions that without strong investments in education, infrastructure, and job creation, the rapid expansion could deepen inequality and strain public services.

Asia’s projected decline highlights a different challenge. China’s population has already started shrinking, and India is expected to stabilise mid-century before beginning its own decline.

Falling fertility rates, a trend seen across most of Asia , have raised concerns about future economic productivity. The Guardian recently reported that several Asian governments are offering financial incentives to encourage births, yet early results remain limited.

Meanwhile, Europe and parts of Latin America may face some of the world’s steepest demographic contractions. These regions are already experiencing school closures, labour shortages and increased reliance on migration to sustain their economies.

The IMF notes that countries with ageing populations could see slower GDP growth unless they adopt major policy reforms and attract foreign labour.

North America stands out for its relative demographic stability, largely due to immigration. The United States, in particular, continues to rely on migrants to expand its workforce, even amid political debates over border control. Current U.S. economic legislation and election-year discussions highlight how migration remains central to sustaining the country’s long-term population growth.

Oceania, while small in absolute numbers, is projected to continue growing but faces unique challenges tied to climate change. Rising sea levels threaten several Pacific Island nations, prompting discussions about potential displacement and migration corridors long before the end of the century.

Asia remains home to the vast majority, as more than 1.6 billion Muslims are in Indonesia , Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh, forming the core. Indonesia alone has over 240 million Muslims, more than any other country in the world.

Africa follows with approximately 763 million Muslims, reflecting Islam’s long historical influence across North, West, and East Africa.

The above map breaks down the distribution clearly:

Many Muslim-majority countries have some of the world’s youngest and fastest-growing populations . This positions them at the centre of future global workforce trends and economic potential.

Nations like Pakistan, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Egypt have median ages below 25, meaning they will significantly influence global markets and labour dynamics in the coming decades.

Additionally, Muslim-majority regions hold critical economic power. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region contain over 48% of the world’s proven oil reserves and nearly 40% of global natural gas reserves, giving these countries major leverage in international energy markets.

Gulf nations such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE are now also among the world’s most active investors, shaping sectors from technology to real estate across Europe, Africa, and Asia.