Brazil election poll shows sharp regional split between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

Key points

• Lula has 39% nationally to Bolsonaro’s 34%
• Lula’s strongest support comes from the Northeast
• Bolsonaro performs better in the South and Centre-West/North

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has 39% support in the first round of the presidential election, compared with 34% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, according to a Quaest poll released on September 28.

The five-point national gap is larger than the poll's overall margin of error of two percentage points. In the previous Quaest survey, Lula had 37% and Bolsonaro 33%, meaning both moved up within the margin of error.

The survey also shows a much wider geographical divide beneath the national numbers.

Lula records 56% in the Northeast, compared with 24% for Bolsonaro, according to the regional breakdown shown in the Quaest data. It is by far Lula's strongest region in the first-round scenario.

RECOMMENDED FOR YOU

Six countries account for three-quarters of Europe’s unicorn startups

The Northeast has long been a major source of electoral support for Lula and his Workers' Party. The latest figures show that advantage continuing as Brazil approaches the first round on October 4.

The pattern reverses in the South, where Bolsonaro has 41% against Lula's 27%. Bolsonaro also records 41% across the combined Central-West and North, compared with 36% for Lula.

In the Southeast, home to a large share of Brazil's electorate, the contest is much closer: Bolsonaro has 35% and Lula 33%.

These regional differences need to be treated cautiously because their margins of error are larger than for the national poll. They stand at four percentage points in the Northeast, three in the Southeast, six in the South and five in the combined Central-West/North.

Other candidates remain well behind the two frontrunners. Quaest puts Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado at 4% each, Renan Santos at 3% and Romeu Zema at 1%. Another 10% said they would vote blank or null or would not vote, while 5% were undecided.

The poll also found high rejection levels for both leading candidates. Some 56% said they would not vote for Flávio Bolsonaro, while 55% said the same about Lula.

RECOMMENDED FOR YOU

Senegalese protest rising cost of living in Dakar