As Duterte faces impeachment, will Robredo rise ahead of the 2028 Philippine presidential election?

Duterte has now joined a small group of political figures, including US President Donald Trump, who have faced impeachment more than once. Under the Philippine system, however, impeachment proceedings require a Senate trial, where at least 16 of the 24 senators must vote against her for a conviction that could remove her from office and block a future presidential bid.

As things currently stand, political observers believe the numbers required for conviction may not yet exist in the Senate. Instead of a decisive outcome, the impeachment process is increasingly being viewed as a prolonged political battle that could shape public opinion over time.

Analysts say the continued presentation of evidence and public scrutiny surrounding the vice president could gradually weaken her political standing ahead of the 2028 elections. At the same time, alternative political figures, including former Vice President Leni Robredo, are reportedly gaining renewed public attention as voters reassess potential candidates.

The impeachment process has also intensified the rivalry between the Marcos and Duterte political camps. While the House of Representatives secured more than 250 votes to move forward with impeachment articles against Duterte, her supporters responded by consolidating influence in the Senate.

The political situation became more dramatic with the reappearance of Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, the former national police chief and a close ally of former President Rodrigo Duterte. Dela Rosa, who faces an International Criminal Court warrant linked to allegations surrounding extrajudicial killings during the Duterte administration’s anti-drug campaign, reportedly appeared to participate in Senate manoeuvres linked to the impeachment process.

Reports indicate that dela Rosa later remained inside the Senate building amid concerns over possible arrest connected to the ICC investigation.

The impeachment battle is now seen as more than a dispute between two powerful political families. It has also opened wider discussions about governance, accountability, and the future direction of Philippine politics.

Progressive and liberal groups are calling for a full Senate trial, arguing that constitutional processes should not be delayed or weakened. Supporters of reform movements also see the current political moment as an opportunity to build momentum ahead of the 2028 presidential race.