Equatorial Guinea and South Africa among Africa’s slowest-growing economies in 2026

Several Sub-Saharan African economies are expected to post weak or even negative growth in 2026, highlighting persistent structural challenges despite stronger performance elsewhere on the continent, according to projections from the International Monetary Fund.

Equatorial Guinea is forecast to record the weakest performance, with its economy expected to contract by around 2.7%. The IMF has repeatedly pointed to the country’s heavy reliance on declining oil production as a key factor behind its prolonged downturn, with limited diversification constraining recovery prospects.

Elsewhere, growth is expected to remain subdued rather than negative. Mozambique is projected to expand by just 0.5%, reflecting ongoing fiscal pressures and vulnerability to external shocks. South Africa, the continent’s most industrialised economy, is forecast to grow by only 1.0%, underscoring deep-rooted challenges including energy shortages, logistics constraints and high unemployment. The IMF has flagged these structural issues as major drags on the country’s growth potential.

Lesotho is expected to post growth of about 1.1%, while Seychelles, heavily dependent on tourism, is projected at 1.5%, a pace that reflects a gradual but uneven recovery in global travel demand.

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Further along the list, Malawi and Senegal are both forecast to grow by around 2.2%, followed closely by Angola at 2.3% and Namibia at 2.4%. While these figures represent positive growth, they fall well below the regional average and highlight limited economic momentum.

The Central African Republic, projected at 2.6%, rounds out the group of slowest-growing economies, reflecting ongoing fragility linked to conflict, infrastructure gaps and reliance on subsistence sectors.

What stands out is the contrast within the region. While some African economies are expanding rapidly, others are struggling to gain traction. The IMF notes that Sub-Saharan Africa’s overall growth outlook remains uneven, shaped by commodity dependence, debt burdens and exposure to global financial conditions.

Countries reliant on a narrow range of exports, particularly oil, are among the most vulnerable. In Equatorial Guinea and Angola, fluctuations in global energy prices continue to have an outsized impact on economic performance. Meanwhile, economies like South Africa face domestic constraints that limit their ability to capitalise on global demand.

The implications extend beyond headline growth figures. Slower expansion can constrain job creation, reduce fiscal space and limit investment in infrastructure and social services. For many of these countries, sustaining even modest growth will require structural reforms, diversification and improved governance.