AfD tops Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election as CDU falls below 5% threshold

Key points

• AfD finishes first with 38.2%
• SPD follows with 35.5%
• CDU falls below the 5% threshold

Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) finished first in the state election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, winning 38.2% of the party-list vote and more than doubling its support from the previous election, according to preliminary official results.

The Social Democrats (SPD) of state premier Manuela Schwesig finished close behind with 35.5%, down from 39.6% in 2021. The Left secured 6.5% and the Greens 5.7%, while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) received 4.9%, leaving it just below the threshold normally required to enter the state parliament. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) also fell short at 4.8%.

The result marks a major advance for the AfD in the northeastern state. Its 38.2% share was up 21.5 percentage points from 16.7% in 2021. Reuters reported that the party claimed a mandate to form a government after finishing first, although the other main parties have ruled out governing with it.

SPD remains a major force despite losing first place

The result also showed stronger support for the SPD than some earlier polling had suggested. Schwesig's party secured more than a third of the vote despite losing about four percentage points compared with 2021.

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The existing SPD-Left coalition, however, no longer has enough support on its own to continue with the same two-party arrangement. Any new government will depend on coalition negotiations following the final allocation of seats. Reuters reported that Schwesig said she was ready to lead a stable government and rejected cooperation with the AfD.

The CDU suffered the sharpest setback. Its party-list vote dropped from 13.3% in 2021 to 4.9%, putting it outside the state parliament under the preliminary result. Reuters reported that it would be the first time the CDU had failed to enter a German state parliament.

Turnout rises sharply

Voter participation was also unusually high. The state's electoral authority said 1,024,251 of 1,311,294 eligible voters cast ballots, producing turnout of 78.1%. That was considerably higher than the 70.8% recorded at the 2021 state election.

The September 20 vote was Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's ninth state election since German reunification. The preliminary result leaves the AfD as the largest party by vote share, but finishing first does not automatically give a party control of the government under Germany's parliamentary system. A government must be able to command sufficient support in the state parliament.