‘Unprecedented’ Chinese patrols concentrated on Philippine flashpoints in 2025
China sharply increased coast guard patrols at Scarborough Shoal in 2025, reaching what analysts described as an “unprecedented” level of presence at one of the South China Sea’s most contested features, a new report said.
The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) said China’s coast guard shifted its focus last year towards Scarborough Shoal and Sabina Shoal, both areas of frequent tension with the Philippines, even as overall patrol activity across the region rose.
This shift, AMTI noted, came “after years of consistency in patrolling all corners of Beijing’s nine-dash line claim” and demonstrated a “clear reallocation of CCG resources toward flashpoints between China and the Philippines.”
Using vessel tracking data, AMTI found that Chinese patrols were no longer spread evenly across Beijing’s nine-dash line claim. Instead, resources were concentrated on flashpoints involving Philippine vessels, while activity declined at several other disputed areas.
Total coast guard patrols across six monitored locations increased to 2,183 ship days in 2025, up from 1,939 the year before. But patrols fell at Luconia Shoals, Second Thomas Shoal, Thitu Island and parts of the southwestern South China Sea, signalling a clear reallocation of effort.
Scarborough Shoal saw the sharpest increase. Chinese coast guard vessels were present there for 1,099 ship days in 2025, more than double the figure recorded in 2024, with patrols detected on almost every day of the year.
AMTI said Chinese ships also operated over a wider area around the shoal, including waters east of Scarborough that Philippine vessels use to access the feature.
Patrols near Sabina Shoal also expanded significantly, nearly tripling compared with the previous year. Chinese vessels ranged beyond the immediate area of the shoal, extending operations towards nearby unoccupied features such as Half Moon Shoal.
The report said the shift marks the biggest change in China Coast Guard patrol patterns since regular monitoring began in 2019, highlighting Beijing’s growing focus on maritime areas where its claims most directly clash with those of the Philippines.
This story is written and edited by the Global South World team, you can contact us here.
