Bolivia Roundup: Political trust erodes, fuel crisis deepens, and regions secure a landmark 50/50 agreement

Falling public trust becomes a warning for Rodrigo Paz’s administration

Political analyst Gustavo Pedraza has warned that the erosion of public confidence is beginning to undermine President Rodrigo Paz’s administration. In response to an Ipsos Ciesmori survey, Pedraza attributed the decline in support to unmet expectations and argued that the deterioration could deepen unless the government changes how it manages the state. His conclusion was blunt: “If the same thing continues to be done, the result will be the same.” Political scientist Carlos Cordero separately said the survey should be treated as an alert for the government, particularly given the level of rejection recorded in El Alto. He linked the disapproval directly to public perceptions of the economy, repeated fuel-supply problems and dissatisfaction with the president’s overall management. The falling approval comes after months of political and economic turmoil. Paz entered office in November 2025, promising market-oriented reform and an end to fuel shortages, but subsidy cuts, price increases, allegations of contaminated fuel and protests weakened the early optimism surrounding his government. By May 2026, widespread blockades and clashes had exposed deep divisions between the administration and Indigenous, labour and rural organisations that had expected greater inclusion.

Civic leader alleges profiteering from fuel resale and smuggling

Stello Cochamanidis, president of the Pro Santa Cruz Civic Committee, has accused unnamed actors of profiting from the resale and smuggling of fuel while Bolivia continues to suffer from shortages. He declared: “Someone is profiting from the resale of fuel, from the smuggling of fuel.” Cochamanidis said the most immediate problem was the absence of diesel, stating plainly: “We do not have diesel.” He accused the central government of lacking the political will to resolve the shortage and stressed that responsibility for national security and fuel control ultimately rests with the central authorities. The consequences are already spreading through the productive economy. Cochamanidis warned that the diesel shortage had disrupted the end of the agricultural harvest and interfered with the collection of sorghum used for animal feed. His accusations follow earlier investigations into the alleged theft, adulteration and cross-border diversion of fuel imported through Chile, with Bolivian authorities examining supply chains involving Chile, Argentina and Paraguay.

Government and governors agree to begin the 50/50 model in 2027

President Rodrigo Paz and Bolivia’s nine departmental governors have signed a 13-point agreement in Sucre to begin implementing the government’s proposed 50/50 model from 2027. The agreement is intended to redistribute tax revenue, responsibilities and decision-making power between the central government and Bolivia’s regions. The agreement was signed at the Casa de la Libertad and establishes a technical route for gradually dismantling the country’s highly centralised fiscal structure. A special law will be submitted to the Plurinational Legislative Assembly to provide the legal framework for implementation, while the first changes are expected to be reflected in the 2027 General State Budget. La Paz Governor Luis Revilla called the meeting “historic” and said the future law would establish a progressive rather than immediate application of the 50/50 system. Santa Cruz Governor Juan Pablo Velasco said departments that currently receive no share of national tax co-participation would begin receiving funds gradually from 2027.

Sucre agreement rests on debt relief, revenue sharing and transferred responsibilities

The 50/50 agreement is built around three central pillars: financial relief for departmental governments, a new distribution of national revenue, and the transfer of responsibilities and tax powers. The objective is not simply to move money from the centre to the regions, but to align funding with the public services and duties that governors are expected to perform. The financial-relief component is intended to address debts and fiscal pressures affecting regional governments. The revenue-sharing element would bring departmental administrations into the national tax co-participation system, while the competencies component would clarify which level of government is responsible for specific services and how those services will be financed. Governors described the deal as a first step towards ending a model in which the central government controls most public revenue while regional governments carry substantial responsibilities for health, infrastructure and development. However, implementation remains dependent on legislation, technical negotiations and inclusion in the 2027 budget, meaning the political agreement must still be converted into enforceable rules.

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Pork producers warn prices could rise to Bs40 as diesel shortages cut production

Bolivian pig farmers have warned that pork could rise to 40 bolivianos per kilogramme because agreements with the state energy company YPFB have not resolved fuel distribution problems at service stations. Producers said the shortage is disrupting transport, feed deliveries and the movement of animals and meat to markets. The warning follows reports that the lack of diesel had already reduced pork production by approximately 20 per cent. Henry Chávez, manager of the Santa Cruz departmental pig farmers’ association Adepor, said the industry previously produced about 100,000 pigs per month, but output had fallen because feed could not be transported normally to farms. The risk extends beyond meat prices. Sorghum and maize are central to animal feed, so interruptions in harvesting and transport raise farmers’ costs throughout the supply chain. Producers argue that official agreements are insufficient unless diesel is physically available at filling stations. Without a reliable supply, they expect reduced production and higher retail prices to continue affecting Bolivian households.