Taiwan election nears amid China threat
The outcome of the Taiwan election will have major implications for the trajectory of peace and stability between Taiwan and China for years to come.
Taiwan will hold its presidential elections on January 13, 2024. The East Asian nation held its first direct presidential election in 1996, and since then, it has undergone three peaceful transfers of power, in 2000, 2008, and 2016.
Candidates and parties
Four contenders are competing for the presidency. Vice President Lai Ching-te is the Democratic Progressive Party's presidential candidate because President Tsai Ing-wen is ineligible to run for office again owing to term limitations. Hou Yu-ih, the mayor of New Taipei, has been nominated by the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT). The Taiwan People's Party (TPP) has nominated its leader Ko Wen-je.
China's pressure
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There have been reports of Beijing’s increasing efforts to interfere with Taiwan’s presidential elections. This has led to increased tensions, making the election a pivotal turning point.
China has not ruled out using force for what it refers to as "reunification" since it sees Taiwan as a breakaway province. Beijing has previously threatened to declare war on Taiwan if it seeks to pursue independence.
Questions about cultivating friendlier ties with China or strengthening Taiwan’s own identity and sovereignty have dominated past elections, the Asia Society reported.
China’s military activities in the Taiwan area have increased over the years. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) reported that they tracked seven Chinese military aircraft and seven naval vessels around Taiwan between December 12 and December 13.
Voter sentiment
According to a November poll by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation, 74.2% of Taiwanese adults in their 20s and older expressed concern about the outcome of the election.
The study also found that roughly 55.4% of Taiwanese adults are dissatisfied with how the government has handled cross-strait ties over the previous seven years. implying that the DPP's "weakness" on this matter would have an impact on how well its candidate does in the election.
International response and implications
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The international support of Taiwan’s sovereignty has been mixed, the European Union has called for the One China Policy and urged for a "peaceful resolution" of issues in the Taiwan Strait. However, the future course of China-Taiwan ties will be decided by the winner of the January election.
