These Asian nations face growing risk from falling global aid
A new study warns that 21 Asian countries are at serious risk of a humanitarian crisis if international development aid continues to fall.
The research, published in The Lancet Global Health by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), estimates that severe cuts could lead to 22.6 million additional deaths by 2030 across 93 low- and middle-income countries.
The countries at greatest risk in Asia include Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Vietnam.
Asia’s large population, the study noted, makes the region particularly vulnerable.
"Asia's scale means that when health systems fail, the human cost is immense, and in 21 countries across the region, decades of development gains are now at risk of being reversed," said Deepali Khanna, senior vice president and head of Asia at the Rockefeller Foundation.
“These outcomes are not inevitable, but avoiding them requires country-led financing and resilient, self-reliant systems that can protect the most vulnerable and save lives,” Khanna added.
Children most affected
Millions of lives, the study warned, could be lost if development gains achieved over the last two decades are reversed, with children being especially vulnerable to the effects of a potential aid pullback.
Without sustained aid, around 5.4 million children under the age of five could die, according to the study.
Dr. Davide Rasella, study coordinator at ISGlobal, said that development assistance is “among the most effective global health interventions available,” adding that withdrawing support now could reverse decades of progress, leading directly to millions of preventable deaths.
Over the past 20 years, aid has saved millions of lives across the 93 countries analysed.
Child mortality fell by 39%, deaths from HIV/AIDS by 70%, and deaths from malaria and nutritional deficiencies by 56%. Aid has also strengthened healthcare systems and improved preparedness for disease outbreaks.
The study models two scenarios for the period 2025–2030. A mild defunding scenario, with a 10.6 per cent yearly reduction, could result in 9.4 million preventable deaths, including 2.5 million children under five. A severe scenario could see the loss of 22.6 million lives.
The study builds on previous research showing the potential impact of dismantling USAID, which alone could have caused 14 million preventable deaths by 2030. The new analysis includes all OECD donor countries, offering a comprehensive assessment of global aid defunding.
This story is written and edited by the Global South World team, you can contact us here.
