Explainer-German coalition collapses: What comes next?

By Thomas Escritt

Germany's coalition collapsed on Wednesday as Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister and paved the way for a snap election, triggering political chaos in Europe's largest economy hours after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election.

After dismissing Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the Free Democrats (FDP) party, Scholz is expected to head a minority government with his Social Democrats and the Greens, the second-largest party.

WHAT HAPPENS NOW?

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Scholz said he would call a confidence motion in his government for Jan. 15, the necessary precursor to holding an election by the end of March.

Under rules created to prevent the kind of coalition turmoil that hastened the end of Germany's interwar democracy, the chancellor largely controls the pace of events: the opposition can only push him out earlier if they can find a majority for a specific alternative chancellor, which would be challenging with the current parliamentary arithmetic.

Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany's president, said he would not make use of his power to block Scholz's push for early elections once parliament has held a confidence vote.

HOW WOULD SCHOLZ GOVERN UNTIL THE ELECTIONS?

The Greens, the second-largest party in the original three-way coalition, will stay in government. With no parliamentary majority of their own, they will need to cobble together ad hoc support for individual votes from other parties.

Scholz said he would ask Friedrich Merz, leader of the opposition conservatives, to support urgently-needed budgetary measures, saying Germany's crisis-stricken economy could not wait until after the elections for government action.

One immediate focus is what happens to the portfolios held by the four FDP ministers in the government - besides Lindner, the ministers of justice, transport and education.

Joerg Kukies, a Scholz ally, former Goldman Sachs investment banker and now deputy finance minister, has been chosen to replace Lindner as finance minister. Transport Minister Volker Wissing wants to stay in his post, a request that the conservative Christian Democrats said was unacceptable.

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WHAT CAN THE OPPOSITION DO?

Merz said March was too late for early elections, calling on Scholz to hold a confidence motion within a week, which would allow for elections as early as January. But he has no practical way of forcing Scholz to act sooner.

Merz could refuse to vote for Scholz's proposed emergency measures, but this would risk harming causes Merz cherishes, such as support for Ukraine against Russia's invasion.

In any case, with a strong lead over all the coalition parties in the polls, Merz might be reluctant to hand Scholz a win shortly before an election.

WHAT MORE CAN GERMANY'S PRESIDENT DO?

Steinmeier's role is largely ceremonial, though his office - formally neutral and above politics - provides a bully pulpit with which to scold wayward politicians.

"Now is not the time for tactics and skirmishing," he said, without naming any parties.

"It is time for reason and responsibility. I expect everyone to live up to the demands of the moment."

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