China, India and Brazil tighten grip on global cotton supply as 2025–26 production landscape shifts

Global cotton production is set to remain heavily concentrated among a handful of major producers in the 2025/26 season, with China, India and Brazil accounting for the bulk of output, according to projections from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and market data from Trading Economics.

China is projected to remain the world’s largest cotton producer, accounting for 29% of global output, or around 7.7 million tonnes, according to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimates for the 2025/26 marketing year.

The country’s dominance is driven by highly mechanised production in regions such as Xinjiang, which has become the centre of China’s cotton industry. USDA data shows China consistently ranks as both the top producer and consumer of cotton globally, reflecting strong domestic demand from its textile sector.

India is expected to produce 5.1 million tonnes, representing 19% of global supply, maintaining its position as the second-largest producer. However, yields remain sensitive to monsoon variability, a factor that continues to shape output volatility, according to Trading Economics agricultural data trends.

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Brazil, now firmly established as a global agricultural powerhouse, is projected to contribute 4.2 million tonnes (16%), benefitting from large-scale, export-oriented farming and rising productivity. USDA data indicates Brazil has steadily increased its share of global cotton exports over the past decade.

The United States is forecast to produce 3.0 million tonnes (12%), ranking fourth globally. While not the largest producer, the US remains the world’s leading cotton exporter, supplying key markets in Asia, particularly China, Vietnam and Bangladesh.

Trading Economics data highlights that US cotton production is influenced by weather patterns, especially drought conditions in major producing states such as Texas.

Beyond the top four, several countries contribute smaller but still significant shares:

• Pakistan: 1.1 million tonnes (4%), heavily tied to domestic textile demand
• Australia: 1.0 million tonnes (4%), known for high yields and water-efficient farming
• Türkiye: 0.7 million tonnes (2%), driven by a strong textile industry
• Uzbekistan: 0.6 million tonnes (2%), continuing reforms in its cotton sector
• Argentina and the EU: around 0.3 million tonnes each

These producers play important roles in regional supply chains, particularly in Asia and Europe.